The Observation Deck

Views on software from Bryan Cantrill's deck chair

Wednesday December 05, 2007

Boom/bust cycles

Growing up, I was sensitive to the boom/bust cycles endemic in particular industries: my grandfather was a petroleum engineer, and he saw the largest project of his career cancelled during the oil bust in the mid-1980s.^[1] And growing up in Colorado, I saw not only the destruction wrought by the oil bust (1987 was very bleak in Denver), but also the long boom/bust history in the mining industries -- unavoidable in towns like Leadville. (Indeed, it was only after going to the East Coast for university that I came to appreciate that school children in the rest of the country don't learn about the Silver Panic of 1893 in such graphic detail.)

So when, in the early 1990s, I realized that my life's calling was in software, I felt a sense of relief: here was an industry that was at last not shackled to the fickle Earth -- an industry that was surely "bust-proof" at some level. Ha! As I learned (painfully, like most everyone else) in the Dot-Com boom and subsequent bust, booms and busts are -- if anything -- even more endemic in our industry. Companies grow from nothing to spectacular heights in virtually no time at all -- and can crash back into nothingness just as quickly.

I bring up all of this, because if you haven't seen it, this video is absolutely brilliant, capturing these endemic cycles perfectly (and hilariously), and imparting a surprising amount of wisdom besides.

I'll still take our boom and bust cycles over those in other industries: there are, after all, still not quite yet software "ghost towns" -- however close the old Excite@Home building on the 101 was getting before it was finally leased!

[1] If anyone is looking for an unspeakably large quantity of technical documentation on the (cancelled) ARAMCO al-Qasim refinery project, I have it waiting for your perusal!

(2007-12-18 10:13:20.0/2007-12-05 07:44:31.0) Permalink Comments [2]

Comments:

Whoa... not to many people know about "Saudi" ARAMCO refinery as I worked just a few gates outside of the plant... small world... by the way..loved the video!

Posted by Ken on December 09, 2007 at 05:41 AM PST #

Because ARAMCO featured so prominently in my mother's life (she grew up in Ras Tanura and went to ARAMCO schools) -- and because ARAMCO and my grandfather were inextricably intertwined -- I have always been interested in it, if only for the selfish reason of better understanding my own history...

Posted by Bryan Cantrill on December 10, 2007 at 04:53 PM PST #

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