Sunday October 05, 2008
An audience of two
The price of democracy
As any fule kno, last Monday Congress voted against a $700 billion measure intended to resolve the global credit crisis. The bill was backed by the President, the secretary of the treasury and leaders from both political parties. Several politicians who were initially opposed to the first draft of the bill had demanded and obtained concessions including formal oversight, assurances that the bankers who caused the problem wouldn't be able to profit, and assurances that the taxpayer would get the opportunity to recover our investment. But that wasn't sufficient to get the bill through. On Friday the measure passed, thanks in no small part to John McCain who - as he made abundantly clear to ayone whou would listen - had suspended his election campaign in order to help negotiations. By Friday the bitter pill was "sweetened" to make it more palatable to the right with around $150 billion of tax cuts and credits that won't be repaid. These were proposed tax cuts that Congress had blocked because they weren't funded in accordance with their budget rules; it meant spending money that wasn't balanced by tax increases or spending cuts. The revised bill got 58 more Yea votes on Friday than it did on Monday. So that's over $2.5 billion per vote. $150 billion also works out at around $2,000 per family. Thanks so much for your help, John. And thanks to everyone who voted against the bill on Monday. American Democracy: the best that money can buy.
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This is rumour control. These are the facts.
All week I've been waiting for someone - politician, journalist, ANYONE - to stand up and do this. It hasn't happened. What we have been told is that there's "toxic debt" in the system, and that's whet the government wants to buy. It's still not clear to me whether that means the government is going to buy up the defaulted mortgages themselves and thus guarantee that the debt will be repaid. Or whether they plan to buy the actual houses themselves. Or if they are only prepared to buy the "derivative securities" which the banks have created. It's not clear to me what the government and taxpayer is getting for their money, because it sure as hell isn't the same deal that Warren Buffet got, and it's not clear to me why he can arrange a better deal. OK, so he's the world's greatest investor; that somehow gives him more clout than every single other person in the USA combined? Obviously this is Still-President Bush's job, but neither he nor Paulson seem capable of doing it. Neither are the presidential candidates. And Brian Glover died in 1997, so I guess we're stuffed.
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The bailout bill.
From figures I've heard quoted recently my estimate is that there's somewhere around 75 million houses in the USA. The average price is around $200K, which values the total housing market of the order of $15 trillion. (Someone else I was chatting with claimed that the housing value is in fact around $47 trillion, of which the mortgage market represents about half, making $24 trillion, but I have no way of verifying that. With an average value of $200K that would mean almost one house per person - man, woman or child. I find that a little hard to believe even if some of us do have more houses than we can count, so I'm guessing the real figure is between the two.) Most of that debt is perfectly good debt; there was a time when you needed to have a 20% deposit or equivalent in equity to get a loan, otherwise you had to take on a higher rate second mortgage or pay PMI. So how much of that is bad debt? Well one article I read that was dated February of this year quoted the national reposession rate at around 2%. Let's say it's higher now; call it 3%. 3% of $15T is $450B of loans in default. But of course those houses aren't worthless, they are simply worth less than the outstanding debt. Let's say that they are worth only 50% of the value; that's probably a huge undervaluation, but it puts a price on the "subprime crisis" of $225 billion. $225B might seem like a lot of money (because it is) but Washington Mutual alone was worth $300B. The simple fact is that if this was simply a matter of the housing bubble bursting with $225B of debt then the market would easily be able to absorb that. So what's the problem? Well apparently it begins something called Credit Default Swaps (CDS). The idea is that if a bank takes on a loan that ends up being defaulted on they can use CDS to offset the risk of that, as a kind of hedge or insurance. Which is all well and good. Except that there's no requirement that you actually hold a debt in order to take out a CDS. Put it this way: I have a Toyota that's insured for $20K. If I have an accident, the insurance pays me the value of the car. A CDS is rather like you taking out an insurance policy on my car. If I have an accident, you get paid. And you can insure my car for any amount you like. So in effect it's an open-ended bet that I won't crash. So the actual problem is, instead of hedging against bad debts, Banks have been using CDS as a speculation tool. Was all of this legal? I have no idea. It seems odd that something which has had such a catastrophic effect on the world economy should be legal, but then that's the Free Market for you. But when the government talk about the "toxic debt" they aren't talking about the defaulted mortgages, they are talking about these bad speculative bets. So if nothing else, surely someone has been criminally negligent if not downright fraudulent. Knowing this, what I find frustrating is comments putting the blame on anything other than the banks. One target is Property speculators. Certainly there was a lot of this going on, but that's your Free Market at work. At least these people were buying real, tangible assets and gambling with their own credit. Another target is too much regulation (whaaa?) for which the solution is yet more deregulation (Whaaa?). John Boehner claimed that private capital can be drawn into the market by removing regulatory and tax barriers that are currently blocking private capital formation. Too much private capital is sitting on the sidelines during this crisis. Of course it is, they could see that it's a disaster and they pulled out in time. And yet Warren Buffet has invested $5B in Goldman Sachs, so clearly it can't be that bad and there can't be that much regulation. If there really was money to be made you can bet they'd be lining up to get some.
