Tuesday May 19, 2009

I got a follow from Twitter today from Jon Aydinova (@jonaturk).  I like to look at who follows me and read their profile or whatever they choose as their only link to share from their Twitter profile.  His led to a community called Disruptive Thoughts, Game Changers and New World Order.  If that name doesn't compel you to continue, I don't know what will.  At this point, I couldn't possibly leave.


Reading through it I was pleased he pointed to this blog, but really loved the videos he posted from John Underkoffler.  Most intriguing was the brief video clip by Oblong Industries that describes the revolutionary g-speak spatial operating system.  It's described as a spatial operating environment that represents a completely new platform for computing, which seems to get all of its input from human gestures.  Optimized for metadata, it's the perfect cloud computing application.


#cool



g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

Friday Mar 20, 2009

So, the Sun Cloud has finally been announced.  And, on the same day, IBM leaked news about a bid to buy Sun.  Fortunately, the IBM stuff did not rain on our cloud.  Developers, startups, and partners were buzzing all over our booth at Community One East asking about storage in the cloud, how we are different from Amazon and the rest of the market, how we are alike, and when they can give us their credit card.  Wednesday was an exciting day, especially for this product manager.


Here's where you can go for more info leading up to our summer launch:



  1. sun.com/cloud - This site will keep you up to date with what we are doing across the board in cloud computing.

  2. kenai.com - We're using our own "forge" to host the project containing the APIs for the Sun Cloud.

  3. network.com - Well, that now just redirects back to the sun.com/cloud page.

  4. wikis.sun.com - You can find some other stuff there about the Sun Cloud that is delivered from our business operations side.

Make sure you sign up for CommunityOne West in San Francisco and JavaOne, where we'll be announcing more about the Sun Cloud.  Or, just stay tuned to our Web announcements.  Either way, if you're interested in the cloud computing space, Sun has some intriguing services coming your way.

Monday Jan 26, 2009

A few months ago, on http://www.ObamaCTO.org, I saw this question:



Barack Obama is going to appoint the nation's first CTO. What are the top priorities?



One of it's answers:


Build a nation-wide smart grid

Embed intelligence throughout a nation-wide electrical grid, on both sides of the meter to enhance the efficiency of distribution and use. This will (A) accelerate the penetration of sources like solar & wind that
are diurnal or intermittent; (B) take advantage of smart meters and distributed storage as plug-in cars become available; (C) permit power to be wheeled from where resources are rich to where electricity is needed; (D) provide tens of thousands of jobs and train workers to replace the baby boomers who will retire from utilities over the next 5-10 years. Start with the government-owned Bonneville Power Administration in the Northwest, learn what works, and extend the network across the country.



Neato.


On another note, whurley is calling for President Obama to build out a national computing cloud specifically for higher education.   Of course, this will benefit open source peeps (beyond students).  Maybe this is ala Eucalyptus?  Hi, Rich!


Looks like cloud computing is going down the thought path of the traditional computing model, so the analysts are right on.  At some point in time, someone might even suggest a government built and regulated cloud computing model.  We live in interesting times.

Thursday Dec 18, 2008

From Marketwatch on 12/8/2008:


Appirio has an interesting post about their top 10 predictions for cloud computing in 2009.


Sign into Google Moderator Beta to agree, disagree, or add your own.

Wednesday Nov 05, 2008

Our team was kicking around all the definitions of cloud computing that are out there at the moment.  Forrester, Gartner, and O'Reilly all have intriguing takes on it.  But, they are all too complicated.


We're aggressively trying to find some simple way to describe it -- preferably in one sentence.  So, how's this?



~ Cloud Computing:  Internet-based access to highly scalable pay-per-use IT capabilities.



Is there something simpler out there?

Wednesday Oct 29, 2008

As cloud computing takes hold, PCs are getting smaller.  Just look at the data.

The Pew report, Use of Cloud Computing Applications and Services (PDF), is based on a survey of more than 1,500 American Internet users conducted in April and May of this year, and has a margin of error of 3 percent.  An interesting conclusion of the report is that 69% of those surveyed use cloud-based online applications, even though they don't yet understand cloud computing. By far, the largest usage is for webmail (56%) and personal photo storage (34%).

