Amiram Hayardeny's My China Experience

Fighting an Already Lost War?

When your country or your people are involved in a war you have a few choices. You volunteer for military service, you “support our troops”, you hope, you “trust our leadership”, you hate the enemy, you love your country, yellow ribbons, the works… But what if you wake up one morning and you realize that your country is involved in a hopeless war? What if you get a distinct feeling that the “leadership” is as clueless as you are? That they really have no idea what we’re fighting for, what the objective is, how do we pay for it, what the metrics of success are, and most importantly, what is the exit strategy. And you know, deep in your heart, that it’s unimportant who you vote for, you’ll most likely get more of the same.

Worst of all, what if you start getting the impression that the war was already lost, and that we’re all going through the motions of getting budgets, sending troops, pretending that we have “allies” (although it’s quite obvious that we, Americans, are putting up most funds, lives and efforts on the line) and an occasional, very local, victory.

Why have we lost? Simple: we have sacrificed our soldiers, our money, and our way of life. We have only our land to lose, and I’m not completely sure that the land won’t be next. How is that?

Four thousand soldiers dead. Five years. No end in sight.

Half a billion dollars per day for the war in Iraq. Total cost of over a half a trillion dollars, and counting. Probably less in Afghanistan, but still. Our “leadership” at the Pentagon estimated the cost to be fifty billion dollars. Imagine that. What does this have to do with losing the war? Again, simple: with the money we’re throwing away in Iraq, we could have better education, stronger economy (at least we could fix the sub-prime crisis), better access to medical services, better infrastructure. Are we losing or what?

We are getting humiliated every day at the airport, to avoid a second September 11. Do we feel safe? I think not. So we strip, we board airplanes with small little containers of liquid, in transparent plastic bags, to accomplish what? Not sure. (The one positive thing that came out of this is employment for hundreds of thousands of illiterate losers, who no specialize in opening bags and directing crowds that have no other way to go).

And for what? So Iraqis have a democracy? Who are we kidding? Imagine that: the Sunni Democratic Militia, vs. the Shiite Republican Forces running for places in the Parliament? Elections in Iraq with no violence? When hell freezes over.

And why is it? Simple still. We never had a good idea of who our enemies are. We, Americans, always think that problems are defined in our terms, and therefore the solutions are defined in our terms as well. But truth is, neither the problems nor the solutions are defined in our terms. The one and only decisive American victory in the battlefield was in Second World War, when the solution was “out of the box”. In all subsequent engagements, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, the outcome was and still is not very encouraging.

Another country that’s lost the long term battle but unfortunately doesn’t know it yet, is Israel. Israel has been investing its money, young men, and its future in fighting a hopeless war. War against a culture it really doesn’t understand and can’t relate to. Pay attention: Israel has a GDP per capita of $26,200 per year. Compare to $4,200 for Egypt, $5,500 for Lebanon, $4,000 for Syria and $2,900 for Iraq. At such high GDP, Israel has complex government systems, transportation, education, communication and industry. In short: losing doesn’t have to be in the battlefield. It can be in the classroom. It can be on the roads, at the hospitals. And guess what. It’s happening already. Education, medicine, services are going down. Good people are fleeing. Why sacrifice your life and your children for an endless, hopeless war? And mind you, the neighbors? They do just fine on pitta bread and hummous. Who’s winning here?

Same with Iraq and Afghanistan. America is bleeding literally and figuratively speaking, and the Iraqis and the Afghans are “business as usual”. The American financial system is in trouble, people are losing their homes. Who’s winning here?

And is there hope? I don’t see it yet. For as long as the world looks at some terrorists as “freedom fighters”, “guerrilla warriors”. For as long as the world thinks (mistakenly) that it’s buying some peace and quiet by “respecting” different cultures. For as long as terrorism is rewarded with states, rights, money. For as long as we’re not united against any shape or form of terrorism, we have no hope. No matter how justifiable the cause is, terrorism should never be considered as the means to accomplish it. Never. Killing women and children, on purpose, taking hostages, keeping millions of people in fear for their lives, and their livelihoods, is not acceptable as a form of fighting.

