Amiram Hayardeny's My China Experience

Fighting an Already Lost War Part II

I don't usually write sequel posts.  But this time I felt that one was in order.  Two issues needed further explanation in my mind: what does it mean to "win a war", and what does the GDP comparison have to do with anything.  Being me, I will probably write some more views following the two topics.

What does it mean to win a war.  What's victory?  I propose that there isn't one definition, nor is there agreement on the definitions.  Here's my interpretation.  To permanently drive the enemy away from its claims for land or riches.  If you read carefully, the word permanently is key.  Lets take Israel for example.  Israel, despite its willingness to pay heftily for the right to be where it always has been (there was a continuous Jewish-Israeli settlement in most parts of Israel for thousands of years), was unsuccessful in driving the enemy's claim for it's entire territory.  It did win a couple of battles over the years, but it most certainly didn't win the war.  I contend that it simply can't.  The reason is that the claims will remain for the foreseeable future, possibly indefinitely.  Demographics and perseverance may prevail eventually.  Does Israel seem to be a strong country?  Indeed.  Does it have the most powerful military in the Middle East?  Most certainly.  Is it able to use this powerful army to eliminate its enemies' claim for land and riches?  I think not.  Is there a victor in this conflict?  I can't see it.  Is there a loser?  I see one at least.  Possibly more.  Two neighboring peoples sacrificing their best, brightest and youngest, raising generations upon hatred, terror, suicide.  Victory?  Don't think so.

What does the GDP have to do with all this?  Simple.  The more you have, the least you want to sacrifice, the more you have to lose.  For Israelis (and Americans) to go back to basics (i.e. bread, cheese and an occasional olive) is unthinkable, unacceptable, unimaginable.  For Israel's neighbors that's not a long way at all.  Israel is not doing so badly.  But is it up to its potential?  No way!  A million Israelis have left the country since it was established in 1948.  Many of them are in the US, inventing stuff.  All those guys could have been placing Israel at the top of the game from a high tech viewpoint.  (indeed, you may claim that Israel is at the top of the game, I contend it could have been even more).  Israel spends on security relative to GDP more than any other country in the world.  Spent on education and medicine, even art, it could have been heaven on earth.  Instead, it's losing its edge on education and science.  Sorry to raise the obvious question again: who's winning???

The US is in a similar situation.  The US spends $1B on each Stealth Bomber.  Who knows how many billions on an aircraft carrier.  What if all this money was spent on public medicine for example?  Wouldn't it cover all those who are middle class, but work in jobs without medical insurance, but make too much to be eligible for Medicaid?  Maybe allow a few more thousand of less privileged people to get college education?  Who's winning?  A few more years in Iraq will bring America to its knees, while for the Afghans as well as the Iraqis, it will mean a few more years of bread, cheese and an occasional olive.  And if the objective is indeed to have a democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq, then I'm willing to bet, a loser will be identified, soon.  Take a guess.  Who would that loser be?

Posted at 09:21PM Apr 01, 2008 by Amiram Hayardeny in Personal  |  Comments[2]