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20070514 Monday May 14, 2007
暗恋桃花源

周六晚去保利看赖声川的"暗恋桃花源." 笑的肚子痛到不行.

一个平凡, 公式化, 无创意的解放期悲剧, 加上另一个平凡 , 公式化, 无创意的搞笑古装桃花源记, 居然一加一变成一百. 引人深思又捧腹不止. 难怪场场满座.

人到了困难的时候, 就想逃, 想放弃, 一走了之. 找个人间天堂, 快乐轻松. 别人收拾好了, 再回来奋斗接收. 一切都干干净净, 从头来过. 这"逃"的吸引力之大, 自古中西名作不断. 但想归想, 人都明白, 现实是不可能的. 只有一笑, 带点苦吧.

所以引人深思又捧腹不止. 叹. 读原文呗.


桃花源记
作者: 陶渊明

    晋太元中,武陵人捕鱼为业,缘溪行,忘路之远近。忽逢桃花林,夹岸数百步,中无杂树,芳草鲜美,落英缤纷,渔人甚异之。复前行,欲穷其林。林尽水源,便得一山,山有小口,仿佛若有光,便舍船从口入。初极狭,才通人,复行数十步,豁然开朗。土地平旷,屋舍俨然,有良田美池桑竹之属。阡陌交通,鸡犬相闻。其中往来种作,男女衣著,悉如外人。黄发垂髫,并怡然自乐。

  见渔人,乃大惊,问所从来。具答之。便要还家,设酒杀鸡作食。村中闻有此人,咸来问讯。自云先世避秦时乱,率妻子邑人来此绝境,不复出焉,遂与外人间隔。问今是何世,乃不知有汉,无论魏晋。此人一一为具言所闻,皆叹惋。余人各复延至其家,皆出洒食。停数日,辞去。

  此中人语云,不足为外人道也。既出,得其船,便扶向路,处处志之。及郡下,诣太守说如此。太守即遣人随其往,寻向所志,遂迷不复得路。南阳刘子骥,高尚士也,闻之,欣然规往,未果。寻病终。后遂无问津者。


posted by syw May 14 2007, 05:29:20 PM CST Permalink Comments [1]

20070414 Saturday April 14, 2007
Impossible Dreams
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
Jared Diamond

ISBN: 978-0670033379
Pub. Date: December 29, 2004
Publisher: Viking Adult

After Guns, Germs, and Steel, I became a Jared Diamond fan. Several people told me about this book and I bought a copy almost immediately. Collapse popped to the top of my reading queue around Christmas of 2006. I have taken it onto several cross-Pacific trips. It is not a fast-paced book and I cannot digest many pages at a time. This book impressed me deeply. It joined my conversations all the time.

I highly recommend it. Even that I don't agree with it.

Mr. Diamond presented undisputed evidences that led to compelling conclusions. But what point is this tome that, realistically, offers no fair or humane solutions? It is clear that Mr. Diamond wanted the world, particularly the political leaders, particularly those in the US, to change. But he positioned himself as a scientist. In that, he lacked imagination and inspirations. Maybe, just perhaps, that alternative endings are possible, human beings are more ingenious, or we just don't want to be depressed?

He also tore a rift, maybe unintentionally, between the first and third worlds.

Inflammatorily paraphrased:
You third world people, Chinese and Indian in particular, can forget about the lifestyles of us first-worlders. The world is not enough for all of us. Your sheer population is dragging the earth to its demise. Do not infest us. Do not eat like us. Do not consume energy like us. Do not have the same environmental impact like us. Otherwise, we are all going to suffer dire consequences — war is a possible solution.

The world is not enough. Fixed resources are depleted. Renewable ones are over-farmed, over-logged, or over-fished to exhaustion. When the world becomes not enough, wars happen. Americans are not going to let gasoline price go up to $50 per gallon. There will be military actions before that. War is a effective tool for population control and may just be the only solution.

But maybe it is big enough? Although fossil fuels are not, energy is really renewable. (We won't go into the 2nd law of thermodynamics here.) Can human come up with clean, safe, and virtually inexhaustible energy sources? Nuclear! With that, cars can be 100% electrical.

