Tuesday April 29, 2008 Today is number 1,000. Where were you on August 4th, 2005? How have you changed since? Did I play a part in your life? Hopefully nicely remembered.
China teaches. Everyday I soaked up and learned. I discovered things in me that were long forgotten. I watched China, the USA, Sun Microsystems, and other companies and institutes. I smiled, I laughed, I sighed, and, many times, I found myself almost in tears.
Things are happening here with such epidemic boldness. Billions, BILLIONS of people are marching to quiet orders and shaping the earth with forces this world has never experienced before. Clearly, the world does not know how to deal with China. I don't think China does either. March on, nevertheless.
The poor touched me the most. A young man told me that his parents paid for his 4 years of college. Each year cost 3 times their total annual income as rural farmers. After he "made it" in Beijing, he bought 2 houses: one for his own family and another for his elderly parents. He told me that he will never be able to pay them back. I agreed whole-heartedly. Another told me about his college friend who eats only one meal a day. He has 500 yuans to live by every month. When inflation drove up the cafeteria meal to 15rmb (2 dollars), he cannot afford 2 meals anymore. I thought of him whenever I ordered from Starbucks.
I found Chinese entrepreneurs emancipated. For every bureaucratic inefficiency, there is an entrepreneur offering services. For every cent of arbitrage difference, there is a business exploiting it. For every profit margin, there is a hard-working person earning it. Government tries to keep up with infra-structure build-up and found capacity soaked up instantaneously. China will be fully enterprised in a decade or two. The profiting model will then change from "vacuum filling" (claiming a segment as the 1st arriver) to "competitive advantage" (trying to out-do existing players). I am curious to observe the transition then.
I pondered long on the struggle of foreign enterprises, very few did well here. Root causes seem mundane and obvious: they have been inflexible, ignorant, and arrogant. Enterprises tried to import value systems with assumptions: they are poor and therefore must not know better, they are different and therefore must be inferior, they are inexperienced and therefore must be weaker. Educated will see the stupidity of these assumptions, yet corporations repeat them years after years while Chinese are agreeing with them all the way to the bank.
Everything is possible, nothing is easy. Cliché on the lives in China, yet so true. Getting a driver's license, for example, is definitively a blog-worthy topic. Most people resigned to the arbitrary, tedious, and ever-changing bureaucratic processes. For thousands of years, China governs more with processes and less with laws. In fact, the passage of a law means very little until the publication of implementation specifics. The adage "there is a counter-measure for every policies" (上有政策,下有对策) refers to the commonality of law circumvention and a reflection of the chasm between the legal systems and the reality. In China, people spend a large percentage of their attention and resources to circumvent out-dated laws and regulations creatively to get things done. Westerners gasp and Chinese just smile.
Personal milestones happened during these 1000 days too. My mother passed away, a niece married, my 2nd kid thrust me into empty-nester's club, and I re-bonded with childhood buddies. I guess milestones always happen, but China marks a distinct period for these 1000 days. I have been thinking of how to harvest from the learnings more and more these days. This means this phase will be winding down and the next will start soon. A few years from now, I will look back to see another distinct 1000-day period.
How exciting!
I always nonchalantly, of course, check if my blog is on Sun's wall of fame: the most visited Sun blogs. Today, both of my English and Chinese versions got on that board briefly. Very cool.
I actually have never figured out roller's counting algorithm. I think searches and spiders are all counted as "visits."
No matter what, this got to be a record for Sun. Yeah!
PRIVACY & SAFETY: All visitors should be aware that they have no reasonable expectation of privacy in public or private locations. All hotel rooms and offices are considered to be subject to on-site or remote technical monitoring at all times. Hotel rooms, residences and offices may be accessed at any time without the occupants consent or knowledge.
That's from the Government of the United States of America, titled "Fact Sheet: Olympics 2008."
President Bush made a compelling argument recently requesting the extension of wire-tapping authority granted by the Homeland Security Act, Mobilization Against Terrorism Act, Patriot Act, and maybe a few more. It fell on many deaf ears.
I think President Bush is envious of Hu JinTao.