Anyway, the first draft of the bailout bill has been published and you can read it here. It's 110 pages of the usual legal
Update Bradford and Bingley was nationalised this morning. I really don't like the sound of this quote: But many banking analysts argue that the nationalization of the bank could be a boon to taxpayers one day, unlike the U.S. bailout plan, in which the government is simply buying up bad debts.
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CEC 2008 is coming...
The key change is a far greater emphasis on "training milestones and certification". What that would seem to mean is a change from the breakout sessions of the past, whereby you could just go and listen to any talks that sounded interesting, to a more formal training event, including hands-on labs. This will mean no Call For Papers as we have done in previous years; the breakout subject matter will be decided by the CTOs and Sun Learning Services. As a result of this the event will be longer - from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon - but there will be a lot fewer attendees; the FAQ puts the number at 2,000 plus about 200 partners. There will be the demo area (AKA the "Pavilion") but it'll only be open from Sunday through Tuesday, and pavilion workers won't be allowed access to the breakouts. Also there won't be a closing session; the last day will be for breakouts and accreditation. The layout will be entirely different from last year. For one thing the general session will be held in an area that we didn't have last year. The hall that the general session was in will now be used for breakouts, the Pavilion, Email, games and will have wireless access. (I'm thinking of renting an Espresso bar - I bet I could make a fortune.) They (and I'm not entirely sure who They are, but I do know it has a capital T) are talking about having wireless pretty much everywhere, That means bring your laptop and token card, and for once adequate power outlets WILL be provided. Yes, it only takes 8 or 9 years to get the message through. There will be the usual SunRay email stations; this time we are planning on a single big server rather than several little ones, which really didn't work that well. I'm also hoping to get the latest SunRay 2s with the built-in VPN firmware (as suggested by Chris last year) so that we don't have to worry about SWAN access and security. I'm hoping that the presenters will be instructed to use their own laptops; it'll certainly make things a lot easier if we don't have to set up a workstation in each room. If you followed my CEC blog last year you'll know that all the equipment had to be removed and locked away every night, because there's just no way to physically secure most of the convention rooms. Makes for a real headache. So far I haven't heard anything about evening entertainment. Following last year's EPIC FAIL at the Palms it wouldn't surprise me if They just abandoned the idea entirely. It's hard to network when you can't hear yourself think, let alone what your friend is saying. I haven't heard anything about videos, though I'm considering making one anyway if I can find the time. I'll be blogging as I did last year, and I'll be on Twitter. I'm hoping that Twitter will fix the "track" feature which has been broken for months, but I'm thinking of trying to set up an auto retweeting Twitter bot if I can figure out how. Anyway, that's it for now; if there's anything else I can tell you, I will. Hope to see you in Vegas. Oh, and remember to bring your camera.
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Why You Should Care About Twitter Spam: A rebuttal
First off, let me confirm the obvious: Twitter is a very useful service, which has had rapid growth and consequently is having some scalability problems. There are alternatives, such as Plurk, FriendFeed, Identi.ca (do your own damn links) but none of them have the simplicity, power and mindshare that Twitter has. I am happy with Twitter and want it to succeed. Kevin compares twitter spammers to arsonists, damaging the system. I think that's a little alarmist. I would compare them to the plastic rings that hold cans of soda. Remember how we were all encouraged to cut them up so they wouldn't harm wildlife? Let's look at some numbers. Right now I have 172 followers (F). Let's say that my daily tweet count (C) is around 25. Now assuming that the load on the system is equal to F * C then my daily impact is 4300. If 25% of the people following me are spammers (by any definition that you care to provide) then blocking those spammers would reduce my impact on the system by 1000. (Of course this assumes that blocking actually helps; I don't know how Twitter is coded, so if blocking is implemented as an independent blacklist then we could in fact be increasing the impact.) By contrast, Robert Scoble has over 28,800 followers. He also tweets a damn sight more than I do. Every one of his tweets has the same impact as a week's worth of my tweets. Is it reasonable to expect the likes of Scoble - or Leo Laporte (>46,400) or Kevin Rose (>48,700) - to go through their lists and weed out spammers? I think not. Yet if they don't, my pitiful effort is the equivalent of trying to solve the energy crisis by unplugging my TV every night. So how do twitter spammers work? Well for a start they follow you in the hope that you'll follow them. My philosophy is that anyone can follow me, but I choose who I want to follow. If you're replying to me I'll see your replies in the reply tab (when it's working) or I'll get a message since I track my own ID (except that track hasn't worked for several weeks). Following me won't get me to follow you. The other tactic is to post messages that get attention. Common tactics are to re-tweet breaking news, and apparently they are now harvesting the public timeline for posts to retweet. Will blocking stop that? Not really. The thing about the public timeline is that it's, well, public. Anyone can read it. Once I tweet, or post a picture on twitpic, it's out in the public domain. Good luck trying to get it back. So a spammer with half a clue would use a separate account that wasn't being blocked by anyone for monitoring the public timeline so as to get the most out of it. As I said at the start, Twitter has scaling problems. They need to address those problems without impacting the real users. The broken features need to be fixed. Yes I want to help, but is my blocking fake users really going to help? Not until Twitter implements a system that measures how many people are blocking an account and takes action accordingly.