Well, the world will either collapse by nuclear wars or by other wars. We just have to deal with this. The fissure between first and third worlds takes the form of trade conflicts, immigration control, or simply violence. Not using our resources efficiently, for fear of violence, makes the violence more likely.

How about food supplies? Jared Diamond argued on two main points: it is not economical to produce certain foods in certain areas; and the world is not big enough to feed its population. Islanders should not raise cattle, Australians not sheep, (and Californian not rice.) People should eat what is most economical for them to produce. Otherwise, their environment will be irreversibly damaged. I actually agree with him here. Removal of trade barriers will take care of this.

Jared's 2nd point is, again, about population control. But I simply cannot accept the scarcity of food. News channels cover more on obesity than hunger. The world is turning organic that shuns genetically modified species, pesticides, and fertilizers —- essentially making the land less productive. All hunger problems seem to be either man-made or from natural disasters. The warning that we are all going hungry does not find resonance in me.

The world is mostly oceans. If we have solved the energy problem, we have solved the fresh water problem. Desalinization is economical if we have cheap and clean energy. Geo-engineers, armed with the same energy sources, may actually solve the global warming problem too.

China pledged it renewed effort to curb energy consumption, strongly hinting the pursuit of GDP growth is not an excuse to waste energy. Cheer up, Jared. There is hope. Scaring people is not the only option.


posted by syw Apr 14 2007, 01:00:00 AM CST Permalink Comments [1]

20070320 Tuesday March 20, 2007
Feeling poetic
Perrine's Sound and Sense: An Introduction to Poetry (9th Edition)
Thomas R. Arp (Author), Laurence Perrine (Contributor), Laurence Perrine (Author)

ISBN: 978-0155030282
Pub. Date: January 1, 1997
Publisher: Harcourt Brace College Publishers; 9th edition
(It appears that the latest edition is 11th.)

One of my kids is a good poet and I found myself not capable of appreciating her works. No matter, Dad, we can fix that. She told me to buy this book about 2 and half years ago. This is definitely a personal record of longest time to finish a book. On average, it took me about 3 days to finish one page. Through those pages, I met Robert Frost, Emily Dickinson, John Donne, and Linda Pastan.

To A Daughter Leaving Home
When I taught you
at eight to ride
a bicycle, loping along
beside you
as you wobbled away
on two round wheels,
my own mouth rounding
in surprise when you pulled
ahead down the curved
path of the park,
I kept waiting
for the thud
of your crash as I
sprinted to catch up,
while you grew
smaller, more breakable
with distance,
pumping, pumping
for your life, screaming
with laughter,
the hair flapping
behind you like a
handkerchief waving
goodbye.
Linda Pastan

It turns out western poetry is much similar to Chinese. Except that, like Haiku, Chinese poems are almost entirely of fixed forms with strict rules on meter and rythm. From a text book on western poetry appreciation, I learned to appreciate poetry.

I do have many miles to go...


posted by syw Mar 20 2007, 07:25:27 PM CST Permalink Comments [2]

20061208 Friday December 08, 2006
The Thirteenth Tale: A Novel
The Thirteenth Tale: A Novel
Diane Setterfield

ISBN: 0743298020
Pub. Date: September 12, 2006
Publisher: Atria

"Dad, do you ever read books with a plot?," asked my smart-tongued kid. She concluded that my books are all boring. I must admit not having read a good story for a while now. That's why I picked up this one from the best-seller table at Barnes & Noble.

Unlike Rowling, Diane Setterfield wrote for adults. I have not been helplessly kept awake since Harry Potter #3.

Formulaic it is not. Setterfield focused on imprinting the characters so that you can see and hear them. The story is original and well structured. I found myself having to continue, knowing that I won't be able to sleep anyway.

Setterfield wrote for book lovers. Her definition, however, extends beyond the love of reading and into the fondness of book's physical attributes. Main characters all share this passion and are amateur library curators. They collect, categorize, and store books.

And what's the point of collecting multiple versions of the same book? I do appreciate a well constructed book. It will be easy to hold, to turn, and most importantly, for these pair of aging eyeballs to read. I would have possess the spirit of the book after reading it. Ink and paper do not constitute books. I generally do not read a book more than once, and definitely not for the different printing quality or binding style.


