Amiram Hayardeny's My China Experience

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http://blogs.sun.com/ChinaExperience/date/20080526 Monday May 26, 2008

Global Warming - a DIfferent View

It all started with some strange guy who started warning about "global warning" a few years ago.  Many heard the news item and thought - there's another lunatic with a warning.  They all remembered Nostradamus, and his friends in every century, who diligently predicted the end of the world.  Prophecies which were updated as soon as they didn't come true.  Turn of centuries, midnights, full moons, sun storms, comets, all came and went, and the earth people (that's us) remained.  They didn't repent, they didn't pray, they continued to invent new stuff which created more warnings, which never came true, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

Then came the warning about the melting of the icebergs.  Some concerns were registered, particularly in the far northern hemisphere, where most residents are Eskimos and seals.  Most of the population just turned to one another and said "oh well", and went on to the local pub for a drink.  Next came a really scary news piece about the rising temperatures, and that apparently the last decade was the hottest on record or something.  Some eyebrows were raised, but most people went on to the beach, were the warm breeze took off the edge of the outstanding heat.  Life went on.

Then WNN aired some really really disturbing footage about the cities along the shores of the oceans, and that in a few years, they will all be covered in seawater.  People in those cities went outside and checked whether their windows and doors will be above the new sea level, and same for their favorite stores, pubs, parks and so on.  They also went ahead and checked that aunt Petunia's home would definitely be covered with water, and so would be the police station.  Once that was out of the way, they went on with their business.  The ones who discovered that their homes will most likely be underwater, took a few sessions with the local psychotherapist, to refresh their denial techniques.  They too went back to the annual barbecue which was producing smoke as much as the local utility's chimney.

Then the media claimed with absolute certainty that the "permafrost in Russia" is melting, and that will let out millions of metric tons of some unknown Methane gas into the atmosphere, doubling the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in a very short time.  There was some anxiety, but it turned out to be unrelated.  It was about the local football team losing miserably this season.  The people remembered from their biology classes that methane is also produced when sheep in New Zealand fart.  So, they said, what's another real big sheep flatulence?  They went on to walk the dog, who happened to have had chilly for dinner...

Then came the food shortages, which was the result of the droughts, which was a direct result to the warming of the earth, and the lack of rain.  Desertification became a word known by every single third grader.  But that was more because of that show "Are You Smarter than a Fifth Grader?" than because of the actual drought.  Some nervous breakdowns were recorded around the world, but WNN aired a piece about desert resorts, and everyone calmed down and booked their vacations early.  Prices skyrocketed.

Nobody got too excited over the "dying of the rain forests".  Many people just said they can do without them, and the rain is really needed elsewhere...

Then the earth was on fire.  Literally.  Wildfires were spotted everywhere, burning everything in their way.  But it was too late already.  The earth burned, then the ice melted, the cities were covered with water, there was no food, water was contaminated, livestock around the world died of plagues, the earth died.  So did we.

I don't know if global warming is real, and if it is how real and how quick it is.  But just in case it is, don't you want to do something about it?

Comments:

The earth has been warming for 18,000 years (last glacial max was 16,000 BC).

Even if ALL human caused greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today it would not make a significant difference.

With all the mercury we are pumping into the environment why are we obsessing on CO2? In North America we dump 40 tons a year from coal, 35 tons a year from garbage incineration into the air and another 30 tons into landfills.

I've been in favor of a more resource efficient society for a long time. I've supported rmi.org since the early 1980s but this human caused, GHG scare is silly.

Ok 4 questions and answers. Please assume everything I say is a lie and verify it for yourself!

Q1) Is water vapor a GHG?
A1) Yes. In fact it is the most powerful one.

Q2) What % of the GH effect can be attributed to water vapor?
A2) I've seen numbers from 70% to 98%. 94% is the number I’ve seen from the EPA.

Q3) How much CO2 from all sources goes into the atmosphere each year?
A3) 180-200 billion tons.

Q4) How much CO2 is released into the atmosphere by humans?
A4) 5-6 billion tons a year?

Ok now do the math. We are 5% of 6% (excluding all other GHGs). We and CO2 are not the problem with the planet warming.

By the way now that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is over (PDO) we can look forward to weather like the early 1970s. Remember "galloping glaciers"? Are we entering another ice age?

Don't worry you can count on the government will go from taxing carbon emissions to fight global warming to taxing us to help fight off an ice age.

Looking at the long term (the last 1 million years) earth has had several "inter-glacial" periods. They last 15 to 20 thousand years and then quite abruptly earth goes back into the deep freeze. It happens fast even on a human time scale not just geological one.

So we are 18 thousand into this inter-glacial period. Perhaps the chap at St Petersberg Observatory is correct. In our lifetime we will see the start of the next ice age.

Cheers

Posted by tim on May 26, 2008 at 11:37 PM CST #

Q: If you tip a scale, how much percent of the weight do you need to offbalance it ?

A: That depends on the scale.

We don't know how stable the climate is, so the absolute amount of man made pollution vs. the inventory of the earth athmosphere does not tell, whether we have an effect on the climate or not.

The taxing is of course more an instrument to get more money from the people, than an immediate help to the climate.

Looking in the past doesn't help, since migration cannot help anymore, since any inhabitable place on earth is inhabited.

Posted by Knut Grunwald on May 27, 2008 at 01:33 AM CST #

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