Thursday May 12, 2005
How The Game Is Played
Why Electronic Arts doesn't matter.
Okay, I've got a challenge for you.
Name 4 film directors.
Now name 4 lead actors or actresses.
Now name 4 currently independent major film distributors.
That last one is a whole lot harder isn't it? And its not just because the film studio ownership changes from month to month.
Its because unlike the first two, who the studio is doesn't matter. People go to see movies. Who the director is or who the major stars are gives you a good idea of what the film will be like. But who distributed it? That really doesn't matter to anyone but the distributor.
Asking who the distributor is is a whole lot like going to a Frank Lloyd Wright house and asking who the bank was who financed it. That is the distributors primary role-- the banker. Without the banker, the house wouldn't get built, but who the banker is has no relevance on the product produced. The banker's role is silent, uninteresting, and ultimately the most lucrative of them all.
Film distributors in today's Hollywood are exactly the same. Do you care that Disney is distributing Pixar's films? Of course not. Would you have gone to see The Incredibles if Warner had distributed it instead? Of course you would have. Who the banker is matters to exactly one person-- the banker.
What drives the industry are not the bankers. What drives the industry are the creative individuals. And thats why you recognize and can quote their names. The George Lucas's and Harrison Ford's are the engine of the movie industry. They create the content, which is what you as a consumer care about. And thats why the folks who produce content you as a consumer eagerly consume are the stars and why the best thing a banker can own is a lock on a star property so they can't go to any other banker.
Big game distributors are exactly the same. Although you might buy a game because it's a “Madden” game, you would not buy a game just because its an EA game, or an Ubisoft game. Or any other distributor. Big game companies are primarily distributors and they act in the exact same capacity. And they are equally interchangeable.
What drives the industry are the star creations and their creators. And, because of the nature of the industry, today these occur outside of the major studios.
Look at it this way. There is an old saying that bankers are bankers because they hate risk. Big studios are in exactly the same business of risk reduction. Creating a new hit property is, by definition, the riskiest investment you can make, It takes a great deal of money to develop. Tens of millions of dollars, and generally an equal amount to promote. If your lucky, the result is a hit. If not, its a financial disaster. Thats why little game companies are typically born, if they are lucky ride high for awhile, and then die when that luck runs out. Thats too risky for big studios.
Instead, EA found another formula. Two actually. They found that they could buy a hit property and it would have a certain shelf-life for sequels at a far lower risk. In general, this meant buying the small studio that created it and turning them into a sequel shop. EA has had great success with this strategy and that has spawned imitators such as Eidos and Atari (formerly Infograme) who have also done quite well.
The second thing EA discovered was that there was a certain market for low cost “shovel-ware.”
Something a lot of people don't realize when they walk down the soap isle at their local supermarket is that all the laundry detergents with all the different names are made by exactly two companies. Thats it. Those two companies discovered that by creating a whole shelf of apparent choice they could capture the consumer. In the retail business shelf-space is gold, and by having not one product line but a dozen, they could capture more shelf space. Even if its really only for two products repackaged over and over and over again.
EA does the same thing. They fill the shelves with generic, minorly differentiated product, figuring that the odds a random browser will buy one of their titles is pretty high. And thats worked well for them too, although the economics of game production have become so outrageous, and the individual titles so expensive, that I could argue the browsing phenomenon is endangered going forward.
Which ultimately gets me to my point. The EAs of the world don't drive the videogame industry any more then the Disneys or Warners drive the movie industry. They are the bankers. They take the lions-share of the money, but they depend on the individual small creators to keep the industry going. Without small companies creating new franchises that these giants can buy and ride through sequels, they wouldn't survive. And they know it, because neither business, film or videogames, is one where anyone who kids themselves about the economic realities survives long.
So why bring this up? Because I'm part of a team that is bringing Sun into the game industry, and to do that, we need to shake some old perceptions. Sun is used to selling to the bankers. And in banking, if you get JPMorgan/Chase you've just gotten a large segment of the industry. Sun likes selling to the JPM/Chases of the world. We know how to do that,
But if you sell EA what do you have? Nothing. Because they don't make the creative decisions and therefore don't make the technology decisions either. Those are made by the small independent developers and, because they are the engine of the industry and are where the real power lies, it will stay that way for a long time.
You don't take an industry like the videogame industry by convincing a few execs in a few big companies. You take it by winning the hearts and minds of the little guys. Microsoft has done it by outright bribery in the past. They've gone so far as to rent Great America for an evening for the personal amusement of all the individuals attendees at the annual Game Developers Conference.
I don't suggest we do the same thing. Frankly I don't think its as effective as simply addressing the technical problems the little guys face. And thats something Sun is good at. But we need to realize where the power lies and address the needs of those in power.
And none of them eat in EA's executive dining room.
Posted at 11:37PM May 12, 2005 by gameguy in General | Comments[6]
With the Sun game server, if the developers plan to make money with a subscription model, why not make the download free? (and use BitTorrent to make downloading hosting cheaper, faster and simpler). Encourage downloaders to burn the data to DVDs and share with their friends - turns the whole software piracy issue on its head.
With a retail game, the developer gets a most of the money in the first few weeks (or months) of release. With a subscription model, the revenue would be spread out over time. There's then no need to come out with a huge advertising splash on release, which also makes demand estimation easier. Instead, the developer could do advertising using the subscription revenue.
Since on-line games tend to improve over time, there's no particular reason for consumers to jump in quickly as soon as the game is released. And developers don't have to worry so much about initial bad publicity from early bugs or stability.
