Kirk Parcel's Weblog. A weblog on finance, management, the IT industry and trends. With news and views from Sydney Australia.
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20090617 Wednesday June 17, 2009
The convergence of the Cell Phone with the NetBook


This is interesting.   It has recently been announced at the Computex computer show in Taiwan that small new "netbook" computers from Acer Inc. will come with Google
Inc.'s Android operating system if buyers desire, instead of Windows
from Microsoft Corp.


The move by Acer, the world's
third-largest PC maker, could raise Android's chances of becoming a
widely used alternative to Windows on mobile computers.


I see this as start of the convergence of the cell phone and the computer.  We are seeing smart phones take on the capabilities of a small computer with everything from access to email to spread-sheet and word processing capabilities.   This is the next step, a small netbook that is more like a large  smart phone, with a full size keyboard and greater computer like functions and operating a Android OS rather than Windows.




An acer laptop running Google's Android  


It will be interesting to watch Microsoft's response.  This is no doubt Google is encrouching on Microsoft's turf.   Vista was a disaster on netbooks for Microsoft and Microsoft was forced to continue to support Windows XP and sell it a lower price. The word is Windows 7 is being geared for netbooks as well as larger computers.   Microsoft will need to get its netbook strategy right.




posted by Kirk Jun 17 2009, 12:34:14 PM EST Permalink

20090612 Friday June 12, 2009
Are you multi-failing instead of multi-tasking?


Research shows multi-tasking can take more time and result in more errors than does focusing on a single task at a time.


"We know that if you have a person attending to different things at
the same time, they're not going to retain as much information as they
would if they attended to that one thing," said Nathan Bowling, an
expert in workplace psychology at Wright State University in Dayton,
Ohio.


Yes I agree.  I think multi-tasking increase the chance of error which means you end up taking more time than if you just did one thing at a time.  I also think it leads to a poor professional perception.  There is no doubt you can tell when someone has sent an email from a Blackberry when say in meeting or on the phone.  Full of mistakes and just does not look good and professional.



Addicted ... emailing and texting during meetings is an office no-no 


And guys having "sent from my Blackberry" in your email signature is an indication to me that you have not taken time over the response and given the focus that I expect.    Does not impress me that you sent an email from you Blackberry at 10:00PM on Friday night.  Was most likely sent from a bar anyway.


posted by Kirk Jun 12 2009, 05:42:48 PM EST Permalink

Austalian economy not in recession, but not out of the woods


Lots of economic data in the past week giving a good indication as to where the Australian economy is at.  Last week we saw the GDP numbers which showed that the economy grew by 0.4% in the March quarter, which was slightly higher than market expectations and means that Australia has technically avoided a recession which is defined as two quarters of negative economic growth in a row and is the economy of the developed economies  in the world that is growing.  However  if you look at the numbers the 0.4% growth was due to mainly a growth in exports on the back of a lower exchange rate, declining imports and increased consumer spending on the back of massive government stimulus including $900 payments to 90% of tax payers.



Australia and major trading partner GDP growth (2009 forecast)


The problem is that 0.4%  economic growth is not enough to sustain demand for labor, which is why you are seeing increasing unemployment.  When I studied economics at university the rule of thumb was that you needed 3% economic growth to sustain demand for labor, especially when you have an increasing population and increasing migration.   Since November, the percentage of the workforce without a job or
wanting more work has risen from 11 per cent to 13.4 per cent, the
Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday.  The unemployment rate in Australia is at 5.7% up from 4% a year ago.  I think increasing unemployment is a better indication of a recession than GDP.  



The Australian economy has held up during the world recession.  In contrast, the US lost 4.5 million jobs since September 2008, Britain
203,000, Japan 560,000, while Canada - which with its solid banking
system and mineral wealth is often compared to Australia - has lost
360,000 jobs.  The reason for this is the strong demand for Australian resources especially from China, the strength of the Australian banking system and that the central bank had room to move on interest rates once the world recession hit, very low levels of government debt and the strength of the Australian economy going into the global recession. 



Note the sharp rise in Australian unemployment since late 2008... however has stabalised over recent months.


However we are not out the woods.  Measurements like business investment are down significantly and job ads are down 50% from a year ago which indicates 2009 and well into 2010 will be difficult times. 


posted by Kirk Jun 12 2009, 10:19:10 AM EST Permalink

20090610 Wednesday June 10, 2009
No Netbook from Apple


There is always a lot of anticipation around Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference and this year was no exception.   There was talk of  a Mac Tablet and a lite version of the iPhone.   I expected Apple to introduce a netbook or a cheaper, smaller laptop.  However they would have being acutely aware of cannabalising their current line-up with a cheaper version.



The key announcement was the iPhone 3G S, which seems to be playing catch-up on functions missing from the 3G, especially an improved camera with video recording (finally), the ability to run more than one application at once and a cut-and-paste functionality. 




I still think lacking a physical keyboard is a drawback of the iPhone.  It will be interesting to see how the Palm Pre goes up against the iPhone 3G S.   



The iPhone 3G S  




posted by Kirk Jun 10 2009, 11:24:41 AM EST Permalink

20090604 Thursday June 04, 2009
Is the Palm Pre the iPhone Killer

Based on some of the earliest reviews the Palm Pre could be the iPhone killer.   I think we all know that the iPhone has its faults e.g. not been able to run multiple applications at the one time and the poor quality of its camera and no video capability.