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posted by syw Dec 08 2006, 08:40:53 PM CST Permalink Comments [2]

20061124 Friday November 24, 2006
The Diamond Cutter
The Diamond Cutter: The Buddha on Strategies for Managing Your Business and Your Life
Geshe Michael Roach

ISBN: 0385497911
Pub. Date: Reprint edition (July 15, 2003)
Publisher: Doubleday

"grok." Jargon File 4.2.0. 18 Nov. 2006. Dictionary.com
/grok/, var. /grohk/ vt. [from the novel "Stranger in a Strange Land", by Robert A. Heinlein, where it is a Martian word meaning literally `to drink' and metaphorically `to be one with'] The emphatic form is `grok in fullness'. 1. To understand, usually in a global sense. Connotes intimate and exhaustive knowledge. Contrast zen, which is similar supernal understanding experienced as a single brief flash. See also glark. 2. Used of programs, may connote merely sufficient understanding. "Almost all C compilers grok the `void' type these days."

Someone close to me insisted that I read this book. He gave me a copy right before I embarked on one of those trips over a large body of water.

Must be a gimmick. Buddhism and business? I have read enough books that try to link ancient philosophies — I-Jing, Arts of War, Confucism, Taoism, etc. — with business management. Those books cheapened the ancient wisdoms which should be seriously studied as philosophical heritages, not turned into few aphorismic catch phrases and managerial quick tricks.

Michael Roach appears to be genuine. According to his book, he studied Buddhism in Tibet for years. His guru wanted him to enter business so he could become a better monk. Yes, he is a Tibetan monk, shaved and chanting, the whole sh-bang. "Geshe" is not part of his name. It is an honorific title bestowed only after passing some vigorous tests after years of studies.

Buddhism originated from India. During the Tang (618~907 AD) dynasty, it flourished in China and became the dominant religion here. All "denominations" use the same Buddhism scriptures that were translated from ancient Indian. Unlike the Bible, these translated versions stayed in the same form for over a thousand years. Scholars and gurus re-interpreted them all the time, but one could always go back to the original version. This book is based on one single scripture whose title is roughly translated into Diamond Sutra. It records one of the most important lectures from Buddha himself.

Geshe Roach first laid a foundation on his managerial approach. He then provided a recipe for 46 common managerial situations (Chapter 7). He could have ended there, but part 3 is where the real message lies.

In part 3, he revealed a few methodologies of Tibetan Buddhism studies that placed equal emphasis on bodily control, mind concentration, and theological studies. This approach is sensible. A weak body weakens the mind. If one cannot concentrate, there will be no higher understandings or progress in one's physical skills. Only with both can one achieve the ultimate level of understanding.

Geshe Roach described the simple trick of meditation. I happened to practice a version of it when I was quite young. So many people swear that this is a miracle cure for everything. I know, personally, that it works for insomnia. Meditation first clears your mind. It then allows you to think on one subject, or to plan on one project. With a clear mind, you don't need to write your thoughts down. You remember them. Geshe Roach recommends meditation every morning before the day starts. You would then have a plan for that day. The plan would be aligned with the overall plan for your life.

Simply put, meditation is to grok.

Thanks to WANG HaiLan who made this entry easier to read.


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posted by syw Nov 24 2006, 01:00:00 PM CST Permalink Comments [1]

20061108 Wednesday November 08, 2006
In China's Shadow
In China's Shadow: The Crisis of American Entrepreneurship
Reed Hundt

ISBN: 0300108524
Pub. Date: October 16, 2006
Publisher: Yale University Press

Reed Hundt was Chairman of FCC during the Clinton administration. This book has a good thesis. It is well researched and eloquently put together. But it reads like a politician's long public speech. Long.

Make no mistake about it. This book is not about China. It is about America politics. Mr. Hundt would have picked a different topic that threatens some elements of American life-style or value-system. Just that it is easier to set poeple's blood boiling with China, or the aspect of America losing to them.

