Amiram Hayardeny's My China Experience

Dead End?

For almost two years I have been writing the My China Experience weblog.   wrote steadily, continuously, about current affairs, about China, about family and philosophy.  I tried to express my viewpoints and ideas.  As it turns out, quite a few people tuned in.  I've been asked lately, by many, what happened.  How come I write less frequently.  The answer is that I'm not sure.

Did I run out of ideas?  Is the world peaceful now?  Shortage of current affairs?  Have I stopped being the opinionated person that I am?  Again, no, no , no and absolutely no way.

In the process of reflecting on not writing, I did have one resolution.  I will not write anything for the sake of writing.  If I don't have anything worth writing, I won't write at all.

But before I end this one up, I wanted to make a comment on a new TV show - Moment of Truth.  I find it distasteful, disgusting and revolting to watch a bunch of bottom feeders, in an orchestrated competition of who can deliver a more devastating blow to their loved ones, friends and family.  But the flip side of it, of course, is that just as everything is - the secrets have been out in the open for years, and sharing them for a few thousand bucks is not such a big deal.  The flip-flip side of it is that still, watching low lives admit to cheating on their spouses, stealing from their parents and employers, lying through their teeth, is, well, nauseating.

And here's another thought.  Barack Obama.  After a long time of watching, reading, trying to understand who is less deceiving, who will do less damage to America, who has a better chance to survive, to unite America.  After trying to figure to whom do I connect better.  After months of listening to the mud slinging, the allegations, the half truths and half lies, I have made up my mind.  I will vote for Barack Obama.  The reason is that I cannot connect with his opponent, and much less with his opponent's vice presidential candidate.  I pray that it will prove as a good choice.  But quite frankly, can we do much worse than the present?

And of course, the stock markets and world economy...  I wrote about it many times, and I think about it often.  Is there a conclusion?  I can't possibly write anything that's not already written.  But I have an observation.  I believe that the financial markets, the investment bank, the investors, had successfully completed the process of disconnecting the "real" economy from the stock market.  The real economy is manufacturing, consuming, producing, saving, spending responsibly.  The financial markets are about speculation, manipulation, gambling.  Where do you belong?  Are you part of the "real" economy?  Are you part of the other economy, the one that manufactures, produces, consumes and ultimately bursts bubbles?

Lastly.  Indeed the slowdown is going to be global.  Advanced countries will be hit hard with zero or negative growth.  Emerging markets will suffer from low growth.  Are there bubbles to burst?  Absolutely.  I've been watching the Beijing real estate market for quite some time, waiting for a downturn.  From what I'm reading lately, it has arrived.  One paragraph I read in Business Week (October 13, 2008) sums it up pretty well: "Think the U.S. real estate slump is bad?  Get ready for China's.  PICC Asset Management, an affiliate of AIG, figures prices for residential housing could fall by as much as 50% over the next decade.  One sign that China's real estate bubble may be set to burst: In Beijing the ratio of home prices to household income, a traditional gauge of affordability has hit an all-time high of 28.8.  The World Bank considers a ratio of 5 to be a healthy norm".

Posted at 10:03PM Oct 16, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[6]