Thursday March 24, 2005

Change is guaranteed

Robert Scoble the well known Microsoft blogger had a posting today about a church that recently switched away from Microsoft. He highlighted something I firmly believe. Microsoft will not be the dominant player forever.

We all have the tendency to assume that the way things are today is the way they will always be. Back in 2000 very few of us understood we were riding a bubble waiting to burst. Today we tend to assume that interest rates will stay relatively low forever and that Sun stock will never again see 10. Similarly people can't imagine that anyone but Microsoft will ever dominate the desktop. But no company stays dominant forever and especially in technology no platform dominates forever. There was a time when Ashton Tate was the dominant data base company and there was time when nobody could imagine a company like DEC going away. I am not suggesting that Microsoft will disappear but I am saying that I don't believe they will dominate forever.

It is important for all of us to consciously fight our tendency to assume that things can't change. I try to remind myself of the fact that what is today will change. I also try think about how I should factor that thinking into my decisions whether they be financial, technical or personal.