Don't you see. The crisis is upon us. Draconia actions. Congress must pass laws and allocate huge budget. Administration must enact policies. Citizens must behave differently. Everyone! Everyone! Rally behind me. This is the only way for us to avert the crisis. If you don't, you will certainly regret it. You will no longer be the leader. You will become 2nd class. You will make less money. And I would have said, "I told you so." Here is the book.

Yes, he hit where it hurts — your pocket book. He sees China as both the threat and the means to America's continued prosperity; defined by taking over 70% of the value-add in the world. It can't be 70%, you see, if China is taking half of it. The only way, he stated, is to think like Cisco where John Chamber wanted to base his company's strategy entirely for China — how to sell there; how to beat the competitors from there; how to procure from there.

The description of government's invisble hand behind many events was scary. According to Hundt, Japan's decade-long depression was carefully designed by US, so was Internet and all those huge successes, like AOL, Google, eBay, etc. Government was so good that even those enterpreurs do not realize the helps government gave them. Proof? Bush administration stopped helping and we are losing the leadership in IT. Yes, he gave the government way too much credit, in both directions.

The general thesis is sound. No companies, or individual, can ignore China for the next 20 years. Only those with a clear strategy and execution strength can continue to prosper. Do you? Do we?


posted by syw Nov 08 2006, 01:59:29 PM CST Permalink

20060728 Friday July 28, 2006
Freakonomics
Freakonomics Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

ISBN: 006073132X
Pub. Date: April 2005
Publisher: HarperCollins Publishers

I am now a Steven Levitt wannabe. So much.

Have an observation. Develop a theory. Most likely, there is no freaking way to prove, or disprove, that theory. Wait. There is a chunk of data in plain sight, just overlooked by the whole world. OK, mine the data, prove the theory, and shock them, the world, that they were wrong all along. By the way, getting paid to do this too.

Imagine a conversation between Steve Levitt and a CEO.

You have excellent customer data, Sir. I did few regression analysis against an accidentally discovered set of data that can be used as the control group. It seems if you change the package to blue, spell the product name with an extra E, and change the font to sans-serif, you can double your price and double your sales volume." (Is that a smile?) "By the way, the control data were actually published by your main competitor on their web site.

Would it be so cool.


The discussion on risks was interesting. People do not perceive risks rationally. Instead of computing the expected outcome like an engineer should. Most people weigh dread factor too much. They also worry about losing control and the imminency irrationally. I found it so true. I know someone who is willing to suffer fever instead of taking a simple aspirin, because "drugs are bad for you." Guess his brain was fried already.


posted by syw Jul 28 2006, 11:42:17 AM CST Permalink

20060705 Wednesday July 05, 2006
The Wisdom of Crowds
The Wisdom of Crowds
James Surowiecki

ISBN: 0385721706
Pub. Date: August 2005
Publisher: Knopf Publishing Group

I was trained and am proud to be analytical. Give me a problem, I will analyze it and come up with a plan of attack that is reasonable and likely to succeed. This is what engineers do. It is in our blood.

As I grow older, I encountered problems that just don't fit. That the analytical approach is far from optimal. At first, I was in denial. (How can it be? Every problem can be solved this way. There is something wrong with the definition of the problem.) Now, older, I have acquired skills for other approaches. The most notable one is the strategic approach that involves the evaluation of the situation, understanding the big picture, the smart allocation of resources, and the attention to timing.

The Tipping Point teaches you to watch for, or cultivate, a sudden and massive change. Blink, from the same author, teaches the art of listening to, at least respect, your instincts. This one tries to teach you to trust crowds. All are valuable and non-analytical approaches to problem solving. I am glad to have made new acquisitions to my toolbox.


For groups to perform, the individuals must have unique, no matter how trivially small, pieces of information. They can be wrong, but must be independent. If the group is large enough, the errors cancel out each others and the result will be surprisingly accurate and good. Simply put, diversification yields good results.

Diversification is a key concept in investment. If you buy enough stocks from different sectors of the economy, their volatilities cancel out and you are left with the assured growth of the economy, and not the risk of each stock.