Cloud computing is taking hold and growing phenomenally, with no end to the growth curve in site.  The highest adoption of cloud computing applications are among the 18-29 age group at 89%, while usage declines with each successive age category down to 46 percent for those over 65.

The use of online services using cloud infrastructure is definitely taking the place of desktop applications.  The personal computer no longer has to do all the work, so it's getting smaller.  HP just launched a $400 mini notebook, a portable and inexpensive Netbook designed specifically for Web browsing.

$400 bucks for a PC.  And, that's reality, unlike the failed $100 laptop project.  $400 bucks is the cost of 2 iPhones.  Eventually, maybe Apple will make the iPhone with a holographic and resizable screen and keyboard.  I don't know about you, but if Apple makes that happen, I won't need a PC anymore.

Tuesday Oct 28, 2008

Today, I was reading a post by Paul Murphy on ZDNet and realized there is a perfect storm brewing in cloud computing, especially for Sun Microsystems.

First, Paul gives some advice to "...focus a lot more effort in the small to mid range market: the people who desperately want stuff that “just works” and now think they have nowhere to go. These people are angry about IT, about something that looks so simple but costs them money and aggravation every single day of the week -and no one’s telling them that Sun has exactly what they need. "  He's right.  Sun's product set -- especially in software -- is largely undiscovered and hasn't reached its full potential in the marketplace, especially as it relates to brand recognition.  

Second, Sun has very publicly announced its investment in cloud computing by creating a separate business unit for it, led by Chief Sustainability Officer Dave Douglas.  Sun's investment in the cloud isn't a "me too" thing.  We've been in this space for years.  But, the open and specific investment in the future of cloud computing is not just exciting for me as a product manager, but should make potential customers and current shareholders tingle in their toes.  Don't forget that cloud computing is largely a trust proposition.  The most trusted brands will do well in this space, and Sun has that in loads.

Third, the economy is on a downturn.  Jonathan recently blogged "Innovation Loves a Crisis".  He clarified this by stating, "You're not going to hear from any of our customers, "let's stop buying technology and hire more people to do the work." They're going to default to the opposite - automating work, and finding answers and opportunities with technology, not headcount. And in that process lies an opportunity for Sun - to engage with customers in driving down cost, driving up utilization, and driving the changes that yield immediate and long term benefit."  The value of cloud computing to a business is in the reduction (potentially down to zero) of it's IT infrastructure by utilizing a cloud computing infrastructure service provider and only paying for what they use.  This value model is too good to pass up.

So, the equation is this:

    Largely Untapped Software Brand

+ Investment in Cloud by a Trusted Brand with Amazing Intellectual Property

+ Economic Downturn

------------------------------

= PERFECT STORM for Cloud Computing

I feel like a storm chaser.  Makes me kind of breathless.

Thursday Oct 23, 2008

Cloud computing is considered controversial by those who mock it as a marketing fashion statement.  Yet, analysts believe that cloud computing will closely follow the adoption curve of traditional computing.  What that means to me is that CC starts with high performance and very traditional computing applications, will begin to focus on a much wider and less technical user base, and become the de-facto infrastructure for entertainment and education -- the invisible and unwired platform whether you are at work, rest or play.  Cloud computing in the future will represent a confluence of technologies and trends and virtual worlds, enabling a deeply immersive experience. Reminds me of gaming.  (Play me on Halo3 online.  I'm YAMY34.)

Have you noticed that game designers are a bit more sophisticated than other software developers?  Not sophisticated as in having a deep understanding of the tender differences between years, types, and brands of wine.  By "sophisticated", I mean that they seem to have a deeper and more passionate understanding of the end-user and they build their game software with this in mind.  Audience immersion and experience is the ultimate end goal.