电影电视中常说——“那是个大时代的故事”。大时代!要是我也生在大时代,不也和那些英雄般,救国救民、名垂千古、成大功、立大业、发大财了吗!叹,生不逢时啊!
改革开放至今,中国经济的发展可谓突飞猛进。不到30年的时间,便晋升世界经济第四强。但国富民穷,人均水平远低于其他大国。时至今日,能从国外取的经都取到了。中国的下一步,只能靠自己,没什么可以抄袭借鉴的了。环保、能源、贫富、医疗、社会老龄化、经济成长、高科技、生化、教育,样样都是大难题。解决这些难题的人,就是英雄。二十年后,大难题都被解决了,年轻人又会无比羡慕地看这一代,“你们生在大时代,多好。”你们,该五十好几了,微笑、吹吹茶、泯一口、闲谈“想当年”。
创业!年轻人要闯。但不能一窝蜂(别提软件外包或来料加工),要有个性。当下最容易的其实是下乡。中国农村有大大的潜力:人口老化、劳动力出走、土地生产力低、耕作技术过时、产销效率低。这每一个环节,都是无限的盈利空间。新一代的“知青”,凭借经营能力和农村发展大环境的优势,应该可以抓到每一个机会。
乡村平台是个大优势,也是重要契机。文革后的第一代现在已40出头,他们开创了中国的城市。十年间,打造了北京、上海、深圳,以及重要的二线城市,成为第一代富人。如今30多岁的一代,如果留在城市里,不是做伙计,就是和多十年功力的那代人竞争。如果移师农村,空间可就大多了。现在的农村如同十年前的城市,是个真空。有超多的机会等着有教育、有热忱、有计划的年轻人去发挥。但一定要回家乡发展。只有在自己的家乡,才能看清状况,取得同乡信任,从而掌握资源或渠道。
你的优势是人才、教育、乡村平台,而不是经验。别说你没做过所以不行,真空的定义就是没人有经验。
但先别一头栽进去。开始之前,先自己掂量掂量,谋定而后动,练好才下山。不然一刀就被人砍了,谈什么英雄好汉、行侠仗义?一般而言,高校学历、5年工作经验、能待人接物、能做项目管理,再有一两年的积蓄就可以开始了。再想想:
志气够大么?天下没有什么事是做不到的,只有不敢做的。成大功、立大业、发大财、利众人。多大?关乎国家政策、万人企业、亿万财富、千万人民。不要胆怯,不要妄自菲薄。刘邦当年几岁?孙中山呢?你为什么不行?
要能坚持。大事不是三年五载就能做出来的。半途而废、目光短浅,是混不出什么名堂的。从刘邦到孙中山,哪个布衣卿相、革命英雄的路是两三步走完的?一步登天的想法趁早抛开,也不要找裙带、当太子党或拉关系。一步一个脚印,能行万里。
要有方法。第一步是什么?第二步呢?不用先想好十步,但至少得有三五步。这就是为何要有那五年经验的原因喽!在社会上要学什么?就是如何做计划,如何应变。没计划不能成大事,不能应变两三下就完了。一个简单的准则就是有个三年计划,其中最重要的是现金流及商业模式。现金多少进多少出?生意的成本结构如何?
要有拍档。艰苦而漫长的路,要大家相互扶持。事情大了,一个人看不准,照顾不过来。拍档要能同甘也能共苦。不一定是朋友,但一定是志同道合之人。一干人的角色职责需要明确,也得互相信任。这很不容易,重要的是宁缺勿滥。选错了再换可就难了。
还犹豫什么?看看信息化、计划流程、管理系统、资源分配,哪样不把效率提高几倍?时势造英雄,英雄出少年。人生只能活一次。有教育、有经验、有积蓄、有计划的你,还等什么呢?
It is not that easy to use only 100 words.
Hal said, "once the food intake is set, the engineering output can follow." That really cracked me up. I have always known that foods are such powerful motiviator for engineering behavior, but never put it so poetically like Hal.
Long time ago, I lost a bet and ended up paying for 4 5-gallon Gelato ice-cream from Palo Alto's Michael's Gelato & Cafe. When they arrived, I, first and only time used the public announcement system for the company. The thunder of stampeding engineers was scary. 25 or so young engineers were dreamily happy after about 30 minutes with 4 empty containers on the table.
