Tuesday October 21, 2008
Short Post and a Pointer
My weblog will celebrate its second anniversary pretty soon. I know that over the past two years, I managed to entertain and interest at least one reader. I would like to use this opportunity to thank him sincerely for reading, commenting on occasion, and forwarding to his friends, relatives and co-workers.
As next week will be my last week at Sun Microsystems, who graciously served as my host, free of charge, I would really hate to see my one reader disappear into the darkness, disappointed and bitter. I want to use this stage to tell him and announce to all others, that I will keep on writing, regularly. Think of it as a change of address. The new address is http://bigmouth.imserious.org/.
I'm hoping to see you there my friend. There will be no more posts here.
Posted at 07:45AM Oct 21, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[9]
Sunday October 19, 2008
A Taste of Paradise
How does one know that it's time to go home?
The mind is a wonderful yet mysterious element. It observes, collects data and impressions, analyzes, concludes and takes action. Constructs behaviors. Forms relationships. But it also uses some forms of deception, and it finds alternatives and replacements. It learns to live with missing things, missing people. It learns to cope with difficult situations. It helps one live in harmony with one's environment. It's a master of cognitive dissonance. The ability to form the bridges between ones desired environment and the unavoidable and undeniable reality. Cognitive Dissonance is a powerful element of our ability to live in any environment outside of the mythical paradise. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance).
Rationalizing ones environment is a necessity. Without this skill, it would be extremely difficult for anyone to live away from home, from close family and friends, from familiar foods and customs, from anything outside the realm of the paradise. Paradise, in my opinion can be defined as childhood. The home where one grew up, the faces of loved ones, the smells of a favorite food. For me, the smell of my grandmother's linen, her smiling face, her chicken soup are building blocks of paradise. My mother's hug, my father's smile, my sister's commanding voice, and my brother trying to explain some complex theory in laymen terms... Heaven.
I could probably make a list of people, places, foods which construct my own personal paradise. But that would probably be too long and too boring. Plus, it would be too personal. I'm sure everyone reading this can relate to it. Can you construct your own list?
And there, two and a half years ago, my family and I left our little paradise behind and came here, to Beijing, to take part in something big.
Last Friday we were invited to dear friends at the Israeli embassy. A Friday evening, Festival of Sukkot meal. And there I was, standing there, with a few other Israelis, a few other Jews, some I've never met before, many I consider my good friends. I stood there, looking at the set dinner table, with the candlesticks, with the large braided Challah (the special and delicious bread Jews bake for the Sabbath and the Holidays), the wine bottles, the colorful salads and appetizers. And guess what: in an instant, I was in paradise, my well constructed cognitive dissonance disappeared, I was stripped of my protecting walls and defenses, and the feeling of yearning overtook me by surprise. I wanted to go home.
I would never know which came first - the cause or the effect. Did it hit me because we are going home? The answer is inconsequential and unimportant. Even irrelevant. But something was resolved something in my mind. I was ready to go. When one leaves a place, he or she always leave something behind. A part of their personality, a part of their heart. Friends, places, tastes and smells. In answer to your question - no, they can't be reproduced reliably. Only a cheap imitation would create for me the environment I'm leaving here. I'm leaving behind many friends, Israeli and Chinese. My children are leaving behind teachers, close friends, customs. We are also taking it with us. China will become part of us for as long as we live.
Ricky and Yossi, you have provided me with a taste of paradise, that I have so cleverly buried for so long. Thank you. I hope we'll be friends for life. Same for Vered and Michael, Einav and Yaniv, Yaniv's parents, David and Darren, and of course his excellency Israeli Ambassador to China Mr. Amos Nadai, thank you.
I crave my own little paradise now, I yearn for it. I am ready to go home.
Posted at 01:01PM Oct 19, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[7]
Friday October 17, 2008
A Bag with a Ticket and a Story
My wife, the curator, bought a leather bag. In the bag I found a fancy
ticket, stating the following: "The materials used have been selected
from the best existing ones. Care and quality of the highest level are
guaranteed im enery details of workmaship iln case of wordemanship
defects please sirectly contact the boutique wher the item was
purchased".