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I'm seeing lots of buzz over this Wii Fit device. I can't help but think i've seen this all before. 25 years ago in fact. Guess what goes around comes around.I just wish that somebody would port Lemmings to the Wii instead.
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Configuring host networking for VirtualBox
First impressions: VirtualBox is pretty slick. It installs easily and the User Interface is clean and intuitive. (You can insert your own sarcastic that's-cos-we-didn't-write-it comment, I'm above things like that.) I did have some minor issues with virtual machines hanging, particularly during installation, but that was easily resolved by increasing the amount of memory to 1024M (default of 512M is just too small) and enabling VT-x under the Advanced settings. The only real problem I had was with the networking; I simply couldn't get it to work. By default the system provides a virtual NIC configured with NAT. The idea being that this is intended as a desktop solution primarily; you probably want to run this on your laptop and are happy if it can see the interwebs. So you leave the settings at teh default, select DHCP networking when you install Solaris and you're away. But that's no use if the virtual OSes need to talk to each other, or you need to log in remotely. So reluctantly I consulted the manual. But in this case the manual wasn't clear either; there was lots of info about configuring for Linux but not much for Solaris. I got anecdotal hints from a few people - Solaris prefers the Intel PRO/1000 device driver, try using /usr/lib/vna rather than the vnic_setup script - but still no joy. I could snoop the network but couldn't get out. Finally Bertrand Lesecq, a Support Engineer from Sun France gave me the final piece of the puzzle - thanks Bertrand. So here it is. Enjoy.
First off, you need to configure a virtual NIC using /usr/lib/vna To do this, use ifconfig to find out what the physical nic is. On my system it's e1000g0: flags=201004843To configure the virtual NIC you just run /usr/lib/vna (interface) (mac address). My interface is e1000g0 and its real mac address is 00:1b:24:df:ee:08 I decided to change the last octet to 8A. Having configured the NIC you plumb it (this step may/should not be necessary depending on who you talk to, but I did it and it worked) but you must not assign an IP address. # /usr/lib/vna e1000g0 00:1b:24:df:ee:8a vnic0 # plumb vnic0Now virtual NICs won't survive a reboot, so I decided to write a simple startup script. Since I intend to have 5 virtual hosts I need 5 VNICs. Here's my script. No, I didn't use SMF. I'm old school. Bite me.
# cat /etc/rc3.d/S99vnic
#!/sbin/sh
state="$1"
case "$state" in
'start')
echo 'Plumbing VNICs'
for MAC in 8a 8b 8c 8d 83
do
VNIC=`/usr/lib/vna e1000g0 0:1b:24:df:ee:$MAC`
ifconfig $VNIC plumb
done
;;
'stop')
;;
*)
echo "Usage: $0 { start | stop }"
exit 1
;;
esac
The next thing to do is to tell VirtualBox to use the virtual NIC. Simply click on a host that's powered off, click the Settings button and click Network. Ensure that Enable Network Adapter and Cable Connected are checked. For Adapter Type select Intel PRO/1000 MT Desktop (82540EM). For Attached to select Host Interface. Change the MAC address to the address you provided to vna earlier. Under Host Interface Settings type the VNIC name, vnic0
Now go ahead and install Solaris on the virtual node. When it comes up it should see an ethernet adaptor e1000g0 which you can configure with a real IP address. The system should behave exactly like a real system; you can ping the router (which you cannot under NAT) and ssh into the host remotely, assuming that you have the services configured to allow that.
