The Clingan Zone

Sunday June 13, 2004

I had been thinking of this topic for a while and Kieth Bierman's blog entry finally got me to blog on this.

Everything in this blog entry is 100% opinion since I have never worked with an analyst, but yes, I have opinions.

There is nothing more than I would like to see than an Analyst report with a link that says "Analyze this analysis". Click on the link and it takes you to a third-party page that says "Based on historical accuracy of this company on this topic, and this analyst in particular, there is a .4 probability that this this analysis actually means something." If you know of a web site like this, please comment on it so I can bookmark it.

And what's up with the "probability" thing? I personally think it is plausible deniability. When analysts started getting pinned to the wall, they added a "probability" factor. Now they have an out.

And are analysts completely on the level? There are those analysts who get paid to make a point. Companies pay analysts to make a point in their favor. Not coming to that conclusion means they will no longer be of value. Now, of course, coming to that point may be the 100% correct, and then the competition debunks it with their own analysis from another company (analyst shopping) who makes a 100% accurate counter point (ah, the chaos of statistics). I associate a .5 probability with this point so i have plausible deniability. How did I come up with .5? SWAG, man, SWAG. But at least I disclosed how I came about it.

Here is where I make my "reasoned argument". I remember back in ~1990 when Windows NT was being talked about taking over the world. My girlfriend at the time (now my wife) saw it on a magazine rack and said "I saw a Byte magazine cover which said, 'Is Unix Dead?'". "Uh oh, are you going to have a job next year?" Ironically, Byte magazine is dead (although byte.com is still around). Is this the enforcement of accountability for journalists and analysts? Poor analysis leads to market demand for something different? Perhaps. There are many more examples, but this is a blog, not an editorial.

After all of the blogging I have just done, would I ever want to be an analyst to "make things right"? No. I have to give my hat off to them for putting their reputation on the line. Analyst = imperfection. No one individual or company can be right 100% of the time, but where can i go to find out how often they are right so I can make a "reasoned decision"??

Posting to blogs.sun.com is the perfect opportunity to air Sun dirty laundry. You know, I don't see what others see in dirty laundry. Is it the fact they like to see others make mistakes? Is it because they can tell their friends "I know the inside scoop?" I know people that have to be the first ones to forward information they read on a website around so they can be perceived to be "in the know".

What is this obsession with seeing others either failing, having trouble or perhaps airing their greatest fears? I liken this to Reality TV. America is really into Reality TV. For international customers, Reality TV is a pseudo-live look into the lives of individuals or groups with some inane topics. I say "pseudo" because most lives are just average and boring, which makes Reality TV an oxymoron. Now we have the Hilton sisters doing another reality show. So what does this have to do with airing Sun dirty laundry? Well, I'm getting there.

Our industry is chock full of examples of this. I get a kick out of much of the rumours that flow around the net. I read some about Sun and I just wonder how people come up with some of these things. One person makes some outlandish remark, it gets repeated, they tell two friends, and they tell two friends, and so on, and so on. Pretty soon you have a rumour. No company or individual is immune. Because I see how far out of whack rumours are regarding Sun, I have learned that any rumours I come across regarding the competition are more-than-likely just as far out of whack.

Don't people have more important things to do like educate themselves with *meaningful* data, do *real* work, and investigate a company for their *real* value for solving your *real* problems? So now let me go check up on my dirty laundry to see if it is good for use. Hold on ...

OK, my dirty laundry is ready. I have this old Sun Education t-shirt I use when I do yardwork. While washing the car it got a bit wet, so I had to air it out. It is now completely dry. I feel pride in the fact hat I have just aired Sun dirty laundry.

Gotcha ... :) Next time, visit our sun.com website and get something that will *really* make you "in the know".