The bag is indeed a good one. I can tell. And it has a story. From
its appearance, ticketing and ticketing, you would think that the item
was actually manufactured for the US or European markets.
Incidentally, surplus in manufacturing left a few items to be sold in
the local market. But that's only the cover story, what they would
like you to believe. The poor language on the ticket gives it away.
The bag was manufactured in China, for the Chinese market, pretending
to be export surplus, and thus justifying the significant overpricing.
This isn't an isolated incidence. It's actually very common. My only
question is, a few bucks could pay for b basic proofreading, providing
a much more credible cover story. Go figure. By the way, the bag is
good, the poor language provides good grounds for fierce bargaining.
And no, it's not even a fake, it's not a recognizable brand, at least
not to me. In short: a good deal.
Posted at 04:17PM Oct 17, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[2]
Thursday October 16, 2008
Dead End?
For almost two years I have been writing the My China Experience weblog. wrote steadily, continuously, about current affairs, about China, about family and philosophy. I tried to express my viewpoints and ideas. As it turns out, quite a few people tuned in. I've been asked lately, by many, what happened. How come I write less frequently. The answer is that I'm not sure.
Did I run out of ideas? Is the world peaceful now? Shortage of current affairs? Have I stopped being the opinionated person that I am? Again, no, no , no and absolutely no way.
In the process of reflecting on not writing, I did have one resolution. I will not write anything for the sake of writing. If I don't have anything worth writing, I won't write at all.
But before I end this one up, I wanted to make a comment on a new TV show - Moment of Truth. I find it distasteful, disgusting and revolting to watch a bunch of bottom feeders, in an orchestrated competition of who can deliver a more devastating blow to their loved ones, friends and family. But the flip side of it, of course, is that just as everything is - the secrets have been out in the open for years, and sharing them for a few thousand bucks is not such a big deal. The flip-flip side of it is that still, watching low lives admit to cheating on their spouses, stealing from their parents and employers, lying through their teeth, is, well, nauseating.
And here's another thought. Barack Obama. After a long time of watching, reading, trying to understand who is less deceiving, who will do less damage to America, who has a better chance to survive, to unite America. After trying to figure to whom do I connect better. After months of listening to the mud slinging, the allegations, the half truths and half lies, I have made up my mind. I will vote for Barack Obama. The reason is that I cannot connect with his opponent, and much less with his opponent's vice presidential candidate. I pray that it will prove as a good choice. But quite frankly, can we do much worse than the present?
And of course, the stock markets and world economy... I wrote about it many times, and I think about it often. Is there a conclusion? I can't possibly write anything that's not already written. But I have an observation. I believe that the financial markets, the investment bank, the investors, had successfully completed the process of disconnecting the "real" economy from the stock market. The real economy is manufacturing, consuming, producing, saving, spending responsibly. The financial markets are about speculation, manipulation, gambling. Where do you belong? Are you part of the "real" economy? Are you part of the other economy, the one that manufactures, produces, consumes and ultimately bursts bubbles?
Lastly. Indeed the slowdown is going to be global. Advanced countries will be hit hard with zero or negative growth. Emerging markets will suffer from low growth. Are there bubbles to burst? Absolutely. I've been watching the Beijing real estate market for quite some time, waiting for a downturn. From what I'm reading lately, it has arrived. One paragraph I read in Business Week (October 13, 2008) sums it up pretty well: "Think the U.S. real estate slump is bad? Get ready for China's. PICC Asset Management, an affiliate of AIG, figures prices for residential housing could fall by as much as 50% over the next decade. One sign that China's real estate bubble may be set to burst: In Beijing the ratio of home prices to household income, a traditional gauge of affordability has hit an all-time high of 28.8. The World Bank considers a ratio of 5 to be a healthy norm".
