Tuesday May 23, 2006
JavaOne: Programming Three Screens
I spent a couple of days at JavaOne last week. It was great to
see folks that I don't get to connect with very often. It was
great to see projects that I have been so closely involved with thrive
- from Java 3D to JOGL to Darkstar. Because Java is so much in
everyones mind right now, I thought I would touch upon the three
screens topic again, but from the programming angle this time.
What programming environment let's you touch all three screens on the
most device? That would be Java of course. And it's not
just because there are so many mobile devices out there. Let's
look at the three screens separately.
First, we have the desktop. Java has been on the desktop since
it's inception. Java was the largest driving force behind the
massive casual games explosion. All casual games used to be built
with Java. The fragmentation with the Microsoft VM and the
emergence of Flash technologies caused the Java environment to be less
pervasive in the casual games market, but the number of desktop Java
applications continues to expand. Every JavaOne I see new desktop
Java applications being deployed - like the great trip photo cataloging
swing application demoed in
keynote. The number of features, tools supported, and
applications possible on the Java desktop platform is still rapidly
expanding.
Next up is our friend the mobile Java platform. This platform is
finally maturing to the point of truly innovative technologies coming
to market. From the SavaJe
device to Disney
Mobile and ESPN mobile
and all of the other great examples in
keynote, the mobile platform is finally starting to show its true
form and what lies ahead. Then of course there is the
is getting close to being finalized. One look at that platform is
a sure sign that services that were once only available on the desktop
will soon be coming to your phone.
That takes care of two screens. The third being the TV.
This is where I really wanted to let people know about some up and
coming technologies. First, there is
next gen high definition DVD standards. The programming
environment for Blu-Ray is Java. That's right, you can now
repurpose your desktop and mobile content for next generation DVD
content. But the one that has me really excited is
OpenCable Applications Platform for set top boxes. Earlier this
year, the major cable companies announced that they would deliver 1
million OCAP set top boxes this year in the US alone. OCAP uses
Java as it's platform. So, why is this exciting? Imagine
the application possibilities. Here is one that I came up with
called Madden Mode. Imagine you are watching TV and you want to
high lite something. Well, you pause the TV, rewind to the spot
you want, and then enable Madden Mode which allows you to scribble on
the paused image. Then imagine you can send that image to someone
else. That is what having Java in the device allows us to think
about. I am deep in the learning curve on OCAP, but the
possibilities seem endless.
So there you have it. You can build Java applications for all
three screens. And with the combined footprint of desktops (PC
/Apple/Linux), mobile devices, Blu-Rays, and OCAP boxes - Java is the
most deployed platform for the three screens. Volume
counts. :^)
Doug.
Posted at 02:03PM May 23, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Monday May 15, 2006
E3: Nintendo
Nintendo has carved out a very interesting place for itself, and at E3
last week, they made the pie a bit bigger.
They don't have the most powerful next gen console - the Wii - but they
do have some of the most innovative games out there. Last year
they made a big splash with the unveiling of their remote control
shaped game controller. They also had revealed that it would be
position and motion control sensitive. Well, this year they
brought out the games to show what a different gaming experience could
be had with this unique design. From a tennis game to a driving
game to one of their pillar properties - The Legand of Zelda - all
reviews point to a smash success.
has a good summary of the new controller.
I want to briefy touch upon the console power debate. It is often
cited that the Wii will be the least powerful of the three new
consoles. While that is true from a raw cpu processing
perspective, remember that ATI is designing the graphics subsystem of
the Wii, and
checked, ATI is no slouch in the graphics department. Yet,
people are still suprised that the Wii has stunning graphics. I
think folks are going to be pleasently suprised at how well the Wii
stacks up in the arms race.
Nintendo continues its untique gameplay revolution in the portable
space. The Nintendo DS - with it's soon to be launched smaller,
cooler lite version - keeps cranking out the unique games.
From Nintendogs to Mario to a set of games now refered to as Brain
Games - like Sudoku Gridmaster and Brain Age - Nintendo continues to be
the go-to company for something that doesn't require hacking, slashing,
shooting, or carjacking.