This makes sense. Everyone has a piece of information and, at the same time, lots of random noises. If everyone is independent, the randomness averages out and what's left is the correct information. For example, if I give everyone an evenly distributed random number from positive to negative 1000. The average must be 0, or very close to it. Some will have a number that is very "wrong," in the sense that it is very distant from the mean. But that does not matter, since large number of group takes care of the errors.

The three important elements of group wisdom are: diversification, independence, and private judgment that makes sure the members do not influence each other.

The chapter on modern corporation is the gem. Corporate America are almost always organized as hierarchical small groups. A CEO has his or her executive staff, each works with the next level but always in small number that ranges from less than 10 to 30. This turns out to be a dangerous way of doing things.

Chapter 6 offers an insight to my daily life in China. Why are American merchants more honest than their Chinese counter-parts? When you shop in America, you have relatively high confidence that you will not be grossly taken advantage of. In China, it is a crap shoot. Intense bargaining is normal, common, and very tiring. Why do everyone must waste so much energy to make sure they are not paying more than other shoppers? Because China is not capitalistic enough.

Don't get me wrong. This country is more aggressive in pushing privatization and market driven economy than any other one (including US). But they have not practiced capitalism long enough. As the result, they emphasize heavily on short-term gains that encourage exploitation for one-time deals. Mature companies, and citizens, learned that long-term gains are much better. They, therefore, establish practices that are honest and fair, since that's the only way for long-term business relationship.

To profit long and more, individuals must sacrifice some short-term benefits and be a bit less selfish. Act for the good for many is beneficial to self for the long run. Gush, we just have to have faith in this. Do we?


posted by syw Jul 05 2006, 03:00:00 PM CST Permalink Comments [1]

20060404 Tuesday April 04, 2006
Mr. China: A Memoir
Mr. China: A Memoir
Tim Clissold

ISBN: 0060761407
Pub. Date: February 2006
Publisher: HarperCollins Publishers

What do you expect?

Tim and his partner, Pat, made few hundred investments each thousands times the average annual income of an individual. They did it all over China, from the bitter-cold north-eastern corner to deep valleys of the west. They did it without any clues on how the legal system works, not knowing how businesses were conducted, without trusted local consultation, without good command on Chinese language, without any check and balance mechanism, without reliable monitoring processes. They inspect their investments once in few months, or until a crisis emerges.

He lost few deals to "creative operatives." Duh!

The book provides good entertainments. Tim's description on BaiJiu (white liquor) is hilarious. I really felt for him during the heart-attack episode. His realization of China will always pursue its "chosen path" was right on. "The civilization has always endured temporary invasions and eventually absorbed the invaders." Sometime it took a couple of hundred years and that's OK.

But as a business book, it is a yawn. When I talked to a smart venture investor in San Francisco, she was cautious, "Everyone investing in China does not make me. I need to make sure I can get good return before I pour any money into anything." The lessons Tim learned have been learned for generations. That they also apply to China is not really novelty.


posted by syw Apr 04 2006, 09:25:20 AM CST Permalink Comments [1]

20060317 Friday March 17, 2006
Guns, Germs and Steel
Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies
Jarred Diamond

ISBN: 0393317552
Pub. Date: April 1999
Publisher: Norton, W. W. & Company, Inc.

History is never the same again. Now I think of history geographically. The book, recommended by James Gosling and Bill Gates, tried to answer a daring question, "Why is the world today dominated by Eurasian descendants, instead of Australian, Native American, or African?" Jarred Diamond refused to accept the common and obvious answer that people from the Eurasia continent are genetically superior. All people are intellectually about the same, he has observed that first-handedly. There must be a different answer.

This is where you should stop reading, unless you don't mind me ruining the book.


Homo Sapien started from Africa and Eurasia. After many thousands of years, they migrated to America and Australia. When they came to the new continents, they quickly hunted all big mammals to extinction. Those mammals never saw human before and therefore defenseless. We human were more than happy to digest the protein.

Back in Eurasia, specifically around the Fertile Crescent and China, people started to develop agriculture. That changed the society to sedentary, from nomadic. Agriculture was more effective in food yield. Domesticated animals provided milk, meat, and energy other than human muscle. Population and density both increased. Technology, civilization, and political structure developed. Germs from animals jumped to human and people developed resistance to them.

