Friday December 03, 2004 | Colm Smyth's Weblog Gestalt Blogology |
![]() |
|
You Know What I Want to Know - The Wisdom of Crowds
I guess you could read many people's views about James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds, and that's probably the best and most fitting way to find out if you will like it. Surowiecki's idea is that, contrary to the message of negative terms such as mob psychology or groupthink, a crowd can be smarter than an expert. Something about this concept is so appealling, but after reading it I am even more convinced that crowds are stupid and that only individuals thinking independently (while comparing notes) are smart. If
you look closely at his many examples, they don't show that a random
collection of people is smart; they show that taking the average of the
views of a collection of people thinking individually leads you
to an accurate result:
In my view, the suggested wisdom of "crowds" is the result of either
positive feedback loops or an algorithm that averages a collection of individual
less accurate results. But what does this really add to the use of
Bayes' Theorem to use
conditional probabilties to process
subjective accounts of evidence? An individual who has a chance to
learn from another is more likely to achieve a better result. Don't get me wrong - this is a lovely book, well worth reading; it is often inspirational to see examples of collections of individuals achieving a good or even perfect result. But these collections of people are not groups let alone crowds in the normal sense. For me the standout best example of "the wisdom of crowds"
(according to Surowiecki's meaning of "crowd") is open-source software
development. When the individual hackers are talented and the quality
standards of users are high, the results of a rapid feedback loop of
continuous development can be excellent. But this is a "group" only in
the sense of a collection of individuals who modify their individual
behaviour, not in the sense of people who are coordinating their group
activity. In a nutshell, when and why do groups fail? Here's my attempt to state this; they fail when they look inward as a group, developing group norms that override individual intelligence; the group then is simply an exaggeration of the impulses of herd leaders. And the group succeeds when it truly seeks the best result from a collection of individuals, each individually seeking the best answer and modifying it based on information and opinions from the others. This here is a blog entry. How did you find it? Beats me, but the most successful blogs are by definition the result of many iterations of people making a decision based on an accumulated or average decision made by others. Fame or recognition operates in the same way, in part based on individual decision, in part based on herd momentum. The wisdom of crowds? I can't call it that. To me it is positive feedback loops, new sources of information and each individual making the most intelligent decision that they can at any moment in time that will lead to the best result. Not so romantic, but essentially the truth. Should you buy The Wisdom of Crowds? Well, don't buy it because it's in some top 10 list; buy it because you value and agree with the reviews of others who liked it. As Monty Python has it, we are all individuals. So long as that remains true, then collectively we're pretty intelligent. (2004-12-03 11:33:05.0) Permalink Comments [2]Post a Comment: Comments are closed for this entry. |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Have you ever done the team building exercise where you rank what you will take with you for a walk across the desert after a plane crash. You rank the items first by yourself and then as a team. The team almost always does better than the individual. You are right though it is not the crowd that does it. It is the diverse combined wisdom of the individuals in the team. I think we sometimes think we know best than a group. We forget that groups are made up of individuals I've just started reading the book. Thanks for an interesting blog.
Marion
Posted by Marion Vermazen on December 03, 2004 at 03:54 PM PST #
Posted by Colm Smyth on December 03, 2004 at 05:44 PM PST #