With the internet being increasing used by consumers to make purchasing decisions (apparantly 90% of US consumers research cars on-line before even going to a show room), there is less need for a "bricks and mortar" type approach. So, just cut out the distributor entirely...
Posted by Chris Rijk on May 13, 2005 at 06:00 AM EDT #
If 1/3 of Sun's revenues comes from Europe, you should be aware of this issues and make your lobby ALSO with the EA's of this world (I said also, not instead).
Imagine you go to Vodafone and prove to them that their support costs would came down if the only games they sell are "Javaverified" and, imagine Java Studio has the certification routines built in. With that singular move, all the developers that develop games to european cell phones would use Sun's product or would be locked out of half the European Market.
I'm not saying you're wrong (expecially because I know very little of the gaming industry) but, I wouldn't be so quick in abandoning the lobbying with the distributors. There's more to the world than the US and having a distributor demanding simultaneous support of Windows and Linux so he would distribut a game, would be a very important demand for Sun.
About Chris' comment (if I may). I believe that business model makes sence but, I don't think it's up to Sun to define the business model of any developer. Sun isn't making games, it's building the technology for other to make them.
Posted by Jaime Cardoso on May 13, 2005 at 11:59 AM EDT #
Hi Guys,
Excellent points guys and, yes,my world-view tends to be USA centric even though I lived for a year in Italy. It is a good point that the economic mdoel varies from coutnry to countrya ccording to local laws and customes. There was a time when the destributors owned all the important theatres in this country but anti-trust laws made them divest them.
In the movie industry, in the US, though theatre ownership is becoming almost unimportant. The bulk of movie revenue is actually made in home-format sales and has been since VCRs became really popular.
As for the subscription mdoel, I absolutely agree that it removes the traditional destributor from the loop for the majoprity of the revenue. Combine that with the fact that itr repalces one-time revenue with recurring revenue and it is very attractive to the game developers. THsoe who have succeeded in this space are making a LOT of money. (Last time I checked Everquest builled voer 5 million dollars a month.)
Currently it is a difficult and expensive space to get into, though, it easily doubles (or more) the cost of game development so you still need a backer with deep pockets, and typically thats a destributor. Remember, they are the banks in all of this. This is one of the thinsg we are looking to change with the Sun Game Sever.
The other thing to keep in mind though is that the game store is still where the mass market goes to buy games. This isthe biggest reason why every one of these games has a retail box release. In that regard its a lot like the movie theatre. A fil mdoesnt make the bulk of its money in theatricval release, but theatrical release is necessary to promote the product adaqwuately. Same thing is true of brick and mortar distribution of games today.
So I don't think we're going to be rid of the destriubtors any time soon, but I *do* think it behooves us to remmeber where the leverage points are if we set out to tip an industry-- and in the game industry they are with the developers not with the destrbutors, at least here in the US.
Posted by Jeff K on May 13, 2005 at 03:02 PM EDT #
Posted by Amjith on May 13, 2005 at 04:30 PM EDT #
I'd imagine that in 5 years or so, developing a subscription based game will have a completely different approach. Eg, imagine a "newbie only" start area in an RPG where you stay until level 5, say. Such a thing could be implemented first, and be free for all, but once you get past that, you have to pay. So instead of a throw-away demo, you'd start off with a simplified section, which is useful for the game proper. Or alternatively, you could concentrate on implementing player vs player battles first (with no RPG element), then add the full world later. The point would be to give something useful though relatively simple as the first part of the project, and not yet another demo.
I can't say I've been following the game industry that much lately, so I don't know what's going on now exactly, but for subscription based games, most seem to have only slightly diverted from the normal development model.
PS I hardly play games at all these days, but I'm still interested in following what's happening to them. I used to play MUDs quite a bit 10 years ago, when I was at university. It's rather amusing to see people make such a big deal about the social aspects of the modern equivalents - I saw all that in MUDs. (after all, the social aspect is dependant on the people, not the graphics).
A guy at work brought in World of Warcraft to show us during lunch. I was impressed how detailed and complete the skills and learning system is. Certainly more advanced than the MUDs I played.
Posted by Chris Rijk on May 13, 2005 at 05:07 PM EDT #
Well,. there are a few intersting stistics ortu there, and we migth infer a few things from the way the industry seems toi be functioning today.
The onlky solid statistic I've ever seen was about a year ago and was a chart of the growth of all the major online subscription games to date. The most instereting thing about the chart, IMHO, was that it shows almost no cannibalization of onlien communities by newer games. Games eemed to grow to a cetain poitn and then just stop and new games, while they imapcetd the older game slightly, did not havenearly the impact one might assume. Also, each successful game wnt through abotu the same user base growth curve.
This suggests two intersting things:
One, user loyalty to online games is much stronger then to traditioanl games. Not surprising since onlien games are about communities and people-loyalty is a lot stronger then thing-loyalty.
Two, that the user base has not begun to staurate yet. There is still plenty of room for each game to generate its own player base withour canabalizing those that came before.
I suspect, though have no proof, that browsing-purcahse of newer online games is probably nto as high as otyher types but I wouldn't discuoutn it as an important part of the pehnomenon. (In general as I mentieodnI havea gut feelign browsing has dropped with the rise of the retail price of games but I cant substantaite that yet with data.)
But retail sales is about more then browsing. I know I go into my retail store specifically to buy a game I am anticpating when it comes out. Im not a browsing buyer generally, Im too cheap. But I still buy at my local brick and mortar. And thats most of game sales today still, at least in the US-- over the counter.
Posted by 67.122.118.101 on May 13, 2005 at 05:28 PM EDT #