Are we there yet? Not even close…

Posted at 09:00PM Mar 31, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[4]

Sub-Prime? Recession? Depression? Credit-Crunch?

You will have to forgive me, but there's so much is going on in the financial markets, the real estate markets.  I'm being asked so many questions about the situation that I feel that once again, I have to try and summarize what I know, and well, add my own 2008 predictions to everyone's.

The root of the current crisis is a combination of the following: the need, the desire, the absolute necessity, to create growth where growth is basically impossible, the need to own, have, be in the possession of (even temporarily) of stuff that one doesn't need and sometimes can't afford and the willingness to pawn ones future in return for present goods and services.  The result is a mess.  Millions of homeowners who will undoubtedly lose their homes (which in my mind is a multiple level demagoguery - I don't believe they ever actually owned their homes, and therefore, that it was ever theirs to lose...

So here is my interpretation to the sequence of events:

Builders and lenders want to show growth.  Housing growth, however, has a lot to do with population growth (people need a place to live) and speculation (people need a place to invest).  Speculative forces and sales to previously unqualified buyers caused the prices to go up (8.5% annual rate between 1996-2005, and 11.4% between 2000-2005).  The high demand caused the lenders to be a little more flexible in loaning money, and builders to build a staggering oversupply of about 3 million units nationwide.

When builders want to sell more to people who want to have more, with the generous help of the lenders who really don't want to be left out, the result is devastating.  (I recently read that even the credit rating companies were off guard, unable to warn the lenders of their customers' inability to pay off their loans).

Feeling confident, hand having made so much money on their wise real estate investments (not too many investments can yield 11% annual rate, or even 8%), people took their homes to the neighborhood pawn shop (no, not literally.  They actually re-financed).  They got as much equity as they possibly could out of their house.  Not the investment house, the house they were living in.  The money was wisely invested in consumer goods: cars, vacations, gadgets, and other "stuff".  But as it happens, the "variable rate" loans started to kick in, and all those who took creative mortgages, with "no money down", "interest only payments", realized that they simply can't keep making the payments.  Defaulting came next.  Eviction second.  Foreclosure third.  Walking away from the American dream house fourth.  As mortgages we being unpaid, the entire (mysterious if I may say so) investment industry backed by mortgage loans went south.  Bankers reported billions in bad loans (not yet over).  What's even more interesting is that nobody has found a way yet to determine how to valuate those investments.  Public companies delayed publishing their financial statements trying to figure out how exposed they are to this disaster.

And then someone woke up and said: we've been giving billions upon billions of dollars to people who can't pay us back.  Lets see how much we can retrieve, and even more important - lets call the party off.  So credit lines were cut viciously, interest rates on loans jumped.  Party is over.  The entire economy is being pulled down.  People are more careful spending their money, sales at the mall and at the car dealer are going down.  Since consumption drives the American economy, a recession is now being mentioned in every other conversation.  Money is becoming expensive.  And then, on a big white horse, wearing a brilliantly shining armor, comes the Federal Reserve and lowers the interest rate.  And he lowers it again, and again.  Until the dollar - which is no longer a good investment - presents significant problems to anyone who's doing business in the US.

And if you think about it, it all started trying to generate wealth.  Create growth.  And as a final sarcastic comment:  The Sarbanes-Oxley was put in place to safeguard the economy and the investors from an Enron-like disaster, which compared to the sub-prime crisis is a bathtub vortex compared to a level five Hurricane...

No savings, conspicuous consumption, bad loans, bad credit, no credit, bad job, big house, no job, no house, imported car, no car...  The market has spoken: brace yourselves.  Times are bad, and are getting worse.

Posted at 12:52PM Mar 24, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[4]

Music To My Ears

I love music.  When I was really young, I was a choir boy at our local temple.  I had a sweet, innocent, clear voice with a high pitch.  It was a large temple, and on a good Friday night, quite a few hundred people would attend the services.  It felt good to sing, it felt good to see the appreciating looks.  But what I really liked about singing, was the structure.  The tune, the lead vocals, and the background.  The harmony between the different tones.  I was young then, but later on in life I realized why music always appealed to me back then, and why it still does.  It's mathematics.  The notes are put in structures that gives the feeling of some bigger picture.  Like every note is essential, and must be in place, exactly, to have the entire tune sound wholesome and complete.  Back then I didn't understand why certain songs, or tunes, were making me anxious, uncomfortable, uneasy.  Later I realized that tunes with notes out of place make me feel that way.  It's as if a house is built in order, and then one brick is misplaced, and I get the feeling that the entire structure is about to collapse. That's why I can't stand Jazz.  It doesn't seem to have the harmony I need in music.  It's unpredictable, and it always makes me feel that something is missing, incomplete.