Every Friday, Sun's China engineering center hosts a teatime. We buy cookies and bakeries from a local store together with soft drinks. The feast starts after a forum where someone will share an interesting topic with free participants. The most interesting observation is always the time for the foods to disappear.
Fuel for innovations.
Check into any business hotel in Asia, you find a basketful of stuff in the bathroom: tooth brush, razor, comb, shower cap, etc. They are mostly cheap stuffs, but useful nevertheless.
In the USA, they are simply not there. I am talking about the same hotel chain: Hyatt, Marriott, Westin, etc.
I always bring my toiletry bag with me anyway. But this is a very curiously different custom.
I am in California (again) attending a few days' internal meetings. When I am here, I usually drive to work from Cupertino to Menlo Park. The normal way will be Highway 85 connecting to 101 and exiting at Willow.
In San Francisco Bay Area, almost all highways have one lane marked as "car pool lane." Only cars with more than 1 person may drive on these lanes. Californians like to enact laws to influence social behavior. Car pool lanes is one of those thing. In that spirit, hybrid cars, even within only one person in them, may drive on those lanes too.
This morning, driving by myself, 6 Toyota Prius zoomed past me in the car-pool lane. Yes, 6 in a row proudly enjoying their privilege.
Only in California.
You read my A New World, Again blog. You wondered, where is that new web site and blog I set up? Did I do anything interesting over there different from here?
There will be.
Someone once said to me, "Blogging changed my life. I now view everything as how to blog about it." I am not that extreme. I am, however, very aware of Sun's hosting role in my blogs. I want to write things that really have nothing to do with Sun: a memoir, a fiction, some politically incorrect opinions, etc. I would share them with the public, a different one that overlaps, but not coincides, with the readership from blogs.sun.com/syw.
This is the intriguing characteristic of communities: one and so many at the same time. An individual can be a member of many communities and maintains his or her distinctness among all of them. I am part of many communities, one of them is Sun employees. Another one exhibits as Nomadic Minds. These two blogs will diverge and frequently overlap, just like myself belonging to many communities that intertwine.
Hope to see you in both worlds.
What a game! SuperBowls historically are boring. Guacamole, tortilla chips, pizzas, and, of course, lots of beers kept us in the game. SuperBowl party is as much as an excuse to ignore all social or dietary rules as a serious sport event.
This one is different, a nail biter, a shouter, a surprise, and worth every guacamole and chips. I carefully computed the time difference and woke up early searching for the game. ESPN, Star Sports, or other usual US channels all doing something else. Eventually, I found a Japanese channel that carried the game live.
Here I am, watching SuperBowl at 6am with Japanese commentaries with a tolerating and wife trying not to wake up.
Contrary to its name, American Football is really closer to Rugby than Soccer. The objective of the offending side is to advance the ball until it enters the end-zone. It has 4 opportunities to move forward 10 yards. If successful, it gets another 4 chances. Otherwise, it must yield the possession of the ball to the other side.
The players wear protective gears underneath the uniforms to make them look super-humanly strong. The helmets and the general atmosphere make it like a battle.
And a battle it was. New England Patriots entered the game with a historical perfect record of 18 wins and zero losses. Tom Brady, its quarterback, is experienced and in his prime. The game looks all but claimed before it started. Soon, Patriots was ahead 7 to 3. It looks like another boring game.
By the 4th quarter, New York Giant scores a touch-down and was ahead 10 to 7. No problem, Tom Brady coolly threw a touch-down and New England was ahead, again, 14 to 10. New York had less than 3 minutes left. Quarterback Eli Manning needed to score, quickly. He used up all 3 time-outs, miraculously connected with his wide receivers, and dramatically made a touch-down with 35 seconds left for Tom Brady to perform his magic. He needed more than that and left Arizona without a SuperBowl ring.
Over a mountain of snow, on the ski lift, at Tahoe, Nevada side, I tried to converse with this young snowboarder. Ski lifts stop and go that day. It can be a long ride uphill, even longer in silence.