How video games and computing in general have evolved is similar.  First, designers had to build in primitive features that required touch (keyboard/mouse) and sight (reading and interpreting words or symbols on the screen).  Sound came from mechanical interactions with the hardware itself, like the sound of a mainframe punchcard, the sound of the keys clacking, or the fan cooling down the processor.  Now, gaming is much like the entertainment industry, where the aim is to build as much sensory interaction as possible and make it much more complex.  This gives the audience almost total submersion in an evolved, complex, sensory interaction which enables reality to blend with fantasy.

Good game design requires a hybrid understanding of the entertainment industry and computing.  It involves an understanding of the evolution of human senses with technology like sound (ex:  surround sound) and sight (color/digital/HD).  Touch technology, right now, is still in an emerging state -- even though multi-touch technology exists today.  Smell technology is still in its infancy.  (Actually, I saw Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist recently and was very thankful that I couldn't smell what I was watching and hearing.)  The more senses are involved, and the more complex their interaction is with technology, the more immersive the total experience. 

As I've thought about this, I've also wondered about immersive experiences in the cloud.  What will they be?  How will my senses work with the technology?  Will it include interaction through a virtual world cocoon?  Will education, gaming, and entertainment collide to create a one-stop ultimate immersion?

I've had a recurring dream about this very thing for the past year and a half.  My sci-fi dream is set in 2050, when all of these technologies and trends have collided with global ecosystem events.  It's fascinating to think about, and I'm not sure when the details of this dream will stop coming to me.  But, I pack away research about this subject every so often.

How immersive do you think our experiences will be when cloud computing reaches its full potential?

Monday Sep 29, 2008

A couple of weeks ago, I was talking to my good friend whurley about cloud computing.  He told me he just didn't believe in it.  He is a true contrarian mind, so I instantly found myself curious about a general audience's view of cloud computing.  Does anyone even know what it is?  In order to get some quick data, I reached out with my social network at LinkedIn and asked the questions:   Do you believe in Cloud Computing?  What is Cloud Computing to you? What SHOULD it be? And, what problems do you see it solving in the future?  I'm sharing these answers with you because they were given in a public forum (LinkedIn's Q&A).   

 I received some very interesting responses, of which some are edited for clarity and content:


  • Niclas Westling Cloud computing to me is to be able to work anywhere, independently of the type of hardware and operating system etc which happens to be to hand at the moment. Not having to maintain and upgrade software applications is also a big plus to me, as well as not having to worry about backups.

    Too a large extent this exists today already, although what it lacks is the variety of applications I can use locally. To be ideal I would also need all my personal data available, which also is technically feasible but a little scary from a security and integrity perspective - it also costs a fair amount having it hosted if you have a lot of data.

    The future problems it would solve is pretty much already covered above but in more detail;
    - problem free computing. No upgrades, virus cleaning, backups
    - Having access to an "unlimited" number of applications allowing me to resolve whatever task is at hand
    - it would also work equally good for business and personal tasks
    - For people travelling or being away from home (at hospital e.g.) having full access to their data

    As you probably realised by now, I like the concept and look forward to continued development and improvements.
  • Mayur Udernani: Cloud computing to me is to be able to setup my PC anywhere and access all settings and files from wherever without actually connecting to or carrying my laptop.  Though it is not quite there, it seems to be fast evolving. ...one problem that cloud computing will definitely solve is the constraint to personalize the settings of every device(laptop, desktop etc) you work with.  It will also do away with the idea of having to carry heaploads of data in hard disks. Whether it will actually do away with the hard disk storage entirely is a bit speculative as of now.  
I will also add another part on my own, what are the potential hiccups?
    • Security, Security, Security!
      • Anonymity
      • Data privacy protection
      • Authentication
    • Connection Speeds and Internet Protocols
      • Consumption for the internet has gone hungrier with rich media being supported by browsers in Web 2.0. It will be a challenge for protocols to be updated to cope up with the data explosion.
      • Also connection speeds in many parts of the world will be a bottleneck for further development and a maturity stage being reached in cloud computing.
    • Sustainble Revenue sources for service providers.
  • Stuart Charlton: I believe in Cloud Computing, but I also believe in Santa.

    The cloud has emerged as a response to a simple questions:
    "Why are my online consumer services so easy to use and inexpensive to provision, but my enterprise IT services are so hard to use and expensive to deliver?"