It is starting to become much more clear how the console wars are
playing out. Sony is becoming the power monster. Microsoft
want to be your community focused media hub. And Nintendo will
give you that truly uniqe experience. Nintendo has positioned
itself so well that
and Microsoft are even encouraging gamers to buy the Wii.
Posted at 05:21PM May 15, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Friday May 12, 2006
E3: Sony
This year's E3 was Sony's coming out party. This was going to be
their opportunity to show the PS3 running real games to analysts,
press, retailers, and fan boys all over the world. They seemed to
have positioned themselves pretty well.
First, the basics. They will be the most expensive of the three
consoles when they launch, but they will also be the most powerful of
the three consoles. Here is a good article summarizing the PS3
hardware. They have obviously made some changes based upon their
competitors moves. The motion capture controller is am obvious
nod to the Nintendo Wii. The hard drive, albeit a smaller one, on
the low end is a response to the XBox 360's critique for having no hard
drive on the low end.
As for the show floor, they did not disappoint. They had examples
of a number of genres and quite a few games on the floor. Kudos
to Sony for not hiding the actual hardware. I like the fact that
the devkit hardware was visibly rack mounted versus hidden beneath
pods. They were even showing a flight game based upon the motion
capture controller. A good summary of the games on display is
Sony also announced the Sony Online initiative for the PS3, which is a
response to the amazing popularity of XBox Live, but not enough details
have surfaced to decide if it will be enough to sway the Xbox 360 crowd
to PS3.
Sony has also stepped up the number of games for the PSP. That
was one of my biggest complaints - and still is to a certain degree -
but with a huge chunk of their booth dedicated to PSP content (as well
as downloadable demos), the PSP is on its way to being a great portable
game device.
The console wars are certainly heating up, and Sony appears to be
taking the role of most powerful devices, both with the PS3 and the
PSP. The question is will they be able to lure enough game
developers to build content specific to their devices. With
middleware and multiple console launches for the biggest games,
developers are leaving a lot of PS3 capabilities out in order to get
their titles on all three platforms. EA with its NFL madden
series is a great example of this. Also, will consumers be
willing to pay the big bucks for the premium hardware. Only time
will tell, and an exclusive PS3 game with stunning graphics and
gameplay is likely to be the key. Assasin's Creed and Metal Gear
Solid 4 seem to be getting a lot of praise, and they may just be the
titles to drive the PS3.
Posted at 11:41AM May 12, 2006 by dtwilleager in General | Comments[1]
Thursday May 11, 2006
E3: Microsoft
I want to start my E3 thoughts with the 3 console players, and today
that means Microsoft.
In a lot of ways Microsoft has figured out the right approach.
Their whole model is shifting to a community based approach. They
have had tremendous success with XBox Live and are now expanding the
capabilities of that service. They are really starting to build
up their XBox Live Arcade offering - which provides for "casual" type
games. Often many of these games are the same ones found at the
casual game sites like Pogo.
Bill Gates made an appearance to announce Microsoft's new
Anywhere" initiative where players can play games between PC, XBox
360, and mobile devices. I wonder where
have heard that before. :^) Even the motif for
Microsoft's booth was all about community gaming.
As for the games, Microsoft was showcasing all of their platforms - PC,
XBox, XBox 360, and even mobile. Lot's of good looking games, but
almost all looked like clones of something else. The only new
game type was Viva Pinata. Microsoft was definitely in the mode
where they were launching a new round of games to make their new
console compelling. They are racing to get as many different
games and as many 360's as possible into the market before the PS3
launch. Some titles include: F.E.A.R, Prey, Shadowrun, Too Human,
and Madden NFL 07. Gamespot
has a pretty good rundown of the games. They also had on display some
of the new 360 add-ons, including the HD-DVD player.
In the meeting rooms, apparently Halo 3 was making it's
appearances. This is funny because a couple of months ago at a
conference, Bill Gates made a slip reference to Halo 3 which made all
the internet sites go crazy. Well, now it is official.
There isn't too much to argue with about Microsofts strategy.
They are trying to control all of your devices, and are finding
compelling reasons to do so. I think the community approach is
the right one. They aren't going to be as powerful as the PS3 and
not as innovative as the Nintendo Wii, but they are hitting consumers
in a sweet spot. It's even got me seriously thinking about
picking up a 360.