Happy 30th Birthday, Spam!
Happy f5g birthday, Spam.
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2005 Juan Gil Jumilla
I recently discovered this wine in Costco. For $12 it seemed a good price. I don't tend to drink much Spanish wine, but a few vocal enthusiasts in my various wine circles have been banging the drum for Spain, saying it's not all Rioja and Ribera del Duero. In particular, Jumilla is often cited as an area that's producing great wines at really good prices, and this is a great example. The varietal is Monastrell, also known as Mourvèdre or Mataro (and various other names too). You don't often see Mourvèdre bottled on its own - the only local examples I can think of offhand are Bonny Doon's Old Telegram and Cline's Small Berry - but it's often used as a blending grape in Rhone style wines. This is a big, fruity wine. It's nice right at the start, but I opened one on Wednesday evening, drank half and left the rest overnight in the fridge - on Thursday it had opened up and was much better. So I'd definitely encourage decanting it - simply pour it into a 2 pint jug and back into the bottle, it'll make a big difference. If you like big reds but don't have a big budget this is definitely a wine to try.
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The problems with Twitter
The problem with twitter is that it's like being at a cocktail party. There are conversations going on all around. Meanwhile there are several TVs all tuned to different news channels. It's information overload. It's crazy. And the filter is way too coarse. What twitter needs is a way to group the people you follow. All that it natively supports is the ability to select whether updates get forwarded to your mobile phone or just to the web. So the noisier tweeters get relegated to web-only status. An additional option is the "track" feature. By tracking myself I can see responses to my posts from people that I'm not following at all. But those posts only go to my mobile phone, not to the web. Something else that Twitter desperately needs is the ability to reply via email to a direct message. Come on guys, it's not that hard to do. Rather than a no reply address it would be trivial to implement something like, say, a one-use-only reply address that expires after a fixed period. Now the good thing about Twitter is that the API is open and published. There are all kinds of clients already available and presumably someone is working on things like this. But it would be nice if the facility could be built into the back end rather than an add-on.
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The power of Twitter
Conventional news reporting just doesn't cut it in a situation like this. You don't want to be listening to reporters on the TV or radio while they describe the long periods of nothing happening. You'd wait until the evening news and catch the edited highlights. But that was then. These days everyone is a news reporter. First there was "live blogging", where people would post play-by-play account of some event from their laptop. But now people have mobile smart phones that can send messages, take photos and even live video. At the core of this is twitter - a simple service that allows you to broadcast and receive short messages both via the web and SMS. It's mainly used for casual chatter, but yesterday it came into its own and proved it has real value. Over the course of the afternoon I saw regular updates from @LaughingSquid (AKA Scott Beale) and @RockBandit (AKA Dave Schumaker). I discovered that reports from other twitter users were being aggregated by @SFTorch. And I learned that the protesters were organising themselves via @TeamTibet. Twitter wasn't the only way to see what was going on. @RockBandit and others were uploading photos in real time to Flickr and video to Qik. Whenever I had a couple of minutes to spare I could check the latest updates and even talk back to the people that were there. I got a real laugh when I heard that someone had Rick-rolled the torch - something that would never have got a mention elsewhere. Yesterday evening I watched the coverage on BBC World News. Rajesh Mirchandani was presenting in the traditional news manner, with the outside broadcast crew. Being constrained by the limitations of traditional media he was encamped by the ferry building and wasn't in a position to follow the story as it changed. He even made reference to receiving regular status updates on his mobile (without explicitly mentioning twitter). So there you go. Twitter isn't just about chinposin' and colour wars. It's (sometimes) more than just inane chatter, You MUST click on this!!! and I'm streaming live right now, come chat!. It's actually a useful tool. PS: If you want to read how Chinese media reported the event, click on this link: http://snipurl.com/utter-bullshit. (I love snipurl) PPS: Want to see a ridiculously staged photo? Check this out. The torch was never anywhere near that point and the dozens of omnipresent blue clad Chinese security guards are nowhere to be seen. Damn, I wish I had Photoshop skills - it would be fun to combine that image with something like this.