    The cloud claims that...
    - You should be able to provision and change your IT infrastructure on demand, with low lead times.
    - You should be able to have flexibility in how you invest in infrastructure; instead of a multi-month RFP and huge capital outlay, one can adopt an "on demand" pricing and payments model, supplemented by capital-intensive pre-payments when appropriate.
    - Changes to your IT infrastructure should be considered the norm, not the exception. This includes adjusting to demand without requiring major downtime.

    So, put another way, Cloud computing is about enabling a more visible, frictionless relationship between the producers and consumers of IT infrastructure. It's about enabling an "on demand" provisioning, management, and recovery experience both inside one's own data center and across global independent data centers.

    The primary work being done now in industry is to build the technical foundations of clouds and figure out how the ecosystem should shape up: the relationships and interoperability between hardware providers, hosting providers, software vendors, IT architects, developers, and users. Some want to promote one stakeholder over all of the others, some are more about playing a niche, and some are "market makers".

    A simplistic view of clouds is that it's all about outsourcing. I think that's a shell game; the real change is a mix of technical and business-led evolution.
  • Tom Welke:  I am not a believer in Cloud computing for a few reasons. However, here are a few points that may be of interest.

    A great many firms in both large and small geographical markets have attempted to become something of a hardware service / infrastructure service provider in a JIT format. Very very very few have been successful at this due to a very simple point. Often times infrastructure / break fix needs are immediate, and require immediate attention. And, guess what, if you have many customers, needs will come up not with just one customer - but many of them, again on an urgent response time. Now, you must staff up for these needs. However, just as their are times when a firm has its resources fully utilized, there are times when utilization is not high at all and then, essentially, you are spending a great deal of money as a consulting firm paying people to sit on chairs and not bill. This, in the long run, is a recipe for trouble...and lots of it.

    Now, Cloud computing - in my opinion - can work if you have enough resources to handle critical needs, and can manage your resources and their utilization to minimize non-billable time...if you can do that, you have an awesome business model indeed.
  • Tarry Singh: Cloud Computing is a platform which will be the playground of new trends such as CrowdSourcing where a lot of problems will be solved by Global Crowds in the Cloud.   To me it is the next step towards the commoditization of some core technology areas where we have been under utilizing our potential (people, I mean), that will free our resources to do much larger and bigger things.
  • Dave Stratford: Cloud Computing is the latest catch phrase for what used to be called application service providers. It is basically using the internet to offer applications as a service. Google Apps is a good example. I think it would be really cool if someone were to marry this to virtualization. Then you could logon to your own virtual machine from where ever.
  • Anthony Plack: Cloud computing is less about how you serve the application (as middle-ware component or web application), than how you keep it running and grow the resources.   It also differs from new people sourcing options like Crowd Sourcing. This is more about a flexible workforce.
    Cloud computing makes sense if you have an application which has the following characteristics:
    • A middle-ware or web based application
    • An uncertainty or (alternatively) rapid growth usability.
    • A need to always be available
Desktop applications or fat clients do not work well on cloud computers. Cloud computing ramps up to Globally large systems very well. Cloud computing is the next step in clustered computing for availability and performance.  I personally have only one application which makes sense for cloud computing, but because of the nature of the internet, I do not have a need for it (yet?). There are many services that cloud computing makes sense, but not all.
  • Russell Wagner:   Cloud computing has been around, in on form or another, since my bad, old mainframe daze.
  • Rick Jones:  Cloud Computing to me is a new term to encapsulate Application Service Providers (ASPs), Software as a Server (SaaS) and other related activities on the Internet.

    What it SHOULD BE is a vast number of online services, each conforming to agreed interoperability standards that allows virtually any IT service to be consumed by an organisation. It isn't there yet, and this is still a way off, but applications are getting there and the pieces are in place.

    As a framework it has the potential to solve many IT problems, most specifically the high cost of establishing robust IT infrastructure within the Enterprise. Cloud Computing will ultimately allow an organisation to choose the best solutions from around the world without having to worry about how these solutions are actually hosted, and without the high entry-level costs involved in large scale IT.