Clearly I don't mean to say that Jazz is “bad music”, and I am even ready to accept that it does have structure, but I don't get it...

One night, after services, Shlomo Ravitz came to me and asked to speak to me.  He must have been well over eighty at the time.  But he was a great composer of Jewish temple music, and his tunes are still sung every Friday, Saturday, and Jewish High Holiday around the globe.  His granddaughter, Yehudit Ravitz, is one of the best Israeli rockers ever.  She really rocks.  Anyway, I, the eleven year old choir boy, received a job offer from the great Shlomo Ravitz.  He promised me the equivalent of a few hundred dollars, if I agreed to sing with his professional choir on the High Holidays.  He warned me that there will be rehearsals, and that he will teach me how to sing to notes.  He also promised that I will get two tickets for family to attend the services.  After consulting with my parents, I agreed.

My grandmother and my mother came to the services.  It was fun.  As the only eleven year old in a choir of professional singers, some were actually opera singers, I had some privileges.  I didn't have to be on stage all the time.  But when I was on stage, it was purely professional.  Shlomo Ravitz was a tough conductor, and he had a tendency to correct all the time.  He was a perfectionist.  He taught me to keep trying until it sounded absolutely perfect.  Until I felt it in my heart that the note was in place.  Eversince, I can expect nothing less from music.  Any music.

I sometimes think of music as a great way of expression, and also as a form of engineering. When an idea for a tune comes to one's head, it's nothing but a fetus, it's too simple to be performed.  It needs flesh and skin and bones.  It needs depth and breadth.  It needs rhythm and soul.  It needs work.  Notes must be place, and replaced.  Instruments must be chosen carefully and their part has to be made up, independently and in relation to the rest of the instruments, and the vocals.  It's fascinating to hear a song as a simple, flat tune, and then in its entirety, with all the instruments and the lead vocals and the background.  Sometimes it's hard to even tell it's the same.

Of all instruments, I love the bass the most.  It's not a “front” instrument, it doesn't lead, at least not upfront.  To the untrained ear, it's barely heard.  Yes I love the lead guitars, and the percussion.  I love the keyboards (particularly the Yamaha keyboards which can emulate any sound between a cricket and God himself).  I love the flute, the saxophone, the clarinet, even the trumpet.  But the bass, with its almost invisible way of leading the music, I love the most....

Posted at 02:23PM Mar 20, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[2]

Save the Earth and a Few Bucks Too

“Dear Guest", says the little sign in the bathroom at the hotel,
"Everyday millions of gallons of water are used to wash towels that have only been used once.  You make the choice: A towel on the rack means I will use again,  A towel on the floor means please replace Thank you for helping us conserve the Earth's vital resources”. 

So far, a quote.  Now, what's written between the lines:
"And a few bucks too.  If you decide to re-use your towel, we don't have to wash it, we don't have to dry it, and if there are many of you guys, then over a course of a year we may actually save a bundle.
You are requested to present your good will.  We will bring our bank account to the table.  That's fair, isn't it?

My response to this is simple: do you want to save the earth, then pledge a penny to the World Wildlife Foundation or some other organization of your choice.  It just doesn't make sense for you guys to pocket the entire savings.

Having said that, let me state clearly: I don't change towels daily at home, and I most certainly don't when I'm away.  Same for linen.  In fact, I have the “Please Do Not Disturb” sign on my door usually for the duration of the trip unless it's over five days.  All I'm asking is for the Hospitality Industry to contribute its share, donate money to the World Wildlife Foundation.

Posted at 01:24PM Mar 20, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[0]

From the Mouths of Babes

Mom: "Daddy's on the phone, come Guy, he wants to talk to you"...
Guy: "I'm tired".

