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20090603 Wednesday June 03, 2009
Will the Australian economy be in recession?

A technical recession is two quarters of negative growth.   In Australia the December quarter saw a contraction in economic activity as measured by GDP of -0.5% and the March quarter numbers come out here today at 11:30A local time which in just over an hours times.



There is a lot of debate as to exactly where the Australian economy is.  Last week was saw that in Australia Private Capital Expenditure  plunged by 9% - the most in 21 years however yesterday we saw a rebound in export numbers  on the back of strong demand for mineral exports to China and agrictural exports to Asia and strong retail trade figures on the back of a massive government stimulus and cuts in interest rates by the Reserve Bank.



My tip..  a contraction of 0.1% and yes Australia will fall into recession.  However if say a technical recession is avoided by the barest of margins, the big increases in unemployment recently is proof enough that we are in what feels like a recession.  





Australia's GDP rate % change.  note the fall of in 2008.


posted by Kirk Jun 03 2009, 10:28:49 AM EST Permalink

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