And it became too short. This kid (a late teenager) has her own domain; she has her own blog, photo galleries, and an on-line fiction in the works. She is adapt with Photoshop, PHP, JavaScript, sound editing (so that she can PodCast), video editing (so that she can YouTube), etc. She does not know what OS the server runs. She interacts with the host server via ftp and a simple "control panel" interface. She pays for these services out of her allowance: about US$30 for 6 months.
What has this world come down to? This is an ordinary wiz kid. She has skills and resources available only to highly paid, well budgeted professionals with several years ago. Yet she believes she is just a kid trying to snowboard better. What used to be a career is now a junior's hobby, and not even a serious one. (Her hobby is snowboarding and creative writing. Web is for keeping up with her friends.)
Am I so out of touch with the real world now? I can hear my kid teasing me, "Daddy, you are oohhld."
I went home, registered a domain, and signed up a hosting service. I downloaded WordPress and experienced their famous 5-minute installation. I perused a large collection of themes, chose one, and customized it with simple PhotoShop and a bit PHP. After that, I imported most of my current blog entries. The whole thing took about few hours over 3 days. The theme selection and customization took the longest time.
What an experience! The kid is much less impressive and intimidating after. I have experienced, first handedly, probably a bit late, this new world I am living. I can do everything the kid did at ease (technically speaking, not content-wise or stylistically) and at the price that is negligible to all businesses. It is easy, it is cheap, it serves all purposes. The technologies have matured for the mass.
Embrace for impact.
I rarely have writer's blocks on concepts; it is the mincing of words that stumped me. I envy those who have proses flowing out of the keyboard effortlessly. To me, chiseling on granite.
It seems fitting to commemorate the passing of 2007 with a blog. What exactly to write stomped me for days. The year was a big motion blur. I never had time to reflect and digest what happened.
My travel spreadsheet shows that I made 13 international trips in 2007 (and several China domestic ones). It is really profoundly pathetic that one has a travel spreadsheet. Thirteen trips translate to an average of alternating 18 days at home and 10 on the road. I am always away from my family. I became chemically dependent on sleeping while traveling. I ate unhealthy foods (weakened will power) and exercised much less when traveling. On the bright side, I blogged regularly and read much more too.
This is the milestone 1st empty nester year. The younger daughter cut her hair short and spread her wings to a US college. She left behind much to tidy up and an eerie empty echo in her room. The well-made bed and uncluttered carpet startled me at first. It took a while to remember there is no longer a teenager living there. I will call her to dinner only to swallow the sound half-way. This is fine. We did this once with the older one. It will pass, in few decades.
Several vacational trips with friends and family are so precious. All of us are coming of ages now. Weakened muscles, slack skins, and senility are common to us. Few drinks at the dinner will find us all snoozed at the sofa. The two most talked about topics are investment and chronic diseases. Hey, lives are good. Let's play "When I'm 64" instead of "Ob-la-di, Ob-la-da."
China quickened her already break-neck speed growth; work intensified few notches up. My flight schedule is a clear indicator. As I rooted deeper in China, every trip back to US felt less like going home. I may be approaching that invisible point of no return. This is a bit scary.
2008 scares me. I can feel its enormity and speed. I am not prepared for 2008. Then again, nor was I 12 months ago.
Reuters, on Dec. 19, reported that Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said on Wednesday he would ban all toys made in China. "The Japanese do this on food, they basically say to China, you cannot import food unless you meet our safety inspectors." He said.
Who gets hurt if the US bans China-made toys?
Factories in ShenZhen, China, made the toys. They came to the US most likely at the Long Beach port. From there trucks carry them to to a store near a consumer. This consumer pays for the toy and give it to someone, probably a child.
During this whole process, the manufacturing part (in China) got just a fraction of the total value. Most of the money goes to the retail chain and the toy brand owner, like Mattel, a US company. Mattel employs many US employees. More importantly, it has many US shareholders. Banning toys import hurt the US more than China.