But the diffusion of those advances encountered natural barriers in America and Africa. These two continents were delayed by more than 10,000 years in terms of food production technology and other progresses that come with it. Around 500 years ago, the clash happened when Eurasian developed modern ocean capable transportation.

Jarred claimed that germs Eurasian brought over killed more native Americans and Aboriginal Australian than guns. Historical records show that common germs wiping out whole native American and Aboriginal Australian tribes. Their populations reduced to a fraction of that before the encounter and the continents are now entirely dominated by Erasmus.

The most controversial chapter is the epilogue. Jarred speculated the reasons why China is less dominant than western Europeans. In that chapter, he observed something very unique about Chinese — it is the only old continental culture that remained unified for over 3000 years. Not even USA enjoys the same consistency in language and political unity. For thousands of years, China has been centrally governed. For this reason, it enjoyed centuries of leading position in technology and innovation. But since about 500 years ago, the unity reared its ugly side. A single government can stop or reverse the progress much easier than a diverse one. China stopped ocean exploration in 1500 A.D. and missed the opportunity to colonize America. European came few hundred years later and profited handsomely. Similarly, China stopped metallurgy, guns, rocket, clock, water-powered mills, etc. The diversity of Europe slowed down its innovations but also provided more venues for them to survive. Columbus, for example, tried many kingdoms before being funded by Spain. If he was in China, there will be no 2nd chance for him.


Is history predictor for future? Is so, what has Jarred taught governments and corporations today?

How exciting.


posted by syw Mar 17 2006, 04:42:51 PM CST Permalink Comments [3]

20060108 Sunday January 08, 2006
World is Flat and Moneyball

I am the least smart person in the family and proud of it.

Both daughters are bright, smart, intelligent, personable, and, I am unbiased saying this, drop-dead pretty. They read in very different styles. Younger one "binge read." She attacks a book by burying in it. Older one used to read with a computer on her side. When we were in Lake Tahoe, I noticed that she no longer. Instead, she scribbled on this blank paper bookmark once in a while.

I now hold a pen when I read. But I just scribble on the title page when something triggered a thought.


The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century
Thomas L. Friedman

ISBN: 0374292884
Pub. Date: April 2005
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Honestly, right after China Inc., I did not want to read another book on globalization. But Vijay gave us each a copy when we were in Bangalore. I binged it on the flights to US. Hey, if there is one thing this business travel is good for. I read a lot more now.

"Vanilla just won't put food on the table anymore," Tom Friedman tried waking up Americans. "You have to offer something totally unique." In this flattened world, everyone competes globally. Whatever you have that was good enough for the village, town, city, state, or even country. It is no longer. It must be the best, or most unique, in the world. Tom Friedman told a story of China selling Virgin of Guadalupe statuette in Mexico. It is not exactly a high-cost country, it has a huge distance advantage, and the statuette is it's own patron saint. Yet China has taken over this market by simply making the statuettes better and cheaper.

"Would Americans wake up," I thought when I finished the book on the flight back to Beijing. "No." IT professionals, just like auto workers in the mid-80's, are in deep denial. Instead of upgrading their skills, they spend the precious time protecting their "ways of life" and pretending their jobs cannot possibly be offshored.

Tom put it clearly. There are only 4 untouchables who cannot be offshored: special, specialized, anchored, and adaptive. Honestly, for us "normal" people, the only hope is to be adaptive. This means the way of life of getting a job after a technical degree and enjoy football over beers every weekend is no more. To survive, one must be upgrading himself constantly. Never rest, always embrace changes. It does not matter one likes this new lifestyle or not. There are billions of people over there doing exactly that. They don't mind drinking your beers, when they take over your job. Detroit has proven, unionization does not work. You compete or the factory closes. The way of life is gone.

That just does not sound American. Does it?


Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
Michael Lewis

ISBN: 0393324818
Pub. Date: April 2004
Publisher: Norton, W. W. & Company, Inc.

Moneyball is a much lighter book. It is my first ever on baseball and I learned a lot.

Major League Baseball (MLB) is a complicated sport with a very rich history. The heart of the game is the players who entered the feeder system via high-school or college drafts. The new entrants to the system go into the minor league where they are paid meagerly and watched all the time.