Posted at 01:56PM May 11, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Wednesday May 10, 2006
A Quick E3 Summary
I just finished spending some time at E3, and there are definitely some
interesting things happening in the industry. I will expand upon
a number of them starting tomorrow, but I wanted to provide a quick
glipse of the topics. They include:
- This year was montly about the next gen console arms race
- The market continues to consolidate - both in mobile and big games
- Social gaming will become the largest growth area over the next
two years - Online games are now mature, and the market continues to grow
- Gameplay continues to be mostly the same old thing, just a bit
prettier
I will also likely hit a few other ramblings along the way, and also
provide some good links to E3 content. This should keep me busy
for a bit. :^)
Doug.
Posted at 08:43PM May 10, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Tuesday May 09, 2006
PS3 Launch Details Revealed
Sony has revealed launch plans for the long awaited PS3. Being the last one to reveal any real info on its console give it some time to react to the other consoles. Initial peeks at the PS3 last year have now changed, seemingly responding to features announced on other consoles.
It will launch in North America on Nov 17th at two price points - $499 and $599. Unlike the Xbox 360, the lower price point will have a hard drive, just at a lower capacity. There is also some reports saying that a few features are missing from the lower price point as well - including 1080p support. The PS3 has also adopted a motion sensing controller. Last year Nintendo had announced that their next console, named the Wii, would have a motion sensing controller. The PS3 also has a number of appealing features including the popular Eye Toy, a full featured online portal (ala Xbox live), and backwards compatibility for PS2/PSOne games.
In the end, it is all about the games. Sony says there will be playable demos on the E3 show floor. It is bound to be really crowded, but I will take a peek and let you know.
Doug.
Posted at 07:02AM May 09, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Monday May 08, 2006
The New Face of Branded Mobile
Today I got to visit with some new friends at
Doug.
Posted at 09:40PM May 08, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Saturday May 06, 2006
A Perfect Day at Disneyland - Part 003 - Countdown
I loved
Doug.
PS - This is a great example of semi-pro content.
Posted at 12:13PM May 06, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Friday May 05, 2006
The Quest For Three Screens (Part 4)
This will conclude this weeks discussion of the Three Screens.
There are many more facets to this discussion, but this is enough for
now. One example is programming the Three Screens, and what a
great position Java is in to be a big player in this quest. Today
I want to look at the strengths and challenges facing each of the
players I outlined in part 1.
First is the cable companies. From a technology perspective, I
think they have the advantage. The pipes that they have into the
home for TV, data, and voice is a clear leader. They have to
potential to completely fix the time shift issue with all content
becoming video on demand. They have the components in place to
get content from the internet onto your tv in high definition.
There are two main challenges facing cable. The first is
connecting with portable devices. In theory partnerships with
wireless providers can fix this, but it still looms. The other is
compelling, unified user experiences. They have done much work in
the set top box world, but that needs to be extended to computers and
portable devices.
Next is the Telcos. They have a very strong position in mobile
devices as well as the computer. This allows them to provide
content for those devices. This is great for some types of
content, but it is still a subset of what people want to consume.
I do believe that video content to portable devices is going to be huge
- I would have paid a few buck to get the Star Wars Episode III trailer
on my phone. However, I don't think that will be the driving
mechanism for getting content - although the ipod is a pretty
compelling argument against this position. It may happen, but it
is probably 20 years away. The telcos have challenges around
getting content to the tv. Right now they are partnering with
Satalite companies for that conduit.
Satalite companies are in a pretty tight spot. They have the
potential to be the primer provider of high definition content, but
their bandwidth is still limited. They are partnering with other
companies for the other screens, which limits their control.
Finally, there are the Internet services companies. They
certainly have the advantage when it comes to providing a venue for all
the consumer and semi-pro content out there. If you also start to
put in the branded companies (Disney/WB/CBS/...) into this category,
this allows for all content to be delivered through this channel.
They have a big challenge getting this content to the tv. Most
consumers are not comfortable with connecting their computers to their
tv.