Mom: "Guy, Daddy wants to talk to you, he bought you some gifts, come to the phone"...
Guy: "I'm not feeling very well"...

Since he was a baby, Guy was using sanctions against me when I went on business trips.  From the minute I left the house, to about two hours after I came back, he simply didn't want to talk to me.  Not a word.  Only a couple of hours after I have returned, and the open-the-suitcase-give-me-my-presents ceremony was over, he would make a funny face at me, and then we would hug, and the routine would be back to our lives.  Until the next trip.

I usually go for less-than-one-week business trips.  I try to leave on a Sunday and be back by Saturday.  This trip was special.  I left on Saturday, and I will have been out a total of eleven days.

Guy was practicing his usual sanctions this time around.  But when it came to the sixth day, he had the following conversation with his mother:
Guy: "When is Daddy coming back?"
Mom: "In a few days".
Guy: "When did he leave?"
Mom: "Last Saturday".
Guy: How many days will he be gone altogether?"
Mom: "Eleven".
Guy: "Isn't that an awful lot of days?"

A day later, the eighth day of the trip I got a call.  It was Guy.  On Skype.
Guy: "Daddy, I love you, I miss you, and I want you to come back already".
Me: I wanted to say many things, but nothing came out for quite a while.  Then I managed to say: "Me too Guy, I want to come home already.  I will see you in a few days".

Then I understood something.  He was able to manage for up to a certain amount of time.  Then, when he understood that this is going to be longer, different, he forgot about his sanctions, and told me what he really felt, that he missed me.

From the mouths of babes...

Posted at 01:05PM Mar 17, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[1]

Customer Service Situations - Turning Things Around - Making Things Right

As a blogger, I look at things as either "blog worthy", or "not blog worthy".  The following is a special incident that started as another customer service nightmare, but turned into a customer care success story.  Satisfied customers usually tell a few people of their satisfaction.  Unsatisfied, or rather pissed customers tell hundreds, and in this day and age - thousands - using all kind of electronic media.  Blogging included...  I decide to break this tradition.  Here's a good customer service story - for my few readers to read.

I checked into the Silicon Valley Four Seasons Hotel on Wednesday March 13.  The hotel is spectacular.  The rooms are designed beautifully, with every corner given the right attention, every lamp, every piece of furniture.  The bed is the most comfortable I slept in.  Ever.  It's spotless, shiny, pretty, and seems to be brand new.

As I was getting out of the elevator on the seventh floor, I realized that there will be trouble.  Some of the doors were open, and people, who appeared to be managers in training, were working on something in multiple rooms.  It was rather noisy, but I thought that if I close the door and turn on the AC, I'll be able to get a good night sleep.  I was almost right.  In the morning, early that is, there was a lot of commotion in the hallway, but since it was time to get up anyway, I didn't pay attention.  Shower and to the office.

When I came back in the afternoon, trying to get some work done, I realized that a door was opening and closing at the amazing frequency of once every two minutes.  This was the first time I called reception and asked if there was some seminar going on.  There was.  Before I could get nasty, a sweet voice offered to move me to another room.  I said I'd be packed in five.  Ten minutes later I was in another room.

Next morning, Saturday, banging next door.  Phone call, reception, nasty, and a sweet voice offering another move.  I declined.  The sweet voice promised that the banging will be done in thirty minutes.  It was.  I left, and came back, and a bottle of wine was waiting in the room.

Lesson: do the right thing, and earn a good reputation.  There's a lot at stake.  A business should never forget that the paying customers are the ones who keep the business alive.

To LC, Guest Relations Manager at Four Seasons: you are a natural.  You were able to take a potentially uncomfortable situation and turn it around completely.  Well done!  Four Seasons should be happy to have you on staff!

Posted at 09:40AM Mar 16, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[1]

Bogus Post - No Clue

Not sure why this entry was posted twice...

