I was lashed at in a "mild manner" by quite a few members of the blogosphere mafia via emails and phone conversations over the last few days on my post on India An IT Superpower, Who Are WE Kidding ?. WHY ? Is it because I had an opinion ? Is it because I came across as a anti-Indian ? Or was it because I am foolish ?
Here's a post expecting another round of bashing. But this time, I expect them to post them as comments here so everybody can read it rather than expect me to spend time replying to emails and phone calls. So folks; PLEASE post YOUR opinions as comments however harsh they may be.
The Indian Technology industry sector comprises of a huge magnitude of organizations offering consultancy services, call centers and BPO markets. It's no longer a question that India has made it's mark in the Information Technology marketspace. But what I always question is whether India would be able to sustain itself in this space. The statistics, put forth by business intelligence firms, merchant bankers and leading IT industry associations such as NASSCOM, McKinsey & Co., Goldman Sachs, among others, seem to point to a robust, high growth Indian IT industry in the future. Can India make it to IT Superpower status?
According to a Goldman Sachs report released in 2004, India's IT workforce could grow to 2 million in 10 years.
We tend to only read up on analysts reports that picture the good. We harp on how good and great Infosys is doing. But how many of us have read the negatives?
Here's a post on Stop calling India an IT superpower - courtesy : rediff.com
After two decades of being in the information technology business, India is still a 'toddler' with only 2 per cent of global market share, according to N R Narayana Murthy, Chairman and Chief Mentor, Infosys Technologies Ltd.
"We are just toddling; hence we should stop terming ourselves as an IT superpower," Murthy said in his address on 'Key challenges and strategies to offshoring: the political perspective' at 'Nasscom 2004 - India Leadership Forum' in Mumbai on Thursday.
"Politicians, administrators and the media should stop saying that we are a superpower," he said and added that the country has a long way to go, both in terms of quantity and quality of services.
In fact, despite India's low market share, global IT majors have begun to consider certain Indian companies like Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Satyam as a 'threat' to their businesses, he pointed out.
He also said the growing opposition to outsourcing of jobs in the United States was a 'sensitive issue,' which had to be dealt with 'sensibly.'
"It should not be sensationalised and carried on the front pages of Indian newspapers, especially when the US is facing an election year," he said.
He also said the Indian government should liberalise its internal policies, before asking other countries to liberalise their views.
India is a democracy right? Here's a statement excerpt from the Communist Party Of India's Website. "No country which treats its human resources as a liability rather than an asset can aspire to be a superpower" (not that I'm a communist)
We also keep a justification slogan in out backpack and use it whenever we feel cornered. "that India has been independent for only 58 years, while America has been independent for 219 years"
Some More Facts: (before I end this thread)
The number of patents from India are far below the level expected. Of course India has a lot of talented minds. But it's all wasted as "employees" of MNC's where they have to simply work rather than think. There is a huge gap between working and thinking or developing innovative ideas.
Whether the new-found prosperity and excitement of present-day India can be sustained will depend crucially on how the government guides the country over the next few years. Cheap labour and the widespread use of English do not guarantee success, and there are major obstacles that the country will need to tackle to ensure continued growth. Take infrastructure. Where China has pumped billions into water, road and rail projects, India has let them drift. Likewise, companies complain that bureaucracy and corruption make doing business far more difficult than it ought to be.
EXCERPT from teakada.com
PS: Also read this post on "India as an Information Technology Giant" by Dr. Abhishek Puri
This whole topic is so debatable that one could go on and on without ever coming to a conclusion. I guess it's all because we are trying to forecast things, and IF we were so good at forecasting the unknown, We would not be where we are right now.I'd do timetravel if I could
I end this post with. I Wish India Was a Superpower and Hope that it DOES attain that status someday. I also wish that I win the Super Lotto someday.
When we complain and grumble, do we realize if we are not the part of the solution, then we are the part of the problem.