Posted at 10:03PM Oct 16, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[6]
Wednesday October 01, 2008
The Free Market is not So Free After All
The free market:
Posted at 07:46PM Oct 01, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[3]
Friday September 26, 2008
Second Post: Mortgages, Stocks, Real Estate, Jobs and Risks
I swear (and I can prove it) that I posted this one almost a year ago.
Nov 4, 2007 5:29 PM
Mortgages, Stocks, Real Estate, Jobs and Risks
from My China Experience by Amiram Hayardeny
I
recently met this guy, a young successful professional who just bought
a house. Nothing very exciting about that (no offense of course). We
were talking about the housing market in general, and in California in
particular. I asked the innocent question: "how do young people buy a
house these days? It must be extremely expensive". To which he said,
to my great surprise: "not at all, I just bought one". He went on and
described the zero down payment, ten years interest only mortgage loan
he found. Happy person, living in a house in which he will have no
equity ten years from now, having paid interest only and putting no
down payment on the house. I pushed on. What if, I said, what if
something goes wrong? What if you lose your job? No problem, he said,
I'd get another job in no time. In fact, he said, my expertise is
sought throughout California, I would be hired in a matter of minutes.
I didn't let go. What if, I said, what if you, God forbid, get sick?
My family will help, he said. They would probably rather help than see
their son or sibling homeless. My both hands shot up to the air, I
surrender, I said, but one more question please. "Shoot", he said. I
asked if it didn't bother him that for ten years he will pay no
principal whatsoever, which shall leave him with no equity in his own
home after ten years of payment. At this point he laughed. He said
that it's nothing short of madness to pay principal, while everyone
knows that the money can perform a lot better in the stock market.
So
the reasoning is this: take the money that you would have paid in
principal, and invest it in the stock market. After ten years, you
should easily be able to pay off the principal, and still have a ton of
money leftover - the result of your great profits off the stock market
and the constant rise in real estate prices. Obviously, he said,
within ten years, the house will be worth a lot more than it does
today, and thus my equity will be worth a lot more, and I'd have a lot
of change to spare. Just before I turned around, I said "and what
about the risk?". "What risk", he said.
And after this
conversation I realized. The American real estate, as well as the
stock market have come up with the only possible conclusion given the
surrounding business reality, the business news, the Federal Reserve,
the analysts, the mortgage bankers: "whatever happens, someone is going
to save my neck". If there's a "credit crunch", the Fed will lower the
rates, creating more opportunities to take cheaper loans, and kick the
economy. Because no matter what happens around the world, America is
driven by its economy, and its economy only. The legend says that one
day after President George W. Bush Sr. had lost the election to Bill
Clinton, a big sign showed up just outside the White House saying:
"It's the Economy, Stupid". Seems that the message have been read.
The future is not important, in order to survive the present, the
economy must do well. In fact, it must do better than that. It must
show growth, opportunities, it must be outstanding, not just good.
Then again, if a bright young man has no reservations about mortgaging
his own future for his present well being, why should a country?
A
crazy idea hit me. Is it really possible that some people think that
they can't lose? Is it possible that from what they see they concluded
that no matter what, the stock market will only go up, and so will the
prices of the houses? And that there'll always be a great job waiting
for them somemwhere? Is it possible that some people will be driven to
take even higher risks as a result of the thought that they can't
lose? Have we completely forgotten the bubble? Short reminder: people
did buy property only to find that they owe the bank a lot more than
the property's worth, and people did find themselves in the position of
foreclosure when they couldn't pay their monthly payments. It does
happen.
This isn't about investment tips and ideas. This is
about understanding the difference between economic stability of a
country and an individual. Risk taking for a pension fund which
manages many billions of dollars and a household. Economies rarely
collapse. Individuals often do. There is a chance that the house in
which you live will lose value overtime, and that some of your
investments will evaporate.
Years ago, a friend of mine made a
bid on a house. The negotiation process was long and hard, during
which a large amount of money was released from some investments. My
friend thought that if he found the right investment, he could make a
few bucks until the money is needed for the house (I'm talking about
the old days, when people used to put down payments on their houses).