Posted at 09:40AM Mar 16, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[1]

High Rollers - The Elliott Spitzer Story - from a Slightly Different Angle

I was thinking about it a lot.  About the story, about the person, about whether or not he should be forgiven, or whether we should feel sorry for him.  I also thought about whether or not I should write about it.  Right about, well, now, I realized that if it stuck to my mind for so long, and with such intensity, then I should definitely write about it.  Elliott Spitzer.  The former governor of the State of New York.

And the terms I'm thinking about are slightly different than what I have read in the news media about this story.  I was thinking along the following lines.  Lets assume that one is a born gambler.  And lets assume that he realized that the thrill of betting money on horses, cars, cards, sports is simply not cutting it for them.  How would one go about in setting a bet so colossal, so daring, that practically puts everything he or she had on the line, and see how much can they lose.

I think if I was one looking for a bet like that, I'd follow in Elliott Spitzer's footsteps.  I'd be born to a rich family, and get the best education to begin with.  As if Princeton isn't enough, I'd go and throw Harvard Law on top, just to bring up the stakes.

I would then get married to another Harvard Law gal, who happens to be as smart as she is beautiful.  But still, losing it all at this point doesn't seem worth the effort.  I would have to try harder.

How about joining the Manhattan District Attorney's office, under the legendary Robert M. Morgenthau, to pursue organized crime?  Getting better?  Just you wait.  Lets go after the Gambino family, and run for the office of State Attorney General of New York, and go after “white collar” criminals.

I know that this sounds enough already.  After all, at this point in time, betting and losing it all would certainly a big deal: a stellar career as a lawyer, a nice family, stature, money, everything.  But as you know gamblers are always looking at raising the bet just a little more.  So as an icing on the cake, I'd run for governor, on a ticket of “stopping corruption”, win the job and start pursuing corruption wherever it is, while making sure everyone knows not to mess with the governor, because he has a bad temper.  Not the state senate, not the state officials, and most certainly not all the corrupt SOBs everywhere around the Empire State.

I believe now would be a good time for a bet.  So let's call an extremely expensive call girl (out of curiosity I wish that someone would explain to me what can a call girl possibly do for $5,000.00 per appointment).  And wait.  Make the call again, and wait again.  Eight times, allegedly.

But I believe the wait was well worth it.  I think that Elliott Spitzer should be recognized in the Guinness Book of Records as “The Man Who Put the Most on a Single Bet – and Lost”.

As the “lesson of the day”, look around you.  If you have even 5% of what Mr. Spitzer had, and you feel that in whatever it is you're doing right now, you're jeopardizing it, stop right there.  For one, you may not want to lose what you got.  And besides, there's no way in hell you'll break this record.

And just in case you're wondering, there's another little twist here.  Can you try and count how many enemies has this man collected over the years?  And how many of them populate the state prisons, and the federal ones?  It is quite possible that Mr. Spitzer will be found guilty and send to serve a short sentence in one of the state or federal penitentiaries.  Can you imagine the welcome committee he's expected to meet?  I really wouldn't like to be in his bright orange suit...

Posted at 06:18AM Mar 15, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[2]

Link to Other Blogs - Permission Granted!

Carrie Chu politely asked for permission to link my blog to hers.

Carrie, you are most welcome to do that, in fact, I'm flattered.  And to anyone who wishes to do the same, my permission is hereby granted!

Posted at 05:39AM Mar 14, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[1]

Challenging "Cultural Differences"

How many times have you seen something done differently than the way you're used to doing it?  How often were you willing to dismiss it as "cultural difference"?  How far are you willing to go with dismissing unfamiliar ways of doing things as "cultural differences"?  What about society?  Mankind?  How willing are we to accept differences as cultural, when do things change from "cultural differences" to "unacceptable behaviors"?  How about - neither?  You do it one way, I do it another way, but neither of us represent cultures - we simply are different...  In your attempts to be EPC (Extremely Politically Correct) do you ever find yourself looking at something that seems to be fundamentally wrong, yet you have the complete inability or unwillingness to classify it in any other way other than "cultural difference"?  How quick are you to classify something as such?  Do you put yourself to any scientific methods in determining that maybe this behavior of one person or two or fifty, doesn't really represent a complete "culture" but just a few (or more) individuals that are in no way representative of whatever culture they were brought up in?  Did it occur to you that in mistakenly classifying something as "cultural difference", you may be doing some serious injustice to an entire culture?  Did it occur to you that you may seem extremely patronizing in doing that?

