No one should be surprised, says David Liroff, CTO for WGBH by what happens to media and entertainment in the next few years, you can absolutely predict it. No, David doesn't presume to know what the hot new electronic gadget of 2006 will be, he is referring to the "tipping point" we are currently in between content distributors and content consumers. This tipping point, David goes on to observe, is driven not by one technology trend but by many, including,
Advances in all these technologies have driven a tipping point over who controls when and how we watch our favorite TV show, movie, or listen to our music. Try going to Google Video and search for "Nova", you will see some of what David is talking about. Anyone who owns a Digital Video Recorder (DVR) like TiVo knows this and so do the several million people who currently subscribe to satellite radio services like XM. As if to chime right in, today's USA Today has a cover story on Podcasting. You can't get much more mainstream than that. Even Sun employees can podcast.
So where is this all leading. There are a couple of implications, well actually many. First, broadcasters and advertisers cannot rely on traditional geographically defined markets. Over 25% of the people who tune in to WGBH's Internet radio are listening from overseas. How many people use their DVR to skip over commercials? I expect more than 25%. A 30 second TV spot during the Oscars is reportedly going for $1.6M. What happens when the majority of new TVs have built-in DVRs? But now TiVo knows what programs I watch. That is worth something to someone. However, rather than embrace these new realities, the bulk of content distributors, David believes, are ignoring the new realities while continuing to look for way to lock in their audiences. While David doesn't have all the answers, he believes the way forward is to embrace the inevitable change brought on by technology advances and look for guidance by examining possible scenarious with a focus on one's core mission. For PBS, part of that core mission is education.
Of course technology still has a long way to go. One area where much work is still needed is in Digital Rights Management, or DRM. It is relatively easy for Microsoft to implement a DRM scheme for Word files, given that they control the market. However, think of some more complicated educational scenarios that might be supported by WGBH's mission. What will the DRM standards be to allow a professor at USC to combine a video clip from Nova, an audio archive of a Winston Churchill speech stored in the Cambridge library, and last week's "60 Minutes" episode into next week's history class? This probably won't be based on a single DRM system from a single vendor, but most likely some sort of brokerage system based on yet to be defined DRM standards implemented by multiple Digital Asset Management systems. Of course, a building a standards based digital asset management system can be a challenge in itself, which is why WGBH partnered with Sun to develop the worlds first Digital Asset Management Reference Architecture.
Now on to perhaps David's most important bit of advice, on the question we are all afraid to ask, "what type of TV should I buy next?" The non-technologists in the crowd will love his answer, "trust your eyes", he says. Every technology and every brand has different brightness, different color intensity, and different optimal viewing angles. Because everyone's eyes respond slightly differently to each factor, you should choose with your own eyes.
So, don't be afraid, don't be surprised.