/dev/null/kevin

A long time ago I made some predictionsthat mostly came true.  I was basically 11 for 14 on predicting which new TV shows would fail.  I was wrong about Numb3rs and very wrong about Grey's Anatomy and The Office.  That said, anything above 50% is good, so I'm happy with my 79%.  And I still think Grey's Anatomy is a dumb show.

So, let's see how I do with this next season.  These are only based on the title and a brief summary.  I looked at the competition and also the production cost.

Note: Green means my prediction looks good or came true and red means that I might be wrong.  The strikeout text means that a show has been canceled.  Bold means that it has been officially renewed.

The half hour sitcoms are the hardest to predict.  They are generally cheap to produce and even the lame ones can survive for several seasons.  Any sitcoms in the middle columns could make it.  At least there aren't any more "fat guy and hot wife" shows this year.

Update [10/06/2006]: Smith and Kidnapped were canceled.  Guess I gave them too much credit.  On the other hand, Heroes was given a full season greenlight, so it will at least live through this season.

Vanished was moved to Fridays, probably to die, and Justice was also moved, which means it will probably also die.  Any Fox show that moves due to the baseball playoffs usually dies.

"Studio 60" isn't doing so well.  While getting great reviews and confidence from the people who buy commercials, it's ratings are slipping and one cast member is unexpectedly pregnant, causing some behind the scenes changes.

Finally, Brothers and Sisters is doing better than I predicted.

Update [10/11/2006]: Six Degrees is losing 60% of its Grey's Anatomy lead in, which TV people hate, so I'm guessing it's in trouble.  Shark and Ugly Bettyare the two highest rated new shows, so that shuold be good for them (and me).   Some of these new shows haven't even debuted yet so I'll get more news next week.  Jericho is also doing mediocre, but it will likely last past Christmas.  The Nineis doing okay, but after watching the show I realized that, while it's an excellent show, it shouldn't last more than one season due to the nature of the story.  If they drag the story out longer than one season people will stop watching anyway (see Prison Break).

Update [10/12/2006]: I watched 30 Rockand it was kind of limp.  There were a couple of good jokes, but I can't see it being hit.  In other news, The Knights of Prosperityhas yet to even air.  ABC doesn't have confidence in it.  So, technically I might be wrong about it just because it may not even air by Christmas, but I'll still claim victory if it fails.

Update [04/04/2007]: 30 Rock received a surprise (and deserved) renewaltoday so I figured I'd check how I was doing.  I'm 15 for 24 on my predictions so far.  To be fair, I need to see which shows are renewed to know for sure, so I could do better, but for now I'll assume the shows that are still on in the second column will make it.  'Til Death should have died (it was failing) but it got lucky enough to last until American Idol gave it a big lead in and now it's thriving.  Oh, and The Knights of Prosperitydied a quick death when it finally made it on to the air, so I'm claiming victory on that one.  Heroescontinues to soar and flaunts my wrongness at me every time I see a promo.    I couldn't be happier to be wrong, however.

Update [05/15/2007]: ABC and NBC have release their preview schedules for next fall, so I was able confirm some correct, and incorrect, predictions.

Update [05/16/2007]: Jericho and The War At Home have been canceled.  'Til Death as renewed. 

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