Posted by Nirupama on May 29, 2005 at 02:08 AM EDT #
India <strong>REQUIRES</strong> investments in several other sectors other than I.T. like infrastructure. India is <strong>NOT</strong> producing enough to cater to those sectors, and the <strong>DEMAND</strong> for commodities, goods etc in India are in all sectors other than IT <em>(eg: FOOD, ELECTRICITY, CLOTHING, SEWAGE, ENVIRONMENT, POLLUTION CONTROL... etc)</em>.
The IT consumers <em>(majority of)</em> are in the "US" and not in India. If India cannot cater to the rising demands of it's own people and is continuously catering to the rising demands of consumers in the US, who'd win here ??
Ultimately the consumer is the <strong>driver</strong> right ? The US <strong>IS</strong> a consumer driven economy. They would soon drive Indias economy on a path of <strong>their</strong> choosing... Why are Indians so naive? <div class="code"> In urban India, confidence reigns with Indians better paid than ever before, buying cars, apartments and mobile telephones and flooding shopping malls to buy clothes, refrigerators and washing machines.
But in rural India, the picture is still dire with tens of millions unemployed or underemployed. </div>
Posted by Sreedhar on May 29, 2005 at 11:30 AM EDT #
According to a report on National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project published by the CIA
<div class="code">Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations—projected by the US Census Bureau to be 1.4 billion and almost 1.3 billion respectively by 2020—their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers.</div> <strong>PREDICTED POPULATIONS, 2050</strong> <em>from BBC</em>
- India, 1,628m (2)
- China, 1,437m (1)
- United States, 420m (3)
- Indonesia, 308m (4)
- Nigeria, 307m (9)
I don't think an economy as complex and diverse as India's is going to be led by any single sector. India is clearly on its way <em>(a long way)</em> to becoming one of the largest and most diverse economies in the world. But to call India a "<strong>superpower</strong>", I think we're way off the mark on that one...Posted by Rohan Pinto on May 29, 2005 at 01:22 PM EDT #
I agree with Rohan that India being a superpower is not possible. The main reason is because we have very corrupt politicals leaders in our country, they grab power by unconventional methods <em>(you knew that didnt you)</em>.
The second reason is that we Indians fight with each other under the pretext of religion, caste, color, <strong>(YES COLOR)</strong> etc.
Having said that, YES India has a long way to go... a Very Long way...
Posted by Rakesh on May 29, 2005 at 01:29 PM EDT #
Are you saying that all the analysts who predict it are wrong ? I'm sure that these analysts are not stupid and uneducated. !!!
Posted by Alyson Good on May 29, 2005 at 04:17 PM EDT #
emm.....
I have not read <strong>ONE</strong> report where these analysts have predicted that India is gonna be a superpower. <em>(we all make our own assumptions, we love to do that dont we ?)</em>I agree that they all predict that India would be a <strong>MAJOR</strong> player in global economy. And I'm with them on that.. But not on the <strong>superpower</strong> ordeal.
I stumbled on this article posted by Rajat Pandit on India’s superpower dreams take a beating.<div class="code">India might nurse ambitions of becoming a superpower but its defence planning still remains extremely ad hoc, with no concrete long-term plan to build military capabilities in pursuit of strategic and political objectives.
Consider this shocking fact. The core 10th Defence Plan (2002-2007) is yet to be finalised despite the lapse of more than three years. This has led to overall uncertainty about the availability of committed finances for long-term plans for weapon acquisitions and modernisation of the armed forces.
Consequently, the draft long-term integrated perspective plan (LTIPP) of the armed forces for the period 2002-2017 has now been junked. The defence ministry (MoD) and the integrated defence staff are now working on a new 2007-2022 LTIPP.
It was in 2001-02 itself that MoD based on the projections of Army, Navy, IAF and other departments had asked for Rs 4,97,000 crore for the 10th Plan period. The finance ministry (MoF), however, refused to entertain any such projections, and the files just kept moving up and down.
Then, some months ago, the MoF finally gave an "indicative" figure of Rs 4,18,000 crore to the MoD. But the defence allocations in the 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2005-06 annual budgets total up to just a little over Rs 2,76,000 crore.