    These benefits will apply to everyone, but the biggest winners will be the SMEs who cannot afford robust IT, but still have an operational and often legislative need for it. For example, new legislation requires specialist systems in areas such as corporate governance. SMEs cannot afford a new IT system, but can use a turnkey system provided by an external provider.

    As interoperability standards further evolve, these remote systems will be able to be integrated into existing LOB applications with very little effort.

    There are no IT services that could not be delivered via Cloud Computing once security and interoperability are fully addressed. With the increases in network performance and availability, even physical services such as storage networking will become viable.

    Of course, we are still a long way off....
  • Benjamin Smith: As a traveler, I tend to use a lot of the "cloud" services to limit the amount of time I spend syncing between my work laptop and personal netbook and desktop.
  • Rajat Mehta:  Cloud computing in near future will appeal a lot to organization who have spikes as far as computing resources are concern. Typically these customer do regression testing, CAE analysis, Monty Carlo Simulation, etc.  These organization need spike performance <infrastructure> and not sustained compute power. 
In the mid-term, you will have office productivity tools moving to Cloud computing and finally if all goes well you could have business critical function moving on Cloud. (Long way to go).

The problem currently is mainly around security and also uptime. Even Likes of Google have had black outs in recent time and hence corporations will not have confidence to host critical apps out of cloud.

In the current generation, spike computing is at best addressed by Cloud.
  • Ari Herzog:  Cloud computing is another name for Web 2.0, and that's straight out of Tim O'Reilly's mouth. Tim is the credit for bringing Web 2.0 into vogue.

  • Jeffrey Young: Cloud computing is what you make of it. It can be a great option for IT departments to offload areas of their current infrastructure (email, collaboration tools, etc.) and allow for more focused IT projects. What it should be is a solution that should be able to freely integrate with current core infrastructures. Cloud computing is still in it's early stages but I believe the future is very bright for this space. I believe we will see some great advances in this arena in the next 3 yrs. In regards to problems the major problem that I can forsee would be Security. The "cloud" will be a big target for hackers in the future.

Weeding out those quoting others rather than giving their own opinions, it seems like the understanding of the definition of cloud computing is varied and muddy.  Definitions of what it is range the gamut.  Cloud computing, to these folks, is:

  • "Web 2.0" (or at least that's what that other guy said)
  • what you make of it
  • virtualization
  • really for computing activity spikes
  • something that limits the time I spend syncing my devices
  • or it SHOULD be a vast amount of online services (each conforming to interoperability standards) that allow any IT service to be consumed by an organization
  • the ability to work anywhere independently of hardware or OS
  • less about the application than about running it
  • a response to the problem of IT services being so expensive and difficult to deliver

Concerns about the technology include scalability, performance, dependability, uptime, standards and protocols, and adoption.  The doubt about adoption and how far off we are with cloud computing gaining traction conflicted a bit with the notion that cloud computing has been around for a long time.

Cloud computing is much more pervasive than most people think.  In fact, many of today's social applications and Webware are delivered very successfully by cloud service providers, who are in turn powered by cloud infrastructure service providers.  Consumer demand is driving this explosive growth, creating innovation at that level which is now trickling down into business layers.

Peter Laird put together a Visual Industry Map (September 2008), which is a brain map of sorts for the cloud computing industry.  Likewise, Forrester has some great explanations and insight in their August 2008 paper called Future View:  The New Tech Ecosystems of Cloud, Cloud Services, and Cloud Computing.  The cloud is not one large market, they say, but a group of service offerings - virtual infrastructure, software platform, and application components.  (I've taken out the tired as-a-service endings.  Ugh.)  These are the emerging markets in cloud, compartmentalized by physical infrastructure on one end and Web-based and SaaS on the other.

This blog entry is long enough for now.  I'll continue exploring cloud computing definitions, myths, and the confluence of it with social networks / people in future entries.

~Y

 Ynema Mangum, cloud computing product manager

This blog copyright 2009 by Ynema Mangum