To make a long story short, he used a common friend who worked on Wall
Street at the time, and chose a stock on which he put much of the
money. The company went under, the stock lost much of its value. The
house was bought but with a lot less equity, and the friendship
disintegrated.
Assuming that the stock market will always go up,
that the job market will always be good for you, that your house's
value will only go up, is basically assuming that there's no risk.
This assumption is wrong, and risky. As in the world of the Corrida or
the bull fighting, the bulls don't always lose...
Posted at 11:33PM Sep 26, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[2]
Tuesday September 23, 2008
Milk and Toxicity
For a few days I've been struggling with myself. The dilemma was whether to write about something that so many are writing about. Asking myself whether or not I can provide a unique viewpoint, added value, anything. Then it came to me. I do live in Beijing, my family and I consume milk products, I read and watch the international media, and I speak to many Beijing resident. I may have a special viewpoint. Besides, I wrote about many major events I've witnessed while living here. The Olympic Games would be a good example. This is, at least in my mind, even bigger than that.
What am I talking about? The milk crisis. I call it the milk crisis, because it started a while ago, the efforts to locate the perpetrators and the victims are ongoing, and there's no end in sight. Crisis. Trust is lost, and so are lives. Young lives. Thousands of children are affected, hundreds of thousands of worried parents, imports, exports, international relations, media, and anger. Lots of anger. Fury may be a better word.
So here's the story as I understand it from reading and listening.
A few years back, there was a phenomenon called "big head babies". The phenomenon was connected to baby formula lacking the essential nutrition for babies to grow normally. Protein deficiency in particular. The deficiency was the result of watered down, diluted milk. In response, the government placed very strict requirements on the quality of milk. Protein content was now closely controlled. In response, some milk farmers found melamine (Melamine). A toxic chemical used in the production of plastics, that has the side effect of being able to fool the protein measuring sensors into believing that the watered down milk has a higher protein content than it really does.
Who won? There are no winners here. Losers only.
Melamine was supposed to be familiar to pet owners in the US. In 2007, thousands of cats and dogs died as a result of exposure to melamine in imported pet food. The imports were from China. But I'm embarrassed to say, since I was not an American pet owner in 2007, the name melamine meant absolutely nothing to me. Apparently, many others were not familiar with that name, and with the practice of "enriching" nutrition-less food with melamine.
The way from pet food to milk is short.
There's something I must say though. The story so far happened in many countries, Israel included. Precisely 5 years ago, one of Israel's top brand name baby formulas was found deadly to babies. By error, vitamin B1 was not added to the formula, and the deficiency caused several babies to die, and others to be seriously ill. The brand name lost its entire market share, and coincidentally, ceased to exist last week. On another widely reported incident, silicon compounds were found in UHT milk. The public uproar was loud and clear. Action was quick and swift.
What was observed here though is different. I've read about adding water to food to make it weigh more, using more pesticides, fertilizers to yield larger crops. I have never read about adding poison to babies' food. On purpose.
I simply can't let go of the following sentence: "Babies began dying as early as May 1. It took until September 11 for Sanlu, the giant Chinese dairy company at the centre of the initial investigation, to admit problems. Now it appears the Olympic Games may have been the reason for this fatal delay in taking action to save babies' lives". (Entire article)
Is this true? I don't know. But as a father to four, the youngest at the age of five, I am concerned, I am alarmed, and I am very upset. My children love yogurt. Corn flakes and milk. Healthy food. Is it?
Posted at 08:44PM Sep 23, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[4]
Friday September 19, 2008
Happy New (Jewish) Year
It's that time of year, as the leaves are about to fall off the trees, the temperatures are cooling down (at least in our hemisphere), the days are getting shorter, and the nights and sleeves get longer. Fall is coming, and with it, the end of the year. The Jewish calendar year that is. And inevitably, right after that, the beginning of the new year. And as one year comes to an end, and a new one begins, it is only natural to assess, to evaluate, to reflect, to enjoy the accomplishments, learn from the failures, prepare for the future.