I have mentioned the great Microsoft trojan horse, and this could be a
good thing for the Internet service folks. The XBOX 360 is a
device capable of producing high definition output. And, if you
have a PC on your home wireless network running Windows Media Center
Edition, the XBOX 360 can get content from the PC. That bridges
the gap between your PC and TV for Internet content. I have not
tried this, but if the user experience is good, Microsoft has just done
the end around for set top boxes and have control of two of your
screens.
There is another type of Internet service company that I alluded to
above - that is the brand players. You are going to see these
companies offering their own services, thus bypassing the traditional
service companies. Disney is once again a great example - Disney
Mobile, Disney Games, ABC shows on ABC.com. This starts to solve
the great organizational problem that I talked about earlier - which is
the biggest challenge for the Internet services companies.
I think that will wrap us this set of blogs. I want to move on to
some other stuff. E3 is next week, so I will focus on games next
week.
Posted at 12:48PM May 05, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Thursday May 04, 2006
The Quest For Three Screens (Part 3)
Today I want to focus on the content creators. I want to look at
the types of content creators and also explore how the content is made
available to consumers.
For this discussion, I classify content creators into three
types. The first is the studios. I am using this in a
fairly broad way. This is the set of folks that have budgets for
production and marketing. They have distribution deals.
Basically, this is the content you get on the tv, theater, plane,
etc. The scale of this content is fairly large, but also fairly
centralized. Marketing and distribution deals make sure that a
consumers ability to find and experience the content - albeit in silos
(see part 1), is pretty well understood.
At the other extreme is the personal content creators. This is me
creating my vacation videos and photos and sharing it with the
world. The number of people that consume my content is pretty
small - in the dozens at most. But, from a storage and
infrastructure perspective, it is huge. Millions of people
needing a place to store, access, and play their content. This is
a huge store and access problem, but a relatively controllable
organizational problem. I can organize all of my content how I
see fit.
The third type of content creator is the one I want to spend some time
on, because this is the gold. I will call these folks the
semi-pros. They create fairly slick content, but are aimed at
pretty niche markets. There is a common sarcastic remark about
cable/satalite which goes something like "500 hundred channels of
nothing on". This refers to the problem that current tv content
is limited by bandwidth, so only certain amounts of content can be
distributed. This causes something I'll call mass market niche
content - which basically means no one is happy. There are a lot
of examples of content where as a collective, we have agreed to accept
it as "good" - Harry Potter, Star Wars, Friends, CSI, .... But,
the fact is that humans are individuals, and we are driven by looking
for content that we want as individuals. This is what has driven
the participation age.
The participation age has spawned massive amounts of content, most of
it consumable by a very small number of people - ie: see personal
content. However, it has also spawned a lot of these
semi-pros. I'll use my favorite subject - Disney - as an
example. There are thousands of hardcore Disney theme park fans
out there that have an unquenchable thirst for all things Disney theme
park - from rumors to behind the scenes to construction to trivia and
more. I am of course a member. :^) Well, podcasting,
blogs, and even before that DVD and web technologies have allowed these
semi-pros to flourish in providing content. Here are a couple of
my favorites. The Window
To The Magic podcast specializes in high quality audio theme park
experiences. They even have a game called "Where in the park"
where you listen along and try to figure out where the audio is taking
us. Another semi-pro is the
Club where they use their own shot video and even old (really old)
home videos to capture Disney theme park attractions and era's.
They create DVD's that contain this content. And for the truly
extreme, Relive The Magic
produces an 18 DVD set which captures almost every attraction, show,
and hotel at the Walt Disney World resort. The volume of
consumers looking to experience this content is pretty small,
relatively speaking. So, Disney is very unlikely to produce this
kind of content. But, for a semi-pro, this is a great
opportunity. I'm sure that all of the semi-pros are doing it
because of a great passion, but they have found their niche market as
well. And there are millions of these niche markets out there,
and the internet and participation age are letting them explode.
Which brings me to one of my main points. Organizing and
presenting these three forms of content is still a huge problem.
The only way for me to look for this kind of content is to search - A
LOT. Or, by some fluke, viral marketing makes it known. I
would love for a service that could somehow take all of my interests
and scour the web looking for all these types of content and give me
options on how to consume it. There are nuggets of technology
that are starting to scratch the surface of the problem, but they still
have a long way to go. Not picking on Amazon, but I really don't
need to know about the greatest new teenage girl product because I
bought a relative a gift three years ago. Most things out there
today require me to be the initiator of the search, and that only works
if I know what I am searching for. The really great stuff is the
stuff that I don't know I am searching for.