Looks like the Palm Pre is very cool and functional.  I like access to a QWERTY keyboard on a smartphone and in my opinion is the big let down of the iPhone, especially for the corporate user.  Have you ever tried to write an email while walking or on a bus with an iPhone or to do it one handed?  Good luck.


Interesting that the Pre runs Palm's new webOS and not MS for mobile, which has the recent trend for Palm.  I carent wait to get my hands on one.


Here  are some first reviews of the Pre:


Walt Mossberg, Wall
Street Journal
:


"It’s a beautiful, innovative and versatile hand-held
computer that’s fully in the iPhone’s class. It’s
called the Pre, and it comes from Palm, the company that pioneered
the hand-held computer in the 1990s."


David Pogue, New
York Times
:


"The Pre, which goes on sale Saturday, is an elegant, joyous,
multitouch smartphone; it’s the iPhone remixed. "


Sinead Carew, Reuters:


"Pre is an attractive alternative but it remains to be seen if
consumers have enough patience for its quirks."


 Joshua Topolsky, Engadget:

"To put it simply, the Pre is a great phone,
and we don't feel any hesitation saying that. Is it a perfect
phone? Hell no. Does its OS need work? Definitely. But are any of
the detracting factors here big enough to not recommend it?
Absolutely not."




posted by Kirk Jun 04 2009, 04:16:08 PM EST Permalink Comments [2]

20090603 Wednesday June 03, 2009
Will the Australian economy be in recession?

A technical recession is two quarters of negative growth.   In Australia the December quarter saw a contraction in economic activity as measured by GDP of -0.5% and the March quarter numbers come out here today at 11:30A local time which in just over an hours times.



There is a lot of debate as to exactly where the Australian economy is.  Last week was saw that in Australia Private Capital Expenditure  plunged by 9% - the most in 21 years however yesterday we saw a rebound in export numbers  on the back of strong demand for mineral exports to China and agrictural exports to Asia and strong retail trade figures on the back of a massive government stimulus and cuts in interest rates by the Reserve Bank.



My tip..  a contraction of 0.1% and yes Australia will fall into recession.  However if say a technical recession is avoided by the barest of margins, the big increases in unemployment recently is proof enough that we are in what feels like a recession.  





Australia's GDP rate % change.  note the fall of in 2008.


posted by Kirk Jun 03 2009, 10:28:49 AM EST Permalink

20090602 Tuesday June 02, 2009
The Netbook Revolution

I am writing this blog entry on my Aus Eee PC 1000H netbook PC at my favourite cafe, Pablos & Rustys near the Sun Gordon office in Sydney.   This is the future.   The netbook concept exploded in 2007-2008 and continues in 2009.   



The Asus Eee PC 1000H 


A netbook is a small portable laptop computer designed for wireless communication and access to the internet in a small lightweight package.  The key difference between a netbook and a laptop is that a netbook has no built-in disk drive which only adds to  weight and cost.   Who needs a disk drive today anyway.  I carry around my files on a memory stick attached to my key ring and I can download all of the software applications I need off the internet.  



By late 2008,  netbooks had begun to take market share away from laptops.  It is estimated that  almost thirty time more netbooks were sold  in 2008 (11.4 million)than in 2007 (400,000) and in 2009 sales are expected to jump to 35 million.



What is interesting is that the netbook concept started with the One Laptop per Child project and was more aimed as a low cost entry point for schools and developing countries.  However it is the mobile professionals  and families looking for a second laptop for home that is  driving the explosive growth.



My Eee PC 1000H gives me all I need.  Wireless access  to email and the net and came with StafOffice pre-installed in a package  that is about 1KG and fits easily into my brifecase.



Asus Eee PC 1000H Ultra-Portable PC Features












posted by Kirk Jun 02 2009, 09:38:13 AM EST Permalink Comments [1]

20090601 Monday June 01, 2009
Denver Nuggets go out of the NBA Finals


The Denver Nuggets season is over going down in game 6 - 119 to 92 at Denver.  The Nuggets will be regretting not closing out games 1 and 3 when they had the chance.   I knew that the longer the series went, the harder it would be for the Nuggets.  The Nuggets are a young team and are re-building, they had to close out the series in four or five games.  The Nuggets will learn from the experience of reaching the Conference Finals and come back next season a stronger team .



I watched game 6 of the Majic and Caves series here in Sydney yesterday lunch time live.  Dominant performance by Dwight Howard for Orlando with 40 points.   For the Caves James was off his game with only 25 points and when Le Bron does not bring his A Game, Cleveland are going to struggle.






No Kobe vs Le Bron in the finals this year.  However a Lakers vs Majic final series  should be good.   Howard is in hot form and may take it up to Kobe and co.  My prediction..  Majic in 6.    The finals will be on free-to-air TV in Sydney LIVE.  Looking forward to it.



Dwight Howard of the Orlando Majic.  One awsome athlete and with 40 points in game six he can take up to Kobe and the Lakers in the finals.  




posted by Kirk Jun 01 2009, 12:01:43 PM EST Permalink

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