The only way to estimate LOE, I've decided, is to actually do the work. Then you can get back with your manager and say, "I estimate that it took four days." This method is nice because it gives you a high degree of confidence in the correctness of the estimate. There remains, of course, the problem of finding out how long it will take to come up with the estimate. Hopefully they wouldn't ask for that.

Comments:

I had a colleague who would almost always nail his scopings. His secret was he'd take his best real estimate and multiply it by Pi. Good ol' 3.141592653.

Posted by skrocki on January 12, 2007 at 02:34 PM MST #

Brilliant! Although, he could be accused of "circular reasoning." Ha ha! *snort*

Posted by Greg on January 12, 2007 at 02:43 PM MST #

The circular part came in when he'd catch hell for an unreasonably padded scoping. So, he'd chop it in half (at least) to keep the peace, then the project would inevitably go over the newly estimated time and be delivered by his original date.

So...when are you going to deliver the final portal component? ;-)

Posted by skrocki on January 12, 2007 at 02:52 PM MST #

Ah, portal schmortal. John and I decided to defect to Microsoft and work on the Zune. :) :) :)

Posted by Greg on January 12, 2007 at 03:34 PM MST #

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