Next, I will try to wrap this up with some thoughts on how the players
(see part 1) seem to be positioning themselves to solve the content and
three screens problem.
Posted at 10:52AM May 04, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Wednesday May 03, 2006
The Quest For Three Screens (Part 2 Addendum)
A quick addendum to part 2 today. I know that a lot of the content distribution restrictions are due to DRM issues. Well, we (Sun) have a very interesting initiative which allows me to do what I want as a content consumer. I have the rights to the content based upon me, and not the device I intend to use. It's called DReaM, and you can learn about it
Posted at 08:32PM May 03, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
The Quest For Three Screens (Part 2)
Welcome to part 2 of my dissection of the quest for three
screens. In this part I want to focus on consumer behavior.
Note that this is a very subjective topic and is very much changing
every day. Because of this, it is likely to be heavily influenced
by my wishes, but I will also try to add scenarios that I would not
follow.
The basics of my view revolves around something very simple -
choice. Consumers want many choices for how, when, and where they
can consume content. If I want to watch something when it is
being broadcast, then that is fine. If I want to time-shift (ie:
tivo) the content, that should be trivial. If I want to
place-shift the content - ie: play it on my computer or psp or ipod or
phone - that should be easy as well. And, it should be available
to all the content I want to consume. The problem today is that
all studio generated content only exists in silos. These silos
exist in explicit time slots as well.
If I want to watch a new movie, I have to go to the theater. Then
I have to go on a plane. Then I have to use pay-per-view or
video-on-demand (vod) or stream it to my computer/portable
device. That is, if the content provider has struck a deal with
the appropriate distribution channel. Then I can rent or buy the
DVD. To make it worse, when a piece of content is in a silo, I am
restricted as to where I can view the content and when I can view the
content. Although, VOD and streaming to other devices are
starting to fix the "when" problem.
Here is a real world example. We watch The Amazing Race.
The time slot that it runs is right in the middle of when we get our
three kids to bed. And, as a parent you may know that the chaos
that ensues during this nightly ritual sometimes prevents us from
hitting the record button on the DVR in time. No problem, I
think. With this enlightened day of providing content online
after it has aired, I figure I can just pick it up - for a small fee of
course - and watch it later. Unfortunately, the only way it is
available online is in streaming form, and it has a time limit.
Now, I don't usually have my laptop networked into my AV system, which
means that I have to set all that up just to watch this content.
I can't imagine anyone who is not tech-savvy could make it through this
process. I am not trying to pick on The Amazing Race and its
network/partners. I am just using it as an example.
As for music, it isn't much better. If I bought an ipod, and was
convinced that I was always and forever going to use an ipod, then this
might be easier. I love the looks and features of the new video
ipod. My problem is that I am not going to start building up my
online music collection just to have it be useless bits if I don't get
the next ipod. Again, I want as much of my music as possible
everywhere I want to listen to it - my little music player, my big
music player, my psp, my AV system, and all of my computers. This
is another area where we are limited by the deals being brokered by the
distribution channels and the content owners.
All of this has caused me to use a different method for letting me
consume content anywhere I want. I end up purchasing the retail
materials and using that to purpose it to my devices. For DVD's,
I can use it on my computer and my DVD players - fixed and
portable. For music, I still buy the CD's and use my computer, my
CD players, and re-purpose the music for my digital players. I
would love to switch to a full digital distribution model, but there
are still too many risks (ie: money) involved with making a bet today
as a consumer.
Tomorrow, I want to move on to what I believe is truly the future of
consumer content - consumer created content.
Posted at 11:23AM May 03, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |
Tuesday May 02, 2006
The Quest For Three Screens (Part 1)
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This will be the first part of a multi-part blog. I hope to
finish it by the end of the week, and then spend next week on E3 and
games. I know where I am starting, and I know where I will get,
but the journey may wind around a bit. I recently started
focusing on the media and entertainment (M&E) industry in a much
broader view, and the following exposition is my initial perceptions of
the interesting game being played out. So, on with it.
