Friday June 12, 2009
Lots of economic data in the past week giving a good indication as to where the Australian economy is at. Last week we saw the GDP numbers which showed that the economy grew by 0.4% in the March quarter, which was slightly higher than market expectations and means that Australia has technically avoided a recession which is defined as two quarters of negative economic growth in a row and is the economy of the developed economies in the world that is growing. However if you look at the numbers the 0.4% growth was due to mainly a growth in exports on the back of a lower exchange rate, declining imports and increased consumer spending on the back of massive government stimulus including $900 payments to 90% of tax payers.
Australia and major trading partner GDP growth (2009 forecast)
The problem is that 0.4% economic growth is not enough to sustain demand for labor, which is why you are seeing increasing unemployment. When I studied economics at university the rule of thumb was that you needed 3% economic growth to sustain demand for labor, especially when you have an increasing population and increasing migration. Since November, the percentage of the workforce without a job or
wanting more work has risen from 11 per cent to 13.4 per cent, the
Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday. The unemployment rate in Australia is at 5.7% up from 4% a year ago. I think increasing unemployment is a better indication of a recession than GDP.
The Australian economy has held up during the world recession. In contrast, the US lost 4.5 million jobs since September 2008, Britain
203,000, Japan 560,000, while Canada - which with its solid banking
system and mineral wealth is often compared to Australia - has lost
360,000 jobs. The reason for this is the strong demand for Australian resources especially from China, the strength of the Australian banking system and that the central bank had room to move on interest rates once the world recession hit, very low levels of government debt and the strength of the Australian economy going into the global recession.
Note the sharp rise in Australian unemployment since late 2008... however has stabalised over recent months.
However we are not out the woods. Measurements like business investment are down significantly and job ads are down 50% from a year ago which indicates 2009 and well into 2010 will be difficult times.