Once they are considered good enough. They are brought up to the "big game" where fame and money shower on them. The system is ruthless. When the talent is no longer needed, or not good enough, the player will be dropped back to the minor leaque or traded away.

Michael Lewis depicts the strange and arcane system most teams use to evaluate the players. As a contrast, Oakland A's general manager, Billy Beane, does it differently. Gosh, he was scientific. The revolutionary general manager that has a vision and the intensity to change. Clearly, he also enjoys autonomy from the owner to run the team his way, as long as he keeps on winning.

Billy Beane has a system that gives each player an "expected score per dollar" evaluation. Simply put, the objective is to win. To win a game, you must score. For baseball, scoring is a mixture of luck and player talents. If there exists a system to give the expected score of a player, per game, you can then compute the expected score of the game, given the totality of all players. Statistically, if you have enough "runs" (baseball's term on scoring), you are likely to win.

Beane's system is complicated, since players have positions in defense and try to slug when they are at bat. The system must evaluate both defensive skills and offensive ones. It is further constrained by the budget allocated by the owner. The general manager's job then becomes running a complicated linear optimization -- win enough games to enter playoff with the least amount of money. Billy Beane is so good that he routinely beats other teams that have much larger budget.

Strangely, this is more a management book than baseball. I read Michael Liewis's Liar's Poker years ago. This one is as much a pager turner.


posted by syw Jan 08 2006, 05:53:18 PM CST Permalink Comments [2]

20051129 Tuesday November 29, 2005
China Inc.: Book Review
China, Inc.: How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World
Ted C. Fishman

ISBN: 0743257529
Pub. Date: February 2005
Publisher: Simon & Schuster Adult Publishing Group

Those who do not play with China will lose out first. Those who play will lose out later. No matter what, China wins. It is destined to become the dominant economic force in the world and we all going to help.

Ted Fishman spent 300 pages to say just that. He loads it up with anecdotes and statistics that boggle and later numb the mind. Ted also gives a deep insight into how the central planning really works. I cannot help admiring what China has accomplished. In short 20 years, the government managed to transform the country. It turns its 1.3 billion population from a burden into a weapon. Western countries are all teaching and investing in China so that China can use the newly learned technologies and received funding to win the same games western countries are winning today.

Those who are interested in learning more about China have lots of reading choices. Ted Fishman could haved been more to the point and less lecturing, particularly at the end.

Quotable Quotes


In the 4 years beginning 1998, state-owned companies fired 21 million workers. That is more than all the Americans who work in manufacturing.

These people were hired with a lifetime-employment contract. They don't have severance pays, very minimal unemployment benefits, no trainings, or what-so-ever. They pretty much just got dumped on the street and left on their own.


It may be a country's physical infrastructure that ultimately makes or breaks its competitive strength. If the more immaterial assets in an economy can easily be replicated abroad - either by building them or movingt them - then the things that cannot be moved will be what set countries apart. Old-fashioned public goods such as roads, water, energy, and municipal services will be as important as the best engineers, telecommuications, and store of patents.

A similar concept was in the book of Genome. When nutrition, health care, and education become the same, the only thing that will make a difference is your genes. As global traffic, internet bandwidth, talent education, etc. equalize countries, social infra-structure become the only competitive advantage.


Pekin, Illinois

Do you know this city was named after Beijing? It was said Beijing is on the opposite side of the globe and they rename the city as such.


It is natural for countries to use their market power to gain whatever commercial advantage they can. Faulting the Chinese for extracting concessions from companies that want to play in its yard would be faultijg it for demanding what its corporate suitors have willingly agreed to. And if the Chinese usurp technology that is not rightfully theirs, it is hard to argue that the corporate victims could have expected otherwise.

The companies may have expected it, but they don't have to like it and still should demand change. But let's not fool ourselves, everyone knew what to expect.


In a country that still bitterly remembers the humiliation of colonization, turning the tables by pilfering the property of foreigners will not cause much remorse.

I disagree strongly. This concept is dangerous. Dwelling in the past and using historical victimization as the justification for wrong-doing will only cause eternal bickering.


