Wednesday July 30, 2008 Here are a couple of recent items I recommend for those of you who have a scientific interest in global warming (the Earth's climate system's response to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere):
1) If you think the whole global warming story is a sham invented by snake-oil-selling charlatans who are only pushing the story for their own ideological, political, or economic interests, then I urge you to pick up a copy of "Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal about the Current Threat -- and How to Counter It" by Wallace Broecker and Robert Kunzig. Dr. Broecker is a well-respected climate scientist with a long history examining the effects of changes in the Earth's orbital characteristics, ocean circulation, and greenhouse gases on our ocean-atmosphere system. He has been affiliated with the world-renowned Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, part of Columbia University, for nearly half a century.
In this book, Dr. Broecker, and science writer Robert Kunzig, give an interesting account of the science behind our current understanding of the Earth's climate system. It is well-balanced and authoritative, and an easy read for scientists and non-scientists alike. The authors then go beyond examining the effects of a doubling or tripling atmospheric CO2 and propose some ideas for slowing or stopping the increase of anthropogenically-produced atmospheric CO2. They constrain their proposals by the physical scale of the problem, providing scientific rigor to their analysis -- an aspect often lacking in pop-science books about the greenhouse effect.
This book is well worth the read -- and is available both for purchase (online or at bookstores) and at libraries.
2) If you think that climate scientists have this whole global warming thing all figured out such that we now know exactly when and where the atmosphere and oceans will warm and by how much, and exactly what effects these changes will have on day-to-day weather, then you might want to skim through an article in this month's edition of the "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society." The article is entitled "The Consequences of Not Knowing Low- and High-Latitude Climate Sensitivity" and is by Dr. David Rind from The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). As with the Lamont-Doherty lab mentioned above the scientists at GISS have been studying the Earth's climate system for a long time, in this case more than 50 years. GISS has a world-renowned reputation as one of the leading centers for climate research.
Dr. Rind's paper is written by a meteorologist for meteorologists -- it assumes an extensive amount of meteorological expertise. However, the gist of the paper describes how climate scientists don't know yet how sensitive the Earth's ocean-atmosphere system will be to warming associated with the increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is true despite the tremendous advances made by climate scientists over the last 40 years, and despite the tremendous increases in computer technology over the same period. Even something seemingly as "basic" as how much the climate of the polar regions will change as compared to the tropics is uncertain. The main causes for the uncertainty are associated with some of the most difficult problems climate scientists are working on today: the response of the tropical atmosphere to warming, how global cloud distribution will change with warming, how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will vary, the changes of low clouds in the Arctic, the response of global ocean circulations to warming, the variations in the El Nino pattern over the tropical Pacific. With such significant gaps in our knowledge, there are still great uncertainties about how the Earth's ocean-atmosphere system will respond during a global warming induced by an increase in greenhouse gases. In particular, because so much is yet to be learned, there are even greater uncertainties about how the Earth's climate will change regionally (such as, what will happen over the United States vs. over Europe). The good news is that climate scientists are filling the knowledge gaps quickly. The bad news is this will take time. Dr. Rind summarizes this at the end of the paper by saying, "There is no guarantee that these issues will be resolved before a substantial global warming impact is upon us. How we proceed to act in an environment of uncertainty will, perhaps, become as great a challenge as dealing with global warming itself."
Links:
Abstract
The complete paper
Saturday April 12, 2008 This 30-second timelapse shows about 3 hours of afternoon weather over the central Rockies from two weeks ago, 29 March. The camera is pointed to the south-southeast. The images used in the animation were taken once every 20 seconds. The location is just west of the Continental Divide in the Colorado Rockies, about 100 miles due west of Sun's Broomfield, Colorado campus.
[Weather Minutiae only a Meteorologist could Love] ( April 12, 2008 12:11 PM ) Permalink Comments [2]
Tuesday June 26, 2007 Some pictures from Monday evening, 25 June 2007:
1) Mammatus clouds in the anvil of a strong thunderstorm about 15 miles to the east of Littleton:
2) Crepuscular rays at the edge of the anvil:
3) Sunset, 25 June 2007:
...and it only got to 99˚ (Fahrenheit) today, missing today's record high temperature (and, also, yesterday's new record high) by 1˚ (F).
(Tomorrow will be much cooler, 20˚ (F) cooler, as more pleasant air comes down along the Front Range from Montana and Wyoming -- a much needed break from the heat.)
Technorati tags: crepuscular hot mammatus temperature weather
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[Weather Minutiae only a Meteorologist could Love] ( June 26, 2007 12:16 AM ) Permalink |
Sunday June 24, 2007 With apologies to Glenn Frey, it was another hot one in Sun-Broomfield-land today -- so hot, in fact, we now need 3 digits (Fahrenheit) to depict the high temperature...
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
303 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2007
..NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET IN DENVER
THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT CLIMBED TO 100 DEGREES AT 218 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 99 DEGREES SET IN 1988.