There is an amazingly complicated game of chess being played out in the
M&E industry right now. There are too many players for it to
be a true game of chess, but it is the closest game analogy
around. In the past month I have been to the national cable show
(NTCA) and the national association of broadcasters show (NAB). I
have gathered a ton of information about the current state of the
industries.
The Premise
There is a concept being thrown around called "The Three
Screens". There are a few variations to the meaning, but the
basic premise is that all the players in the M&E industry are
trying to leverage the three screens. The three screens being
your TV, your computer, and your portable device. I am
purposefully being somewhat vague in these definitions because it gets
complicated quickly. The reality is that there are way more than
three screens, and the methods to get content on the screens varies
widely depending upon what kind of player you are in the game.
The Players
There are many players in this game, and probably even a few
emerging that we don't know about yet. Here are the ones that I
will be covering, along with their strength positions.
The Cable Companies. I am lumping together are the cable
distribution companies in this batch - not the cable networks.
These are the folks that spent the last 10-15 years putting in mass
amounts of infrastructure and fiber to as many homes as possible.
A few years ago, their big push was for triple play services - data,
video, and voice - all in one packages. Recently, a fourth
service is in the works - mobile. A number of cable companies
have partnered with Sprint to offer a full quad play. They have
done video and data for a while, and are slowly rolling out
voice. As an example, Comcast is just now rolling out voice in my
hometown here in silicon valley. The cable companies have great
strengths in getting high quality video services to the TV as well as
providing great data services to the computer. They have
struggled with creating an online presence as a brand, and we are still
waiting to see how their voice and mobile services take off. They
certainly have the best infrastructure for the last mile - that last
bit of cable coming to your home.
The Telcos. For the general definition, I will put the wireline
and wireless telcos together here. They have also had a large
build out of infrastructure and services over the last decade.
The difference between their build out and the cable companies is
mainly around focus. Telco's focused on voice, while cable
focused on video. We are starting to see a very small difference
between the infrastructures because they are each trying to build out
for the others service, but the heritage is still there. Telco's
strengths lie in getting content onto mobile devices. They have
also had some success in getting data into the computer. They
haven't had much luck with TV, instead using partnerships to touch that
screen.
The Satalite Companies. When the video quality and customer
service of cable hit some rough spots 10-15 years ago, satalite
pounced. They could offer all digital channels and had better
customer service. The ramp up was quite impressive. They
can get to places where cable has not reached, and their partnerships
with Telcos have allowed them to touch three screens. They have
started to hit their limits though - as has cable. Only a limited
number of channels are available, and now multiple e dishes are needed
to get all possible channels. It is also a one way transmission,
so true interactivity is still quite a ways off. The limited
programming choices have allowed a new player to emerge.
The Service Providers. I don't like this name, but it includes
folks like Google and Yahoo and some emerging players as well.
They have launched with great fanfare places where consumers can get
content - whether it be video, music, or games. They are
leveraging all of the work of the cable and telco companies to get
different content out to consumers. This content is not limited
to studio content either. In fact, consumer generated content has
allowed us to do things that was never possible before, and the
traditional players would never had allowed. More on that
tomorrow. There is also a new set of service providers
emerging. The content creators are becoming their own service
providers. I am going to use a lot of Disney examples because I
am a huge Disney fan. For example, look at Disney Mobile or
Disney Games. These are in direct competition with their telco
and Yahoo Games counterparts. They exploit the main weakness of
general service providers - organization. They know their
consumers and how they want their content organized and
presented. Another example of a service provider is
Microsoft. They are trying to pull off one of the biggest Trojan
horse plays we have seen. More on that later.
The Content Providers. This final set of players is one of the
smallest today, but will grow - and is growing - to become the most
dominant force in all of this game. Historically, content
providers are studios that create amazingly polished content. And
that has been the most consumed content. The participation age is
changing this. Soon, if not already, more content will be created
by "non-studios" than the traditional studios.
This should wrap it for part 1. Next up, I want to look at
consumer behavior and why each of these players is trying to bet on
what behaviors will become dominant.
Posted at 10:47AM May 02, 2006 by dtwilleager in General |