"This gap between the demand and allocations has adversely affected defence planning and our preparedness," says the latest report of the parliamentary standing committee on defence.
In the 2005-06 budget, for instance, MoD had projected an expenditure of Rs 1,00,960 crore but got only Rs 83,000 crore. With submarines, 155mm artillery guns and other weapon systems in mind, MoD wanted Rs 44,123 crore as capital outlay in the allocation but was granted only Rs 34,375 crore.
Defence experts say this haphazard planning does not augur well for a country which wants to become a superpower. "A clear-headed strategic orientation to defence planning is desperately required to correlate military capabilities with long-term political objectives," said one.
The 11th Finance Commission had recommended that India’s defence expenditure should be raised to around 3 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product. But it continues to hover around 2.5 per cent. In contrast, Pakistan and China continue to spend over 4 per cent of their GDPs on defence.
The comprehensive 2001 GoM report on reforming the national security system had held, "The defence planning process is greatly handicapped by the absence of a national security doctrine, and commitment of funds beyond the financial year. It also suffers from a lack of inter-service prioritisation, as well as the requisite flexibility." The problems still continue. </div>
His article has some <strong>DEEP</strong> logic... Please think.. Think <strong>HARD</strong>... It's true. <strong>India is NOT going to be a superpower</strong>.
Please do not misunderstand what I'm saying. I believe that India will be a <strong>MAJOR</strong> player in the global economy. But will not attain <strong>superpower</strong> status.. Not without a DRASTIC shift in the current processes.
Posted by Rohan Pinto on May 29, 2005 at 04:29 PM EDT #
Posted by Ronald Mathias on May 30, 2005 at 11:59 AM EDT #
Posted by 69.63.216.69 on May 31, 2005 at 03:42 PM EDT #
Rick Rashid, head of research at Microsoft, recently was heard to <strong>predict</strong> at the Future in Review (FIRe) conference that <div class="code">within the next five years, the field of software development would be revolutionized by mathematical modeling that can prove properties of very large bodies of code. He said the Windows team is hiring PhD. mathematical modelers to test code, hoping to replace the dance of software programmers coding and testers trying to show how dumb the programmers are.</div>
Please take a deep breath, lean back, relax, and ponder over this for a minute.
India may be at the receiving end of a lot of outsourcing gigs at this point of time. But that is no indication that all other countries currently with "superpower" status are gonna sit back and watch this. They have plans.. They should have plans, and they will have plans...
5 years from now, India will still be 5 years behind. India would have humongous labor power in the "programming", "data entry", "call center", etc.. etc.. kinds of skillsets. But what the US would require 5 years from now would not be <strong>those</strong> skillsets, but rather like what Rashid predicted, <strong>mathematical modelers</strong>..... bio physicists, bio technologists, scientists, molecular sciences experts, who knows what other high end skillsets the US would be shopping for 5 years from now. <em>(some arena's that I am aware of)</em>
But I <strong>BET</strong> it's not call center, data entry, programmers and similar folks...
Posted by Rohan Pinto on May 31, 2005 at 04:48 PM EDT #
BTW: any Idea how much are they gonna pay the PHD's ? 6.5$ per hour ?? AND what does PHD stand for anyway ? "PASSED WITH HIGH DIFFICULTY" ?
I feel sorry for you.
Posted by 69.63.216.69 on May 31, 2005 at 06:18 PM EDT #
HA HA
Posted by Rohan Pinto on June 01, 2005 at 07:39 AM EDT #
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Posted by GHD Straighteners on September 22, 2009 at 10:45 AM EDT #
Nice post. Just ask your detractors if a traffic policeman in India has the ability to pick up his walkie talkie and get access to information from the "computerised" Regional Transportation Office about a vehicle registration or a driving license. The straight answer is NO! Pick any government website and try e mailing any of the officers. Most likely your e mails will bounce back. Let's start with bsnl.co.in
Using computers does not make us an IT power! We're not even a toilet superpower since a great deal of Indians still defecate in the open.
Posted by B S Kumar on October 04, 2009 at 11:11 AM EDT #