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DirecTV HD DVR: A review. Part 1: Introduction
Now I've been a DirecTV subscriber for a few years, and a TiVo owner for much longer. I actually have three TiVos; a Sony standalone with lifetime subscription (though currently non functional), plus a Sony and a Hughes DirecTiVo units. The Hughes is used just for Zoë's programmes, the Sony for ours. It's a bit flaky for various reasons, but I can't fault the software and user interface. The problem is, the relationship between TiVo and DirecTV soured. These days TiVo makes HD units, but they don't work with DirecTV. So I'd have to switch back to Cable (Comcast), buy a new box and give up on my two DirecTiVos. On the other hand if you threaten to leave DirecTV they will give (ok, lend) you a HD unit for free, provided you sign a new 2 year contract. So I went for it. Now installation is supposed to be free, but the installers are subcontractors who don't work for DirecTV and they always find a way to make you pay something. When my first dish was installed the "gotcha" was a $40 charge for hooking up the second LNB; DirecTV install supposedly only covers you for a single wire. This time it was a $75 charge for a custom mounting bracket. Yes it's a scam, but what the hell. So on to the actual DVR. The good news: Picture quality is excellent. I bought a cheap 40' HDMI cable off the net and was amazed - the picture quality of standard definition broadcasts, particularly the Bolton Wanderers Premier League games on Fox Soccer Channel and Setanta, is way better than on TV or over a S-Video cable. On HD broadcasts the clarity is excellent. There are some problems with certain channels such as TBS HD who don't seem to set the aspect ratio correctly, but overall the quality is a major leap forward. The bad news is with the software and ergonomics. Frankly DirecTV learned absolutely nothing from TiVo. The user interface is horrible, the remote is badly designed and the feature set leaves much to be desired. I will elaborate in the next posts.
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2005 Clos des Andes Malbec
I spotted the 2005 Clos des Andes in Costco at the weekend for $12 - the shelf-talker said it got 90 points from Wine Spectator. I had the 2004 last year - my note on CellarTracker says Bags of fruit, held its own against a curry and only got better with air. Definitely a caseworthy red. Great QPR so I grabbed one. Did you ever cook something and think there was something missing? Then you realise that you forgot to add salt, and suddenly it all comes together? Well this wine is like that. It's tight and tannic, and on the palate there's something missing, it's hollow, like it needs salt or something. Perhaps it would have been better with a meal rather than on its own. Maybe it just needs time; there was a glass left over so I put it in the fridge and will try it again tonight. But even if it does improve, to be honest I think you'd be better off paying an extra $3 and getting the Catena Zapata Malbec instead. I had one of those recently and it's lovely. Big mouthful of blackberries, soft tannins, not much acidity. Great value, but not one for the cellar. I'd also be on the lookout for the 2005 Terrazas de Los Andes Reserva. (Make sure it's the Reserva, there's also a regular one that Safeway carries for about $7, which is nowhere near as good.) I've yet to try the 2005 but Costco had the 2003 Lots of blackberry and dark cherry. Good finish. Bet this would cellar well, but it's unlikely to get the chance. and 2004 Big and fruity. Tannins are soft at first but become pronounced after a while in the glass. Has the stuffing to age, but it's so good now I see very little point and they are highly recommended.
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Rant: Facebook doesn't matter
People are going nuts over the Zuckerberg/Lacy interview at some conference in Texas. I'm not even going to link to it, if you don't already know every excruciating detail of it then you can find it here. The problem I have is with the group-think that facebook somehow matters. It doesn't. It's just another dumb waste of time website. That's not to say that the concept of social networking is in anyway invalid, it's simply that social networking predates facebook and will continue long after it's gone. I was social networking on BIX when Zuckerberg was still in nappies. Internet search matters, but look what happened to Excite, AltaVista, Lycos etc. So facebook is just one player in an expanding game. The idea that the company is somehow worth $15 billion is patently absurd; it's based on the fact that Microsoft invested $246 million in the company, whereas in reality they paid $246 million for advertising rights and got 1.6% of the company for free. So why do I say it doesn't matter? Because people are fickle. The aforementioned Excite was once one of the top search engines, today it's gone. Something else came along and everyone drifted away. Facebook has nothing that anyone needs; nobody really needs to play Vampires and Werewolves, to publish their personal details online for anyone to see, to sell their demographic details to anyone in exchange for the right to throw sheep at each other. Chances are that Facebook is not the next Google. It's the next hula hoop. It's the next pet rock. It's the next furby. And that doesn't just apply to facebook, it applies to all the social network sites. You'd better figure out a business model, a revenue stream and a backup plan, preferably one that doesn't utterly disregard personal privacy. Because there's a new idea around the corner that will make people realise how irrelevent you actually are.
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How to cook rice (2)
8 oz basmati rice In a large frying pan heat some oil. Fry the mustard seeds and peanuts until the nuts are starting to turn golden brown. Add the curry leaves and fry for a few seconds. Remove from the heat. Add the rice and stir. Add a spoonful of the Puliogare paste and mix it in. Add more paste if you think it needs it. You can eat this as a dish by itself, or serve it with sambar or dal or even curry - it's up to you.
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