Friday Jan 09, 2009
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Friday Jan 09, 2009
With their victory last night over OU, Florida is #1 in my ratings by nearly 2 points.
1 Florida 96.620 13-1 2 Oklahoma 94.802 12-2 3 Southern_Cal 93.011 12-1 4 Texas 92.284 12-1 5 Penn_State 88.831 11-2 6 Texas_Tech 86.171 11-2 7 Alabama 85.982 12-2 8 Utah 85.714 13-0 9 TCU 85.566 11-2 10 Boise_St 85.296 12-1
It is interesting that they keep OU #2 ahead of USC and that the other team everyone is talking about, Utah, is #8, albeit a 5 spot improvement from before the bowls. As a reminder, these ratings are intended to predict games so this is saying that Florida would be predicted to win by 9 over Utah on a neutral field.
As far as the bowls go, the Big-12 ended up disappointing and the SEC did better than the computer predicted, and so it would be appropriate to say the Big-12 was a fraud since I made statements about Alabama being a fraud earlier this year (which ended up being true IMHO). Predicting they'd when every game was a big statement but while they did finish with a winning record, more was expected.
The predicted and actual records by conference are below.
| Conference | Predicted Record | Actual Record |
|---|---|---|
| ACC | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Big-Televen | 1-6 | 1-6 |
| Big-12 | 7-0 | 4-3 |
| Big-East | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| C-USA | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Independents | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| MAC | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Mountain West | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Pac-10 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| SEC | 2-6 | 6-2 |
| Sun Belt | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| WAC | 2-3 | 1-4 |
The predictions were mixed with a perfect or within 1 record for 6 of the conferences, but big misses on the ACC, Big-12, and MAC (all did quite worse than expected) and C-USA, Mountain West, and SEC (did better).
On individual game predictions, the computer ended up 19-15 picking winners and 18-15-1 against the spread. I missed both the winner and spread on UF/OU, but if I had given Florida credit for playing a home game as many have said playing in Miami effectively was, I would have picked them to win. But my policy on bowl games is a team gets homefield advantage only if they are playing in the same city/stadium that is home for them.
So that completes another season. We now turn to the NFL for a few more weeks so look for more posts on that soon.
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