Many questions, I know.  But this issue of "cultural difference" has been on my mind for a long time.  I have traveled to and in various parts of the world, and I have witnessed many unfamiliar behaviors, and classified some as CD.  But I have seen some behaviors that are simply not acceptable to me.  As it turns out, many of them were not cultural differences, they were simply individual behaviors.  Classifying these behaviors as cultural differences would have done injustice to entire cultures.  Not a good idea.

My anchor for this post was the recent announcement by the UN that it is determined to eradicate female circumcision by year 2015 (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hwA2rv5QOLzBmGgLwKw4MH5Ypf-wD8V35FO00).  This customs has been around for hundreds of years.  It's practiced in many countries and many walks of life.  "According to a statement from the U.N. agencies, between 100 and 140 million women and girls are estimated to have undergone female circumcision, and 3 million girls are estimated to be at risk of undergoing the procedure every year.  It is practiced by Muslims and Christians alike, deeply rooted in the Nile Valley region and parts of sub-Saharan African, and is also performed in Yemen and Oman. Through migration, the practice has spread to Western countries like Britain."  As obvious, this practice is most certainly associated with a culture.  To some it could pass as "cultural difference", and therefore dismissed as "they are different, and we don't judge them for being different".  But in pledging to eradicate it, the UN, a worldwide representative organization suggests in as many words, that this is not a cultural difference, but rather an unacceptable human behavior.  (Cannibalism could also be classified as cultural difference).

I must add that I wish the UN would eradicate male circumcision as well.  Indeed, many of my Jewish and Muslim friends would condemn me for saying that, but I stand by it.  I think it should be declared unacceptable behavior and be eradicated as well.

What about the practice of killing unfaithful or stray women by their own families?  Slavery?  Wife beating?  suicide bombing?  Child labor?  Chemical waste dumping?  Can any of these be classified as cultural differences?  I think not.

So lets explore the other side.  Let me use an interesting favorite: cow dung as cooking fuel.  You may think it's funny, but some will classify it as a cultural difference.  Which I think is ridiculous.  People don't choose to use cow dung as cooking fuel.  They do it because their choices are very limited.   In fact, they only have one choice.  Classifying limited choices as cultural differences is, in my opinion, patronizing.  Worse, when classifying it as a cultural difference, one has no drive or incentive to try and change it.  I'm almost positive, that most, if not all users of cow dung as cooking fuel would much rather use a General Electric stove top powered by natural gas or electricity.  By the same token the practices of working the fields using farm animals, transportation by bicycle, washing by the well or by the river, and eating small unsatisfying meals are not cultural differences, but manifestations of poverty.

In my quest to understanding real cultural differences, I stumbled upon this article (http://www.cnr.berkeley.edu/ucce50/ag-labor/7article/article01.htm).  It's entertaining, and educational at the same time.  Generalizations are irresponsible and patronizing.

What are the real cultural differences then?  Not so easy to tell.  In fact, very tricky.  I would generally suggest research.  If you encounter a behavior unfamiliar to you, don't just dismiss it as cultural difference.  Ask.  Try to understand whether you're witnessing an individual behavior, or whether it is really a representative of an entire culture.  Present your way of doing it, appreciate the other way, and move on.  You have been exposed to a cultural difference.  But don't be so quick to classify.  Imagine this: you're attending a dinner with a Norwegian guy, who following the first bite into his lobster, vomits all over the table.  Two possible outcomes: One, the poor guy got some stomach virus, he probably needs to rest and drink a lot.  Two, it is customary for all Norwegian males to vomit after the first bite into their dinner lobster.  Obviously ridiculous.  If you encounter something that is illegal or unethical to the best of your knowledge, don't be too quick to classify it as cultural difference.  Most likely it's some unacceptable behavior by an individual.

And remember.  We're all human.  We can communicate and we can talk, and we can make mistakes.  We can compare behaviors, and learn from each other.  On certain things we're very much alike, and on others we're completely different.  That's being human.

Posted at 12:12AM Mar 12, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[3]