Last year looked promising, it carried the signs of growth, of success. In some ways it was. In others it wasn't. It is up to every single one of us to do his own individual accounting with themselves and come to a conclusion: did I have a good year? Or did I not.
As I said, reflection is individual, personal, and confidential. But according to Judaism, some tasks are to be done out in the open. According to Jewish tradition, the High Holidays: Rosh Hashana - The Holiday of the New Year, and Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, are days of reflection. They are also days of asking, receiving, and granting forgiveness. During those Holidays, people are to spend time in reflection and in prayer. But prayers, and fasting, and charity giving only cover the relationship between a person and his or her God. Forgiveness is asked, and given, by the Lord, for deeds who hurt nobody but the Lord himself. The Holidays do not cover wrongdoing done between people. To accomplish that, one must ask explicit forgiveness from the individuals they may have hurt. Knowingly or unknowingly. Intentionally or not. Forgiveness must be asked, and received.
I know I may have hurt some people last year. I know that it was never intentional, it was never malicious, it was never purposeful. Nonetheless, if in any way, shape or form, I have hurt your feelings, I sincerely apologize. While there's no excuse for it, I never meant to. By the same token, I hereby grant forgiveness to anyone who hurt my feelings. My assumption is that it was never intentional or malicious. My assumption is that those who hurt me would like to be forgiven. Well, there you have it. No hard feelings. Moving on.
As fall comes, the leaves are falling off the trees, and the days gets shorter, one must remember, that new green leaves will grow again and the days will get longer in the spring. This year will be better than the last one. I wish you forget what the word "Doctor" means. I wish you greener leaves and longer days. Wider smiles and bigger hearts. I wish you tons of joy, and bunches of accomplishments. I wish you health, happiness and success.
I wish you a happy new year.
Posted at 05:01PM Sep 19, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[3]
Thursday September 18, 2008
Happy Birthday Karen
What a wonderful coincidence. Two of my favorite women in the world have consecutive birthdays...
She
is my firstborn, she was the prettiest baby in the New York Hospital
nursery with no competition. She grew up to be beautiful, curious,
inquisitive and bilingual. By the time she was six she could easily
detect and associate people and languages, and speak both English and
Hebrew fluently without a shred of an accent. I wish I had spent more
time with her in the last twelve years, but circumstances allowed us
summer and winter vacations only and the occasional airport connection
time together. Karen will turn eighteen tomorrow.
Happy birthday Karen, you're beautiful, clever, ambitious,
knowledgeable and opinionated. Your mother seems to have done a great
job. I can't believe it's been eighteen years. From the entire family
in Beijing - we love you and miss you. Wish you were here. See you
soon!
Posted at 08:07PM Sep 18, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[2]
Wednesday September 17, 2008
Happy Birthday Dorit
I know it's her when the phone rings. She opens her mouth, and the words come out of mine. I think of something, and she spells it out. We independently shop and end up selecting the same items. We like the same music, the same food, the same recreational activities. We're both family people, our best time is spent with the children, second best with each other. she gets along with my mother (which could win her a Nobel Peace Prize). She reads me like an open book. I could survive without her for days at best, but I'd much rather be with her as much as I can. She's my best friend, consultant, confidant and my life partner. She's the best.
She will be celebrating her birthday tomorrow. And I can only pray and ask that she never changes. I wish that we stay the way we are. I hope that we grow old together, to see our children to a happy and successful adulthood.
Happy birthday Dorit. You're one in a billion. Lucky for me I didn't have to date them all. Lucky for me, I found you pretty quickly. Jacob labored seven years for Rachel, but the years seemed like only a few days to him because he loved her. From December of 1989 to December of 1996 was seven years, almost to the day. Seemed like a few days.
Posted at 08:39PM Sep 17, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal | Comments[4]
This is a personal weblog, I do not speak for my employer.
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