Many unsafe toys are made in China, but not all bad toys are made in China. China made many unsafe toys, but not all toys made in China are not safe. China is not the only country that produces unsafe toys, nor is she producing only unsafe toys. The criteria of the ban, as proposed by Mr. Obama, is not logical in achieving the goal — allegedly to eliminate all unsafe toy from US market.
This proposal hurts US economy and is not effective in achieving its goal.
What's really going with this subprime thing? Why is it wreaking havoc for the USA, even the world?

In USA, like most of the world, people borrow from the bank to buy houses. If the borrower checks out, he or she gets the house and pays monthly mortgages for a long, long time. For those who the banks think are too risky, that they may not afford the monthly mortages, they are out of luck.
Then someone invented subprime: loans with very low mortage payments. All of the sudden, many more can afford houses. It is good for everyone: developers keep on building, real estate agents keep on selling, consumers keep on buying houses, and banks keep on lending money and raking in interest payments.
There is a catch. The payments are low only for a while, in a few years bank will drasticallly increase the monthly payment. There is no free lunch. Those people really just shifted payments to the future. The loan becomes a race: or gamble. The house buyers need to generate higher income, refinance the loan, or sell the house before the payment goes up. Otherwise, the bank will foreclose the house and evict them.
The gambling factor turned housing market speculative. The recipe is simple and straight-forward. Buy with cheap loans. Sell quickly whenever the price goes up. Pay back the loan. Repeat. Wait! This looks like the famous bubble. The price cannot keep on going up. The last one who cannot sell will lose everything and face bubble burst.
Some loan agents turned nasty in certain areas. They lured people with "cheap money" and waited. In a few years, either they make lots of money with the higher interest, or they get the collateral when the borrower cannot make payments. It is predatory.
It gets even worse. Since banks knew these loans are risky, they unloaded them quickly. They will bundle these loans together and sell it to the general public as a "high yield annuity." Banks keep the proceeds from selling the package and the general public owne those risky loans, now disguised as high-yield investments. This is almost a scam.
Finally, future arrived. The housing bubble reached the last fools: the one who cannot sell his/her house. The victims of predatory loans bankrupted. The banks cannot dispose thousands of foreclosed houses. The investors lost money. Institutes that underwrote those investments must close. It is a big a mess.

Simply, subprimes infuse the society with money from the future. US consumers simply spent those money, instead of putting them to good uses. When the future catches up, there is no money to pay back. Economy shrinks, companies bankrupt, people lose jobs, and lives become hard.
Governments knew that it is much better for countries to grow steadily than gyrate between booms and busts. This means the scape-goat hunting season is now open. Hey, some heads must roll.
You know it is coming and you are defenseless as naked. Yes, the cold season is upon us. Bring out the usual arsenal: the hand sanitizers, sometimes just soap and water; the Airborne style homeo preventives, including the trusted high-dosage vitamin-C; even the flu-shot in hope that the recipe is right this year — all in vain. Sneeze, cough, running nose, fever, watery eyes. You've got it. Keep yourself hydrated and rested. It will pass in a week or two. There is nothing you can do now. Or, is there?
There is the recent Zinc lozenges surge. Take several a day and you heal faster. Of course we will always have chicken soup and that nose twitching warm lemon and honey drink.
Visitors to China may peruse the impressive collection of herbal cold remedies in any pharmacy here. The lack of (western) scientific credential does not equate ineffectiveness or shortage of testimonies. In fact, many use them before those chemically synthesized healing options. Tastes like tea: strong and pungent.
TongRenTang (同仁堂) is the golden brand for Chinese herbal medicines. Two of their classic recipes rake in millions every year in this season. BanLanGen (板蓝根) became the miracle elixir during the SARS episode. GanMaoQingRe KeLi (感冒清热颗粒) packages literally fly off the shelf whenever someone in the office sneezes.
As an experiment, I bought 10 boxes each last year to the office and offered them to whomever. They disappeared with a trailing blue smoke. A few days ago, I brought in 20 boxes each. Gone in a flash too. My unscientific survey shows over 80% of Sun's China employees will take them as preventive measure or to speed up recovery. Even westerners also swear by them.
And the best part? It costs 10rmb per box of 10 doses. I think that's cheaper than chicken soup.