This was the 64th time the temperature has gotten into the triple digits in Denver in the 135 years that weather has been officially recorded here. It's not the earliest 100 degree temperature on record during the summer -- that happened last year when it reached 102 on June 14. A 100 degree temperature has been recorded as late in the summer as August 16 in Denver. With Denver's Bike-to-Work Day coming up on Wednesday, and with my annual participation in the event, all this hot weather has gotten me a little worried about my survivability on Wednesday. Fortunately, though, a nice shot of cool air should come down the Front Range of the central Rockies on Tuesday afternoon, so Wednesday will be bearable. Now, if I can only find a way to get around a major detour on my favorite bike trail that gets me to Sun-Broomfield...
Technorati tags: hot record-heat temperature weather
Technorati Profile [Weather Minutiae only a Meteorologist could Love] ( June 24, 2007 11:40 PM ) Permalink
Friday June 22, 2007 And I thought 97˚ (36˚ C) was hot...
After Wednesday's record-tying high temperature of 97˚ F (36˚ C), we did two better than that here in Sun-Broomfield-land yesterday:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
211 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2007
..NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET IN DENVER
THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT CLIMBED TO 99 DEGREES AT 1:26 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON SETTING A RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 98 DEGREES SET IN 1922.
With the summer solstice occurring yesterday just after noon local time (1806 GMT), it's fitting to refer to yesterday's weather as "summer heat!" Will we tie or break another record high temperature today? Fortunately, no. Some slightly cooler air moved in from the north last night while moisture arrived from the east. Today will be more like 90˚ rather than 99˚.
Technorati tags: hot record-heat temperature weather
Technorati Profile [Weather Minutiae only a Meteorologist could Love] ( June 22, 2007 08:44 AM ) Permalink
Thursday June 21, 2007 So, we've gone from record cold early in the month to this:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
205 PM MDT WED JUN 20 2007
..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED
AT 150 PM MDT...THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 97 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20 SET IN 1968 AND 1875.
I think I'd rather have the cold.
Technorati tags: record-heat temperature weather
Technorati Profile [Weather Minutiae only a Meteorologist could Love] ( June 21, 2007 09:29 AM ) Permalink
Thursday June 07, 2007 Early June along the foothills of the Rockies:
From Laramie, Wyoming, 07 June, 2007:
Time Wind Vis Weather Temp Dwpt
(MDT) (mph) (mi)
16:53 N13 4.00 Light Snow 33 33
15:53 N16G29 0.25 Snow 31 31
14:53 NW20G31 0.75 Light Snow 32 32
13:53 NW24G35 0.75 Light Snow 33 33
12:53 NW28G35 10.0 Overcast 38 30
Borrowing a line from the American lyricist Frank Loesser (of "Guys and Dolls" fame):
Baby, it's cold outside...
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
612 AM MDT FRI JUN 08 2007
..NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET IN DENVER
AT 544 AM THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DROPPED TO 31 DEGREES. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD LOW FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 37 DEGREES SET IN 1974 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.
THIS IS ALSO THE LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD AND ONLY THE THIRD TIME A TEMPERATURE OF 32 OR LOWER HAS BEEN RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE IN DENVER. THE PREVIOUS READINGS WERE 32 DEGREES IN 1919 AND 30 DEGREES IN 1951. RECORDS FOR DENVER GO BACK TO 1872.
Technorati tags: record-cold temperature weather
Technorati Profile [Weather Minutiae only a Meteorologist could Love] ( June 07, 2007 10:51 AM ) Permalink
Wednesday June 06, 2007 And, continuing from yesterday, just where did Gonu go?
About where it was predicted to go. (kudos to the JTWC!)
It skirted the coast of Oman, turned northward across the Persian Gulf, and is now about 40 nautical miles south of the Iranian coastline. The rapid weakening continued and the sustained winds at the center of the storm are down to 45 knots (quite a change from more than 150 knots just 2 days ago!). When it gets to the Iranian coast in a few hours, it will be just a minimal tropical cyclone -- lots of rain, but not much wind.
Two views from today:
1) Weather satellite image from 15 hours ago (1200 GMT):
2) Track and forecast from about 12 hours ago (1800 GMT):
Tuesday June 05, 2007 Gonu: An Unusual Weather Event
Gonu, a relatively rare tropical cyclone (rare in the sense of where it is located and its strength) has been moving northwestward through the Arabian Sea the past two days. Its significance is due to its proximity to the oil production areas and shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. Fortunately, Gonu is now weakening rather rapidly as it incorporates (entrains) dry air aloft northwest of the system over the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf. It is expected to continue to weaken as it brushes by the Oman coast and curves northward into southeastern Iran, reaching Iran as a 70kt tropical cyclone in about 30 hours. A few interesting images of the storm follow:
1) Tropical Cyclone Gonu, 04 June 2007, 0600 GMT
(near its peak intensity, sustained winds 130kt, gusts to 160kt)
2) Tropical Cyclone Gonu, 05 June 2007, 1130 GMT
(sustained winds of 105kt, gusts to 130kt)
3) Forecast track and intensity as of 05 June 2007, 1500 GMT
(from the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
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