Americans now pay out greater dividents to foreigners than they take in, now live in the world as renters rather than as landlords. Renter nations live precariously.

This is a familar line on US national debts. Somehow, US borrows its way to prosperity. Will this last? Who knows.


In China, there are as nearly as many people learning English as a second language as there are people who speak English as a first language in the United States, Canada, and Great Britian combined.

Not only China has the largest number of Chinese-speaking people. It also appears to have the 2nd largest number of English-speaking people. Wow. (India should have the honor of having the most.)


posted by syw Nov 29 2005, 02:33:26 PM CST Permalink Comments [5]

20051106 Sunday November 06, 2005
Blink book review
Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking
Malcolm Gladwell

ISBN: 0316172324
Pub. Date: January 2005
Publisher: Little, Brown & Company

Since Tipping Point was enjoyable, I picked this one up at Hong Kong airport. Malcom Gladwell explores a very different subject alone the same line -- how our minds really work. Unlike "Tipping Point" that tried to teach us how to influence a large population (or not to be influenced when someone else is doing that to us). This book tries to teach us how to make good snap decisions.

Like my other book reviews, I tend to do a "Sin-Yaw's digest" and that might ruin the book for you. Proceed if you don't mind.


Malcom Gladwell attempted two contradicting objectives: snap decisions are powerful and good, but they don't work unless you have practiced the art of "thin-slicing." If you thin-slice wrongly, snap decisions can be fatal.

"This is worthless," I thought. I knew how to make analytical decisions and I was trying to make quick and effective ones. Now you tell me I have to practice long and hard, become an expert, before I can achieve that. If I had the time to practice, I wouldn't pick up this book.

Well, that's a bit too harsh on my part.

Malcom taught me to respect and listen to my "inner voice" or "instinct." He showed that they can sometimes be more valuable than not. He taught me the value of not having too much information and not articulating verbally. Both can impair my judgement, particularly the important and urgent ones.

The stories about the "War Game" was fascinating. I guess I am always drawn to military strategies and theories. Many of the Sun-Tze philosophies were loudly echoed. That's was fun.

The chapter on "Mind Reading" was the most riveting. I found myself trying to move my facial muscles and started observing the TV charaters differently. Paul Ekman wrote several books on this subject and I intend to read at least one.


posted by syw Nov 06 2005, 10:57:26 AM CST Permalink Comments [0]

20050921 Wednesday September 21, 2005
The Tipping Point: Book Review
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference
Malcolm Gladwell

ISBN: 0316346624
Pub. Date: January 2002
Publisher: Little, Brown & Company

Malcolm Gladwell demystifies an important biological and social phenomenon - the underneath forces to make things "tip over," or the way a very large number of people get influenced, either socially or biologically. This is a competence every politician, marketeer, or terrorist would die to master. I do not imagine myself to ever try to start or organize an epidemic. The best use of this knowledge, beside as a wonderful personal enrichment (a.k.a. conversational topic), is the ability to spot the making of an epidemic and remain as an independent thinker.

The rest of this blog entry is the reader's digest version, with some personal opinions injected. It may ruin the book for you.


There are 3 rules of epidemics: the power of few, the stickiness factor, and the power of context.


posted by syw Sep 21 2005, 01:02:27 PM CST Permalink Comments [0]

20050504 Wednesday May 04, 2005
Genome: ISBN 0-06-093290-2, Matt Ridley
Am I a computer that is running a digitally written program called genome? No. I am a battlefield where genes fight for their own propagation. These genes do not really care for my well-being, they are cold and ruthless collections of proteins that use me. Just use me!
Wait a moment, I am merely a collection of proteins. Then, how do I think? Where is my soul? Do I really have free-will, or that is an illusion generated by the manipulator who crafted these genes?

These are unreal and hauting thoughts similar to Matrix, the movie. Only more real.

Matt Ridley is opinionated and convincing. He is not even trying to be fair. The best chapter is named "X and Y," in which he described how genes fight for their own propagation. The pontifications on fatalism and determinism were clearly over-done, but he is also not apologizing.

posted by syw May 04 2005, 11:02:45 AM CST Permalink Comments [1]

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